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Hiran Region
Gu 2011
17th August 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
FSNAU Food security field analyst of Hiran was able to collect data directly from the field in Mataban areas.
The information from other areas that could not be accessed directly due to insecurity was collected through teleconferencing with enumerators, key informants/focus groups
Travelling through riverine & agro pastoral LZ livelihoods for direct observation followed by data collection through teleconferencing
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock &
livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire wood, building sticks, fodder); main sources of food: own production, purchase and food gifts
Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own production and purchases
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Iincome1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd)
Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
Primary sources of food of poor: own production, purchase and food gifts
Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goats
Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011)Overall statement: Normal rains were received in
Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) and parts of Hawd pastoral LZ while the rainfall performance was poor in agropastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd pastoral LZ
• Start of Season: started late 3rd dekad of April and ended 3rd dekad of May 2011
• Temporal and Spatial coverage: Average rains with good impact on livelihoods were received in SIP and parts of Hawd livelihood.
• Poor Rains: All of Hiran agropastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd livelihood zones (60 - 80 % of LTM)
• Hagaa Rain (June – July ): Light Hagaa rains have been received in the southern part of Jalalaqsi district
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)
ClimateGu 2011 Seasonal Performance
ClimateVegetation Conditions (NDVI)
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
• Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region further deteriorated security situation. Beletweyne and its surroundings are the epicentre of the current conflict.
• Regrouping and militia build-up in the region likely to cause another large confrontation
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
• Human death and injuries • Trade disruptions• Population displacement• Restricted humanitarian interventions• Outmigration of business and traders,
negatively impacting food availability and job opportunities of poor households
Regional Cereal Production by District
Agriculture
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealGu 2011 as % of
Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA
(1995-2010)
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average
(2006-2010)Maize Sorghum
Belet Weyne
125 150 275 122% 17% 43%
Bulo Burto
100 90 190 69% 18% 42%
Jalalaqsi
90 50 140 82% 19% 52%
Gu 2011 Total
315 290 605 90% 18% 45%
AgricultureTrends in Regional Cereal Production
Gu Cereal Production
Trends (1995 – 2011)
Annual Cereal Production
Trends (1995 – 2011)
AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos
1. Sorghum crop damaged by birds, Beletweyne 2. Poor maize crop, Jalalaqsi3. Sorghum failure in agro pastoral, Buloburte
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• Local cereal flow from normal sources – from Bay and the two Shabelle regions have already terminated due to poor crop production
• Current cereal inflow to the region is commercial food aid (Ethiopian side) through northern regions and direct cross border trade; the supply has reduced due to insecurity.
AgricultureRegional Cereal Flow
AgricultureRegional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily
Labour Wage Rates
Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Maize)
Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate (Beletweyn market)
Factors Influencing:
Sorghum prices:
•Poor local crop production•Cessation of cereal inflow from Bay and two Shabelle regions as a result of poor harvest failure. •Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow
Labour rates:• Increased job opportunities with cash crop production in the riverine areas; intensified activities in the wake of Ramadan
AgricultureRegional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between daily labour wage rate and white maize:
7kg/daily labour in Jul ‘11 vs 13kg in Jul ‘10.
AgricultureCash crop production
Cash crop production in riverine livelihood is widely practiced by better off farmers throughout the year.
The main crops include: onions, tomatoes, watermelon, peppers. These are supplied to both regional markets as well as northern regions (Puntland and Somaliland)
AgricultureCoping strategies
Coping strategies available for poor HHs in riverine and agro pastoral LZ include:
•Fodder sale•Labour activities & migration•Collection and sale of bush products•Kinship and social support•Limited loan
AgricultureGu 2011 Assessment Photos
1. Charcoal heading to market (Beletwein)2. Building sticks heading to market 3. Hired labour by better-off for maize threshing (Jalalaqsi)
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LivestockRangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration- Gu 2011
• Water availability is average in livelihood zones except parts of Hawd Pastoral, which is experiencing moderate water shortage due to poor rains
• Pasture condition is average in SIP and parts of Hawd livelihoods, and very poor in agro pastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd LZ due to poor rains
• Livestock body condition is near normal to normal in SIP and parts of Hawd LZ but very poor in agro pastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd LZ
• Normal migration to SIP and parts of Hawd areas sharing the limited resources, which had created early resource depletion
Livestock Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings
RegionConception (Gu ’11)
Calving/ kidding (Gu ’11)
Milk production (Gu ’11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (June 2011)
Livelihoods Livestock species
Hiran All Lzs:
Camel: Low to None
Cattle: Low to None
Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium
All Lzs:
Camel: Low to None Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: Low to None
All Lzs:
Very low for all species
All Lzs:
Camel: Low to None Cattle: Low to None Sheep and goat: Low to None
Pastoral- Hawd Camel: Decreasing trend (below baseline)Sheep/Goat: Decreasing trend (below baseline)
SIP and Agro-pastoral
Camel: Decreasing trend (below baseline) Cattle : Decreasing trend (below baseline)Sheep/Goat: decreasing trend (below baseline)
Livestock Pastoral Destitution
Livestock
Trends in local goat prices
