Post on 01-Jan-2016
transcript
Héctor PalominoDirector of StudiesLabour Relations
SSPTyEL
RIALQuebec City
24/25 February 2009
Impact of the Global Impact of the Global
Crisis on the Argentine Crisis on the Argentine
Labour MarketLabour Market
I. Recent evolution of the economy and employment
in Argentina
• GDP GROWTH RATE OVER 2003–08: ANNUAL AVERAGE OF 8.6%
• URBAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE OVER 2003–08: 25%
• FALL IN THE OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: FROM 20% OF THE EAP IN Q1/2003 TO 7.3% IN Q4/2008
• NEW EMPLOYMENT REGIME: RISING NUMBER OF JOBS REGISTERED WITH SOCIAL SECURITY, AND REDUCTION OF UNREGISTERED EMPLOYMENT (POSITIVE SUBSTITUTION)
• EMPLOYMENT AT THE HEART OF PUBLIC POLICIES
Argentina: GDP evolution 1996–2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
ISI MODEL CRISIS NEOLIBERAL MODEL CRISIS
HIPER TEQUILA
END OFCONVERTIBILITY
Evolution of urban employment 2003–08
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1°Trim03
2°Trim03
3°Trim03
4°Trim03
1°Trim04
2°Trim04
3°Trim04
4°Trim04
1°Trim05
2°Trim05
3°Trim05
4°Trim05
1°Trim06
2°Trim06
3°Trim06
4°Trim06
1°trim07
2°trim07
3°trim07
4°trim07
1°trim08
2°trim08
3°trim08
4°trim08
% Change Q1/ 03 – Q4/ 08
= + 25%
UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT
2003–08
17.3
13.6
11.6
10.2
8.57.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
year
UNEMPLOYEDUNDEREMPLOYED
Evolution of registered Evolution of registered employment employment
January 2002 – December 2008January 2002 – December 2008
135
100
90
100
110
120
130
140
Ene-
02
Abr-0
2
Jul-0
2
Oct-0
2
Ene-
03
Abr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-0
3
Ene-
04
Abr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-0
4
Ene-
05
Abr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-0
5
Ene-
06
Abr-0
6
Jul-0
6
Oct-0
6
Ene-
07
Abr-0
7
Jul-0
7
Oct-0
7
Ene-
08
Abr-0
8
Jul-0
8
Oct-0
8
Change Jan 02 – Dec 08
= +35%
Source: SSPTyEL – DGEyEL, based on EIL (MTEySS).
Evolution of the unregistered employment rate, 2003–08
Q1/2003 – Q4/2004
37,8
36,3
49,7
32,0
34,0
36,0
38,0
40,0
42,0
44,0
46,0
48,0
50,0
52,0
1° Tr
im 0
3
2° Tr
im 0
3
3° Tr
im 0
3
4° Tr
im 0
3
1° Tr
im 0
4
2° Tr
im 0
4
3° Tr
im 0
4
4° Tr
im 0
4
1° Tr
im 0
5
2° Tr
im 0
5
3° Tr
im 0
5
4° Tr
im 0
5
1° Tr
im 0
6
2° Tr
im 0
6
3° Tr
im 0
6
4° Tr
im 0
6
1° tri
m 0
7
2° tri
m 0
7
3° tri
m 0
7
4° tri
m 0
7
1° tri
m 0
8
2° tri
m 0
8
3° tri
m 0
8
4° tri
m 0
8
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on data from EPH, INDEC,
II. COLLECTIVE BARGAININGWAGES AND DISTRIBUTION
2003–08
• STRENGTHENING THE LABOUR RELATIONS SYSTEM: INCREASE IN COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AND ITS COVERAGE
• IMPROVED WAGES, AND CONVERGENCE OF CONTRACTED WAGES WITH ACTUAL WAGES
• GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE PARTICIPATION OF WAGES IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Evolution of collective bargaining 1991–2007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Co
llec
tive
Co
ntr
acts
an
d A
gre
emen
ts
Company
Sector
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
Jan
02
Ma
r 0
2
Ma
y 0
2
Jul 0
2
Se
p 0
2
No
v 0
2
Jan
03
Ma
r 0
3
Ma
y 0
3
Jul 0
3
Se
