Post on 18-Jan-2018
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Heavy precipitationHeavy precipitationPoland under water, July 1997Poland under water, July 1997
Group 13
Convective closure Convective closure shemesshemes Domain size & resolutionDomain size & resolution
Soil moistureSoil moisture Boundary conditionsBoundary conditions
T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan)E. Vanvyve (Belgium)M. Liszewska (Poland)
The flood of July 1997 in PolandThe flood of July 1997 in PolandWroclaw
1st flood peak
2nd flood peak
What did we do ?What did we do ?
RegCMBoundary conditions
NCEP
ECMWF
Small domain40/60 km
Large domain60 km
Fritsch & Chappell
Arakawa & Schubert
PlanPlan
ResultsResults Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary
conditionsconditions
Sensitivity to soil moistureSensitivity to soil moisture
Sensitivity to domain size and resolutionSensitivity to domain size and resolution
ConclusionConclusion
CC shemes & BCs - PCC shemes & BCs - Psurfacesurface (monthly (monthly mean)mean)
Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell
NCEP
ECMWF
CC shemes & BCs – TCC shemes & BCs – T2m2m (monthly (monthly mean)mean)
Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell
NCEP
ECMWF
CRU
CC shemes & BCs - precipitation (monthly CC shemes & BCs - precipitation (monthly rate)rate)
Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell
NCEP
ECMWF
CRU
CC shemes & BCs - Precipitation (6h)CC shemes & BCs - Precipitation (6h)
Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell
NCEP
ECMWF
Average on the flood area
PlanPlan
ResultsResults Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary
conditionsconditions
Sensitivity to soil moistureSensitivity to soil moisture
Sensitivity to domain size and resolutionSensitivity to domain size and resolution
ConclusionConclusion
How the soil moisture can influence the How the soil moisture can influence the precipitation ?precipitation ?
Initial soil moisture in andInitial soil moisture in andaround the flood areaaround the flood areaset to 100%.set to 100%.
Precipitation for the 2 flood peaksPrecipitation for the 2 flood peaks
Sensitivity to soil moistureSensitivity to soil moisture
Sensitivity to the soil moistureSensitivity to the soil moisture1st flood peak
(4-7th July)2nd flood peak(18-20th July)
“normal”soil
moisture
“modified”
soilmoisture
1st flood peak
2nd flood peak
NCEPNCEPFritsch & Fritsch & ChappellChappell
PlanPlan
ResultsResults Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary
conditionsconditions
Sensitivity to soil moistureSensitivity to soil moisture
Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolutionSensitivity to the domain size and the resolution
ConclusionConclusion
Sensitivity to domain size and Sensitivity to domain size and resolutionresolution
“small” domain – 60 km
“small” domain – 40 km
totalprecipitatio
n
convectiveprecipitatio
n
Average on the 3 days of the 2nd flood peak“large” domain – 60
km
NCEPNCEPArakawa & Arakawa & SchubertSchubert
PlanPlan
Simulations setupSimulations setup ResultsResults
Sensitivity toSensitivity to convective closure schemesconvective closure schemes boundary conditionsboundary conditions
Does the soil moisture matter for the peak flood ?Does the soil moisture matter for the peak flood ? Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolutionSensitivity to the domain size and the resolution
ConclusionConclusion
Preliminary conclusionPreliminary conclusion
Sensitivity to forcing fieldsSensitivity to forcing fields no difference for monthly mean Tno difference for monthly mean T2m2m and P and Psurfacesurface NCEP seems dryer than ECMWFNCEP seems dryer than ECMWF
Sensitivity to convective closure schemesSensitivity to convective closure schemes no difference for monthly mean Tno difference for monthly mean T2m2m and P and Psurfacesurface regional precipitation pattern capturedregional precipitation pattern captured flood peaks more or less corresponding to the real situationflood peaks more or less corresponding to the real situation
Sensitivity to soil moistureSensitivity to soil moisture difficult to say, more investigation neededdifficult to say, more investigation needed
Sensitivity to domain size and resolutionSensitivity to domain size and resolution more detailed convective precipitation pattern for higher more detailed convective precipitation pattern for higher
resolutionresolution
Thanks for your patience !Thanks for your patience !
Last words …Last words …
Our first conclusion was :Our first conclusion was :““Still a lot of very hard work and white nights …”Still a lot of very hard work and white nights …”That was true !!That was true !!
Sensitivity to CC schemes and BCsSensitivity to CC schemes and BCs
DomainDomain ““small” domain (40*50*18)small” domain (40*50*18) 60 km resolution60 km resolution
Convective closure schemesConvective closure schemes Arakawa & SchubertArakawa & Schubert Fritsch & ChappellFritsch & Chappell
Boundary conditionsBoundary conditions NCEPNCEP ECMWFECMWF
Monthly/daily pressure, temperature and Monthly/daily pressure, temperature and precipitationprecipitation