Post on 12-Jul-2015
transcript
YesterdayYesterday
• Types of storiesTypes of stories
• Questions to askQuestions to ask
HomeworkHomeworkTampa Bay & Co.Tampa Bay & Co.
Hillsborough County Visitor reportHillsborough County Visitor report
TodayToday
• Concepts in economic impactConcepts in economic impact
• Common ratiosCommon ratios
• The multipliersThe multipliers
• The expertsThe experts
TruismsTruisms
• The easier it is to move, the less local factors can influence it.The easier it is to move, the less local factors can influence it.
• A dollar is only spent once, but what it’s spent on matters.A dollar is only spent once, but what it’s spent on matters.
• Whoever is paid to do an analysis will likely produce the Whoever is paid to do an analysis will likely produce the answer that’s desired.answer that’s desired.
• There is no right answer. No one really knows. There is no right answer. No one really knows.
Figure outFigure out
• Do the known numbers make sense? What change causes a big Do the known numbers make sense? What change causes a big effect?effect?
• Dollars per job: subsidy, spending or revenuesDollars per job: subsidy, spending or revenues
• Multipliers : Impact per dollar spent, jobs leveraged.Multipliers : Impact per dollar spent, jobs leveraged.
• A comparison: A comparison: • Local totals (percent of total local economy)Local totals (percent of total local economy)• National averages (dollars per job, multipliers)National averages (dollars per job, multipliers)• Growth rateGrowth rate
• Different units of measure: per dollar, per job, per mile built? Different units of measure: per dollar, per job, per mile built?
Industry $1,000 sales/employee
Characteristics
Manufacturing $397 High wages, high productivity
Construction $236 High wages, buy many materials locally
Wholesale trade $959 Pass-through costs high
Retail trade $253 Low wages, little bought locally
Information $314 High wages, little indirect
Input-output modelingInput-output modeling
• Basis of many economic impact statementsBasis of many economic impact statements
• Every business buys something and sells something – the Every business buys something and sells something – the difference is value added.difference is value added.
• Do they buy things made locally? Construction often yes, Do they buy things made locally? Construction often yes, retailing almost never.retailing almost never.
• If you know one piece of the puzzle, you can estimate the If you know one piece of the puzzle, you can estimate the rest, even if it’s not easy, based on rest, even if it’s not easy, based on the I-O tables of the National Accounts at the Bureau of the I-O tables of the National Accounts at the Bureau of Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis (the basis for calculating the GDP.) (the basis for calculating the GDP.)
Elements of economic impact Elements of economic impact projectionsprojections
• Actual spending (initial change)Actual spending (initial change)
• Direct effectsDirect effects
• Indirect effects (earnings multiplier)Indirect effects (earnings multiplier)
Type Amount
Sports facility operation (initial change)
$22.8 million / 250 jobs
Purchases by sports facility (direct effects)
$13 million / 175 jobs
Earnings effect (payroll being spent on other local goods and services)
$12 million / 190 jobs
Total $47.8 million / 615 jobs
Watch out for…Watch out for…
• Most statistics are only for private industry – revenue shifted Most statistics are only for private industry – revenue shifted from government appears new.from government appears new.
• The more local the analysis, the lower the effect. The more local the analysis, the lower the effect.
• Most initial estimates come from interested playersMost initial estimates come from interested players
ResourcesResources
• Bureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Economic Analysis• Local areas personal income and employmentLocal areas personal income and employment
• Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II)Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II)
• Value-added by industryValue-added by industry
• Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics• Quarterly Census of EmploymentQuarterly Census of Employment
• Census BureauCensus Bureau• County Business PatternsCounty Business Patterns
• Economic Census (5-year cycles)Economic Census (5-year cycles)
County business patterns
Economic censusEconomic census
Quarterly Quarterly EmpEmp & Wages & Wages
Questions?Questions?Sarah.cohen@duke.eduSarah.cohen@duke.edu / 919.613.7348 / 919.613.7348