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade
Factors Influencing:
L. Goat prices:
•Low demand • Civil insecurity
ToT goat to sorghum:
• High cereal prices•Decreased livestock prices
Regional Trends in ToT: local goat to cereal (red sorghum)
Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Normal livestock migration. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July ‘11Poor goat body conditions. Agropastoral, Buloburte,
Hiran, FSNAU, July ’11
Poor cattle body conditions in Agro pastoral. Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11
Empty water catchment. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Markets
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)
• Increased international prices
• Civil insecurity: high tension restricting trade movements
• Increased illegal taxes
• Increased reliance on imported cereals due to crop failure in southern regions
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region Nutrition Surveys (July 11)
Rapid MUAC Screening
(% <12.5cm, & % <11.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key
driving factors
Summary of analysis Gu,
2011
Hiran Hiran RiverineN= 570GAM – 20.7 (18.4-23.2) SAM - 9.1 (7.2-11.5)CMR - 1.37 (1.04-1.71)U5MR - 4.24 (2.95-5.31)
Hiran Agro-pastoral N=535GAM- 43.2 (37.7-48.9)SAM -16.3 (13.4-19.6)CMR- 1.53 (1.15-1.90)U5MR- 4.24 (2.83-5.65)
Hiran Pastoral N=444GAM - 27.3 (24.2-30.6)SAM- 12.8 (10.5-15.6)CMR 1.53 (1.07-1.98)U5MR 3.67 (2.38-4.97)
Hiran Riverine MUAC<12.5 cm21.00 (18.5-23.8)MUAC<11.5 cm8.60 (6.8-10.9)
Hiran Agro-pastoral MUAC<12.5 cm24.20 (20.0-29.0)MUAC<11.5 cm5.80 (3.7-9.0)
Hiran Pastoral <12.5GAM MUAC 22.80%(19.5-26.4)<11.5SAM MUAC 6.20%(4.7-8.1)
High (>20%) and increasing trends
High (>20%) and increasing trends
High (>20%) and increasing trends
Data from SCUk shows increasing trend of admissions
Overall Aggravating Factors:•Civil insecurity - limited humanitarian space; •Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, •Limited access to health centers
Overall Mitigating Factors:•Income from sale of fodder and some labor opportunities among the riverine
Hiran Riverine – In Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate
Hiran Agro-pastoral – In Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate
Hiran PastoralIn Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate
Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011
HIRANNutrition Situation Estimates
Aggravating factors: Civil Insecurity and associated disruption including increasing number of IDPs in the region Very limited humanitarian space Outbreaks of diarrhea and whooping cough reported in the region Limited access to health centers and medical supplies in the area Increasing food insecurity
Mitigating factor: Very limited access to SF programs Income from sale of fodder and some labour opportunities among the riverine Social support
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
HIRANSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)
Urban Population: 100%P in HE; 50%M in AFLC
Rural Population: Southern Inland Pastoral P: 100% P in HE; 50% M- AFLC; Hiran Riverine 100% P- HE; 75% M-HE; 25% M in AFLC; Hiran Agropastoral POOR: 100% in HE; 75% M- HE and 25% M- AFLC; Hawd 100%P AFLC
• Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate• Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet
2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping)
• Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)
• Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
• Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing
• Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)
MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2011
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
HIRANMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors: Very poor rainfall in terms of coverage and intensity in cropping areas and near average for pastoral
livelihoods except in pockets of Hawd livelihood Complete absence of cereal stocks due to 7-8 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to successive
seasons of cereal crop failure Very low Gu 2011 cereal production of 605MT (8% of PWA) Poor pasture conditions in agro-pastoral and riverine and high fodder prices Very poor livestock body condition (cattle and sheep) with high deaths in Deyr 2010 and Jilaal 2011 Decreasing trends in herd size of all species Significant increase in maize prices (85% from June 2010) and absent sorghum on the markets Lack of red sorghum in the main reference markets Weak purchasing power: ToT daily labour wage/ white maize (from 10kg in June ’10 to 6kg in June ’11)
and local goat/ white maize (from 84 kg in June ’10 to 39 kg in June ’11). Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region resulting in
displacements and trade disruptions Restricted humanitarian interventions
Mitigating Factors: Access to limited irrigated fodder sales and cash crops Availability of agricultural labour (cash crops by the better-off and upper middle) for the poor in riverine
areas Migration options to Somali region of Ethiopia to access better pasture, water and humanitarian
assistance. Social support, including remittance contribute rural/urban income
HIRANRural Population in Crisis by livelihoods
Hiraan Region and Affected Livelihood
Zone
Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE
Acute Food and Livelihood
Crisis(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HEFamine
Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 25,760 4,000 3,000 7,000 0 0
Hiran Agro-Past 136,727 38,000 85,000 20,000 104,000 0
Hiran riverine 32,633 4,000 25,000 4,000 25,000 0
Southern Inland Past 61,511 17,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 0
Destitute Pastoralists 4,067 0 4,000 0 4,000 0
SUB-TOTAL 260,698 63,000 129,000 45,000 148,000 0
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 192,000 193,000
HIRAN Rural Population in Crisis by District
Hiraan Region Affected District
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE
Acute Food and Livelihood
Crisis(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE
Famine
Belet Weyne/Matabaan 135,580 30,000 69,000 23,000 77,000 0
Bulo Burto/Maxaas 88,673 23,000 45,000 15,000 53,000 0
Jalalaqsi 36,445 10,000 15,000 7,000 18,000 0
SUB-TOTAL 260,698 63,000 129,000 45,000 148,000 0
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 192,000 193,000
HIRANUrban Population in Crisis
DistrictUNDP 2005 Total
Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or HE
as % of Urban
populationAcute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of
Urban population
Hiraan
Belet Weyne/Matabaan 172,049 36,469 5,000 15,000 55 9,000 15,000 66
Bulo Burto/Maxaas 111,038 22,365 0 9,000 40 0 9,000 40
Jalalaqsi 46,724 10,279 0 4,000 39 0 4,000 39
Sub-Total 329,811 69,113 5,000 28,000 48 9,000 28,000 54
The End