Post on 22-Dec-2015
transcript
Housing in Fingal A Market Perspective
Housing Supply Capacity Survey recently undertaken by Society of
Chartered Surveyors with FutureAnalytics
Identified 2,233 hectares of land zoned and potentially available for
residential development, 2.4% of the total land area in the Dublin Region
This zoned land can deliver approximately 102,500 additional
housing units under the minimum recommended density
This would potentially house 269,000 additional persons
There is a minimum requirement for 35,433 units between 2014 – 2018
Planning permission granted for 26,580 units
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Existing Fingal stock of 103,295 housing units – 20% of current total Dublin stock – and a population of 273,991 (Census 2011)
Almost 48% of total Dublin land area
Strong population growth of 13.8% 2006 – 2011 (Census 2011)
Average Household Size 2.67 persons (Census 2011)
1,065 hectares of zoned and potentially available land – almost 50% of all Dublin area zoned lands
Positive future development proposition
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Planning Permissions already granted
Land Area – 231 Hectares
No. of Units – 15,583 Units
Breakdown –
- 1,005 One Bed Units
- 6,502 Two Bed Units
- 4,765 Three Bed Units
- 2,365 Four Bed Units
- 684 Five Bed Units
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Quarterly House Completions in Fingal ( Source - Dept. of Environment, Community & Local Government)
Q3 2013 – Total 99 (private)
Q4 2013 – Total 130 (private)
Q1 2014 – Total 126 (private)
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Fingal Urban Settlements over 1,000 persons (CSO, 2011)
Balbriggan 19,960 persons;
Donabate 1,866 persons;
Kinsealy-Drinan 5,814 persons – also recorded highest density
Lusk 7,022 persons
Malahide 15,846 persons
Portmarnock 9,285 persons
Portrane 1,372 persons
Rush 9,321 persons
Skerries 9,671 persons
Swords 36,924
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
What attracts occupiers to Fingal – Fluirse Talaimh is Mara (Abundance of Land & Sea)
Infrastructure leads development
Dublin Airport, M1, M2, M3, M50, direct Link to Port Tunnel, Dart, mainline train links, QBCs
Metro North Project?
Broad spectrum of housing type from heavily populated areas to network of small villages to individual rural houses
Good local road network to support car-commuting population
Pressure on agricultural hinterland for development in future
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Supply of new housing is affected by the availability and cost of
Land
Credit (both Acquisition & Development Finance)
Skilled labour and cost of materials
Infrastructure provision
Planning Constraints and Building Regulations
Council’s ability to influence some of these factors in order to encourage efficient and timely delivery of new housing units
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
EXAMPLE
Build Cost for 3 Bed Semi-Detached House – €145,000 total
Local Authority Levies – c. €21,000* - 15% of build cost
Average Price - €189,000
Developer’s Profit @ 15% - €22,000
VAT @ 13.5% of sale price - €23,000
€43,000 / 23% of House Price in Tax/Levies
* Varies depending on Local Authority levy rates & Part V contribution
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
EXAMPLE
Apartment Development not viable based on current prices
NAMA’s Impact on Housing Costs – January 2014
Per Unit Development Cost
- €216,302 (Block of 30)
- €241,659 (Block of 90)
- Sales Prices in Dublin (MyHome.ie Q2 2014)
- 1 Bed Apartment - €139,000
- 2 Bed Apartment - €200,000
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Who will build the new housing stock?
Are there any roadblocks to development?
Influence of other stakeholders in the market – NAMA, non-NAMA Banks, Receivers
Vacant site levy to discourage land-banking/hoarding?
New approaches to ensure completion of schemes?
New Part V arrangements
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
New players in the markets – Property Funds and REITS
Medium to long term Build to Rent investment strategy with professional management
Different design requirements to standard apartment development
Dual orientation, size, central cores, utility and storage areas, retail use at ground floor level, parking – Build to Rent represents new unit type to market
Strong emphasis on finish for durability and quality offering to end user
Revised Tenure – Long Term Rental Agreements with focus on rights and responsibilities of both parties
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
Post Priory Hall – Buyers need confidence
in Regulatory system
Unfinished Estates/Pyrite/Flood Risk
Recent legislation (Multi-Unit Dwellings act) has provided more control to owners of the management of scheme
Work still needs to be done to convince people to live in high density schemes
Role for Local Authority in developing communities once construction completed?
Engage with industry for opinion and feedback?
Housing in FingalA Market Perspective
SUMMARY
Fingal has land available to sustain development for several years
Market needs quick supply to meet strong demand
Infrastructure in place to support development now
Financing challenges remain – new credit models and new players in market
New Build to Rent development type - great opportunity for sustainable high density
Car commuting is a major factor in Fingal – build the roads and they will come! Scheme designs need to accommodate this factor
Regulatory system needs to operate effectively to inspire trust in property owners and occupiers