p 0
3
No
v 0
3
Jan
04
Ma
r 0
4
Ma
y 0
4
Jul 0
4
Se
p 0
4
No
v 0
4
Jan
05
Ma
r 0
5
Ma
y 0
5
Jul 0
5
Se
p 0
5
No
v 0
5
Jan
06
Ma
r 0
6
Ma
y 0
6
Jul 0
6
Se
p 0
6
No
v 0
6
Jan
07
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
No
. o
f jo
bs
(000
s)
80%
81%
81%
82%
82%
83%
83%
84%
84%
85%
85%
86%
Co
vera
ge
of
coll
ecti
ve b
arg
ain
ing
(%
)
Registered employment:Total PrivateRegistered employment,:Under Collective Contract Registered employment,:Coverage (%)
Convergence between contracted wages and actual wages, 2001–07
$ 400
$ 600
$ 800
$ 1,000
$ 1,200
$ 1,400
$ 1,600
$ 1,800
$ 2,000
$ 2,200
Jan
01
Apr
01
Jul 0
1
Oct
01
Jan
02
Apr
02
Jul 0
2
Oct
02
Jan
03
Apr
03
Jul 0
3
Oct
03
Jan
04
Apr
04
Jul 0
4
Oct
04
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul 0
5
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul 0
6
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Wag
e ($
)
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rat
io o
f co
ntr
acte
d w
age
to a
ctu
al w
age
(%)
Contracted wage (22 CCT)
Actual wage
Ratio of contracted wage to actualwage (%)
PARTICIPATION OF WAGES IN INCOME, 1993–2008
44.7%
41.2%40.0%
37.5%37.1%
38.3%
40.7% 40.5%
42.1%
34.6%34.3%
36.1%
38.6%
41.3%
42.9%43.6%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Share of Payment for Salaried Work in Gross Added Value
III. CRISIS IMPACT: 4TH QUARTER 2008
• FALL IN REGISTERED EMPLOYMENT, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2003
• FALL IN WORKER HIRING• FALL IN NUMBER OF WORKERS DECIDING TO LEAVE THEIR JOBS
• SECTORAL IMPACT: FALL IN EMPLOYMENT IN ALL SECTORS EXCEPT SERVICES (+) AND TRANSPORTATION, STORAGE, AND COMMUNICATIONS (=)
• GREATEST NEGATIVE IMPACT ON LEAST QUALIFIED WORKERS • IMPACT ON ALL BRANCHES OF INDUSTRY, PARTICULARLY THE
AUTOMOBILE SECTOR • EXCEPT FOR BANKS AND HOTELS, GREATEST IMPACT ON DOMESTIC
COMPANIES
• IN THE SHORT TERM: SUBSTITUTION OF FORMAL EMPLOYMENT WITH INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT
Monthly change in registered Monthly change in registered employment, employment,
total companies surveyedtotal companies surveyed
-0,2%
-0,4%
-0,6%
-0,8%
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
Ene-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Abr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Ago-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dic-07
Ene-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Abr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Ago-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dic-08
Fuente: SSPTyEL – DGEyEL, en base a EIL (MTEySS).
Monthly change (%) in registered employment, country total.
0,0
-0,6
-1,3
-0,2
-1,1
-0,6
-1,5
-1,2
-0,9
-0,6
-0,3
0
0,3
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dic-08
Total w/ seasonal correction
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based Mi Simplificación program, provided by the Division of Labour Regulations
Evolution in registered employment Evolution in registered employment entry and exit rates entry and exit rates
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
I-07 II-07 III-07 IV-07 I-08 II-08 III-08 IV-08
Entry Rate Exit Rate
Source: SSPTyEL – DGEyEL, en base a EIL (MTEySS).
