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Have The Wheels Come Off the Autonomous Vehicle Bandwagon?

Thomas J. Bamonte Assistant Executive Director, Strategy & InnovationNorth Texas Tollway Authority Twitter: @TomBamonte

November 12, 2015

ITS TEXAS 2015

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OVERVIEW

Long road to autonomous vehiclesObstacles facing autonomous vehiclesDestination

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

1920’s

The radio-operated automobile, Linrrican Wonder, 1925

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

General Motors' Firebird II was described as having an "electronic brain" that allowed it to move into a lane with a metal conductor and follow it along.

1950’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s

“Want to sit back and relax? Well then, set in the speed you want to fly and switch over to automatic guidance. Release the stick, and Firebird III is on its own.” – Firebird III advertisement, late 1950s.

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1960’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1970’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1980’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1990’s National Automated Highway System

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2000’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2010

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2015

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

2030

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GOOGLEGOOGLE HUBRIS?

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Complex operating environment

Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

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Technical Limits on sensor capabilities

Weather Obstructed intersections

High processing power requirements High safety expectations

Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

Legal Are driverless vehicles legal? Who is liable for accidents? Who owns the data? Privacy Cybersecurity

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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

Ethics: Kids or collisions? Demand to program “ethics” No consensus on the ethical code

Will Driverless Cars Be Ethical Killers?

Designed to kill? The uncomfortable ethics of driverless cars

Who Will Driverless Cars Decide To Kill?A question that will plague the autonomous car industry

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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

Fear of the machine Loss of control Safety fears Personal autonomy Privacy invasion

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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

Consumer acceptance Driving = fun Driving = control Value proposition AVs = Segway on four wheels?

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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles

Political/Economic Resistance Professional drivers Body shops Parking lot operators Insurance companies Drive through businesses

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Vehicle Autonomy Will Come Gradually

Low-speed environments

Controlled environments

Transit

Trucking

Fleets

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Vehicle Autonomy Will Come Gradually

Well marked and mapped streets/highways key Machine-visible Lanes known and evident Conditions communicated and up-to-date Surprises minimized

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No Car Stands Alone

Key to vehicle autonomy is vehicle connection Infrastructure information makes smart cars smarter Vehicles teach/learn from each other in real time Costs and liability shared, accelerating deployment

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Destination

Autonomous vehicle technology key to improving surface transportation

Highway ITS role will change Past: Highway data to TMC to driver eyeballs Future: Vehicles harvest highway data and send to other vehicles via

cloud and/or V2V technology TMC role shifts

No truly autonomous vehicles; rather automated vehicle operation supported by multiple data streams

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When?

Past suggests rapid adoption 1898: 800 registered cars 1908: Model T introduced 1927: 19 million cars on the road

Over half of American families had a carPresent suggests rapid adoption

Smartphones went from 5% to 40% of market in 4 years

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Future?

Our timeline (per Bloomberg) 2010: Google tests driverless car on public roads 2012: Nevada licenses first driverless car 2015: Tesla releases Autopilot 2017: “SuperCruise” and other semi-autonomous features 2020: Extensive AV use in controlled/low-speed environments 2025: Fully autonomous vehicles available 2030: Driverless fleets (e.g., Uber) 2045: Majority of vehicles autonomous 2050: Major road capacity benefits realized (2x-5x) 2060: Autonomous vehicles mandatory

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Our Mission

North Texas Tollway Authority

Provide a safe and reliable toll road system Increase value and mobility options for customers Operate the Authority in a businesslike manner Protect our bondholders Partner to meet our region’s growing need for transportation infrastructure

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Connection Autonomy

Processing power demands distributedMapping duties sharedMachine vision extended beyond vehicleVehicles teach/learn from each otherMore parties with financial/liabilty stake in systemSafety enhanced

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition

“The world we are now seeing is a vision, an artistic conception, which may undergo many changes as it develops into the great realities of tomorrow.”- New York World’s Fair, “Futurama: Highways & Horizons,” 1939. Credit: General Motors

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

No Hands Across America

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

2000’s

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

2000’s

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Transit

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Low-speed environments (GET BETTER PICTURE)

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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles

2000’s

Robot Buses Are Coming To America, To Pave The Way For Driverless CarsFirst, a quiet business park. Next, the world.