Change (%) in registered employment terminations
Reason for termination of employmentChangeQ4/08 /
Q4/07Changes in demand 113,5%Opening new product / business lines 3,4%Seasonal closures 322,9%New machinery -54,1%Reorganization of productive process 5,5%Organizational changes in company management 71,3%Subcontracting with another company -66,6%End of project or specific job 3,1%Disciplinary reasons 18,3%Suitable / Nonsuitable job skills -6,3%End of replacement -13,5%Move to another area 214,9%Worker’s decision -12,1%Other -59,9%Total -2,5%
Source: SSPTyEL - DGEyEL, based on EIL (MTEySS).
Total companies. Q4/2007 – Q4/2008
Evolution in private employment by activity sector
% change: Q3/2008 – Q4/2008
-0,4%
-0,3%
-4,9%
-1,3%
0,0%
-0,1%
0,6%
-6,0% -5,0% -4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0%
Manufacturing industry
Electricity, gas, water
Construction
Retail, restaurantshotels
Transport, storage, communications
Corporate & financial services
Community, social, personal services
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on EIL (MTEySS ).
Evolution in private employment by job qualification
% change: Q3/2008 – Q4/2008
-0,6%
0,1%
0,2%
-0,9%
-1,1%
-1,2% -1,0% -0,8% -0,6% -0,4% -0,2% 0,0% 0,2% 0,4%
Total
Professional
Technical
Operational Qualification
Unqualified
Source: SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on EIL (MTEySS ).
Evolution in private employment by company size
% change: Q3/2008 – Q4/2008
-0,6%
-0,6%
-0,9%
-0,2%
-1,0% -0,9% -0,8% -0,7% -0,6% -0,5% -0,4% -0,3% -0,2% -0,1% 0,0%
Total
10 to 49 employees
50 to 199 employees
200 employees and more
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on EIL (MTEySS ).
Monthly change (%) in industrial employment
Exporting and non-exporting companiesDecember 2008
1,0%
-0,8%
-1,1%
-0,6%
-1,0%
-1,0%
-2,5%
-0,6%
-0,6%
-1,5%
-1,5%
-0,9%
-2,3%
-1,9%
-1,5%
-1,3%
-3,0% -2,5% -2,0% -1,5% -1,0% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5%
Foodstuffs
Textiles, leather, footwear
Paper, wood, furniture
Petrochemicals
Non-metallic minerals
Metallurgy
Automobiles
All industry
non-exporting
exporting
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , Based on the Mi Simplificación program provided by the Labour Regulations Division
Monthly change (%) in industrial employment
7,0%
-4,2%
3,9%
-0,7%
0,1%
1,2%
-0,1%
1,6%
-0,9%
-3,6%
-1,3%
0,2%
-0,2%
-1,4%
-3,3%
-1,7%
-10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0%
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
FINANCIALINTERMEDIATION
TRANSPORT ANDCOMMUNICATIONS
HOTELS & RESTAURANTS
RETAIL
MANUFACTURINGINDUSTRY
MINES AND QUARRIES
TOTAL
National and multinational companies December 2008
National
Multinational
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on the Mi Simplificación program provided by the Labour Regulations Division
Change in the economically active population
Q3/2008 – Q4/2008
-4,9%
2,2%
0,6%
7,2%
-0,4%
-6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0%
Unemployed
Employed
Waged, registered
Waged, notregistered
Unwaged
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on data from EPH, INDEC, .
IV. (A) INTERVENTION BY THE STATE AND PRODUCTIVE AGENTS TO
ADDRESS THE CRISIS
DIRECT INTERVENTIONS BY THE MTESS:. CRISIS PREVENTIVE PROCEDURES (PPC) INTENDED TO PROTECT CONTRACTED
EMPLOYMENT (HALTS IN PRODUCTION, ADVANCES ON VACATIONS, REDUCED WORKING DAYS)
. ASSISTANCE FOR COMPANIES THROUGH PRODUCTIVE RECONVERSION PROGRAMS (% TOTAL WAGES)
PUBLIC WORKS PROGRAM TO GENERATE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT AND OFFSET REDUCED PRIVATE INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT LOANS AND TAX BREAKS FOR SMEs AND AFFECTED SECTORS (AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY) PROVIDED THEY MAINTAIN EMPLOYMENT LEVELS AND REGULARIZE THEIR WORKER CONTRACTS
LOW-INTEREST LOAN PROGRAMS TO SUPPORT APPLIANCE AND AUTOMOBILE PURCHASES
INCREASED SPENDING ON SUBSIDIES FOR LOW-INCOME WORKERS (FAMILIES PLAN, BREADWINNERS PLAN)
IV. (B) INTERVENTION BY THE STATE AND PRODUCTIVE AGENTS TO
ADDRESS THE CRISIS
CLAUSES INCORPORATED INTO COLLECTIVE CONTRACTS• Creation of joint committees to lessen impact on employment.• Information procedure for trade unions regarding adjustment
measures.• Introduction of hourly payment systems. • Leaves of absence with a maximum number of hours (or days)
per year.• Halts in production decided on by companies in agreement with
trade unions in light of economic conditions. CREATION OF AN EMPLOYMENT OBSERVATORY WITHIN THE
TRIPARTITE EMPLOYMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, AND MINIMUM-WAGE COUNCIL
EXAMPLE: JOINT COMMITTEE
• SMATA & Delphi Packard– Joint committee for consultation and prevention:– The Committee is the highest forum for dialogue
between the company and union and comprises: two company representatives, two union representatives.
– The Committee has the following oversight functions: employment levels; general economic factors that could affect employment levels; and evolution of labour relations.
CRISIS PREVENTIVE PROCEDURE
• Instrument created in 1991 by the Employment Law.• Prior to giving notice of dismissals, suspensions, and/or changes
in the working day, companies must provide a grounded justification for the procedure.
• Law No. 24,013, Art. 99: “In the presentation, the applicant shall duly ground his request, providing all the evidence he deems appropriate.”
• In addition, applicants shall present financial statements for the past three years, signed by a public accountant and certified by the Professional Council.
• Finally, companies with more than 500 workers must present their social balance sheets.
Example: Union information procedure
• SMATA & GENERAL MOTORS
– In the event of extraordinary event not caused by the employer that leads to a prolonged reduction or stoppage in work, GMA will not suspend or dismiss workers before exhausting the mechanisms provided for in Arts. 9 and 15 of the collective contract.
– Art. 15: An Evaluation and Follow-up Committee shall be established, comprising three representatives of each party. It shall: Evaluate channels for sharing information and mutual consultation; analyze situations that could affect employment levels; and study ways to mitigate their effects.
Example: Hourly pay system
• SMATA & GENERAL MOTORS – In order to protect employment at times of
economic fluctuations, the parties agree that the employer shall be obliged to guarantee payment of the monthly wage stipulated in Art. 40 and Annex A of the collective contract, and the employee shall be obliged to return the corresponding debited hours, in accordance with the established terms and conditions. In such situations, the Company may offset any reductions in hours paid by longer working days, using an hour credit and debit system, provided that the current provisions governing the length of the working day and rest periods are respected.
Example of production halts with union agreement
• SMATA & DaimlerChrysler– At times of crisis, the company may suspend
workers in accordance with production and organizational needs, by agreeing on with the trade union the economic conditions that are to be observed during the duration, pursuant to the terms of Article 223-bis of the Labour Contract Law.
Effectiveness of intervention: Workers affected by measures affecting
employment, by measure status
October 2008 / January 2009
12.681; 52%
11.529; 48%
Finalized Under negotiation
Source : SSPTyEL – DGEyEL , based on the National Federal Relations Division (Labour Secretariat)
Effectiveness of intervention: Workers affected by measures affecting
employment, by measure type
October 2008 / January 2009
30,3%
37,1%
0,5%
11,4%
20,3%0,4%
Dismissed Suspension Voluntarily retired Advance on vacation Reduced working day Other
Source: SSPTyEL – DGEyEL, based on the National Division of Federal Relations (Secretariat of Labour)(
V. 2009 Scenarios (a)
Annual 2008 Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Annual GDP growth 6,7% -1,0% 0,0% 1,5%Labour elasticity of product 0,2 0,5 - 0,47 Share of wages in product(Relative macroeconomic cost of labour)
43,6% 43,6% 43,6% 43,6%
Population 1%Activity rate (Q4/2008) 46%Employment rate (Q4/2008) 42,6% 42,0% 42,2% 42,5%Unemployment rate (Q4/2008) 7,3% 8,7% 8,2% 7,6%Change in unemployment rate 18,9% 12,6% 3,8%
Growth in employmentTotal employment 1,34% -0,5% 0% 0,70%
Wages
General wage level (1) 22,4% 11,5% 11,9% 12,5%
Prices
IPI (3) 19,8% 11,9% 11,9% 11,9%
Real wages (deflated by IPI)
Change in real wages (IPI) -0,27% 0,09% 0,65%
(1) INDEC earnings index(2) Wage index / IPI (REM projection)(3) REM of the BCRA
2009
Constant growth
Constant
V. 2009 SCENARIOS (b)
Sharp deceleration of economic growth Deceleration in job creation Political and social consequence: Increased budget
squabbles in a zero-sum game In the short term:
– formal jobs replacing informal jobs instead of unemployment (good jobs for bad jobs)
– public employment offsetting the drop in formal private employment
• In the medium term: test of the strength of the new employment regime
VI. CONCLUSIONS ARGENTINA APPEARS BETTER PREPARED TO TACKLE THE CURRENT
CRISIS THAN IT WAS IN 2001 PROMPT STATE INTERVENTION REDUCED DISMISSALS BY 50%,
PARTICULARLY IN LARGE COMPANIES: LEARNING EFFECT PLAYERS WILL TURN TO THE STATE IN SEARCH OF A “PROTECTIVE
UMBRELLA” TO WARD OFF THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTERNAL CRISIS DOMESTIC MARKET GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN EXCHANGE RATE, THUS PRESERVING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND THE CONTINUITY OF THE REINDUSTRIALIZATION PROCESS
REGIONAL PRODUCTIVE AGREEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENED, PARTICULARLY WITH BRAZIL AND MERCOSUR
THE CRISIS WILL ENCOURAGE EFFORTS TO IDENTIFY A NEW AGENDA FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
TO DATE THE CRISIS HAS ENCOURAGED THE CREATION OF NEW SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND THE INTEGRATION OF EXISTING SOURCES
Anti-crisis PoliciesPolíticas SectorialesApoyo créditos y financiamiento sectorial con-dicionado a la protección del empleo, entre otros:• Automotriz• Electrodomésticos• Maquinaria agrícola• Financiamiento PyMEs
Políticas directas del MTESS• Procedimiento Preventivo de
Crisis (PPC)• Subisidio directo condiciona-
do para pagar parte del salario a trabajadores en empresas afectadas
• Negociación directa
Políticas anticrisis“el empleo en el centro”
Políticas Sociales (indirecta) • Jubilados (monto fijo)• Planes Sociales: aumento
transferencia directa por hijo• Estimulo para creación de
nuevas cooperativas • Aumento de asignaciones
del Plan Alimentario Nacional
Política Macro• Fuerte estimulo a la Inversión pública en infraestructura/ viviendas/escuelas• Moratoria previsional condicio-nada a regularización y protección del empleo• Prefinanciación de exporta-ciones y capital de trabajo
Sectorial Policies
Credit support and sectorial financing conditioned to the protectection of the employment, among others:
•Domestic appliances
•Self propelling
•Agricultural machinery
•Financement of small and medium enterprises
Macro Policy
•Strong encouragement to public investment in houses, schools and infrastructure
•Provisory moratory conditioned to regularization and protection of employment
•Pre-financiation of exportations and labour capital.
Direct Policy of the Ministry
•Preventive procedure for crisis (PPC)
•Direct conditioned subsidy to pay a part of the salary of workers in affected enterprises
•Direct negociation
Social Policies (indirect)
•Jubilees (fixed amount)
•Social plans: increase of direct transfer for child
•Increase of assignations that correspond to the Alimentary National Plan (Plan Nacional Alimentario)
Anti-crisis Policies
“employment is the center”