“I regard the growth of cities as an evil thing...

Post on 06-Mar-2018

217 views 2 download

transcript

“I regard the growth of cities as an evil thing, unfortunate for mankind and the world. ”

0.2

.4.6

.81

Sh

are

Urb

aniz

ed

$0-1000 $1000-2000 $2000-3000 $3000-4000 $4000-5000

Source: World Bank

Share of Countries over 1/3 Urbanized, by GDP per Capita (2012 $)1960 and 2010

1960 2010

The Strength of Slums

67

89

10

11

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1% Urbanization, 2010

Log of P.C. GDP 2010 PPP Fitted values

Per Capita GDP Growth 1960-2010 (Poor Countries<$5000 PC GDP)

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Burundi

Liberia

Niger

Malawi

Sierra Leone

Central African Republic

AfghanistanUganda

Rwanda

Togo

Nepal

Zimbabwe

BangladeshBeninKenyaCambodia

Pakistan

Senegal

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Zambia

Ghana

Papua New Guinea

India

Nicaragua

Sudan

BoliviaHonduras

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Iraq

Egypt, Arab Rep.Morocco

Guatemala

Syrian Arab Republic

Congo, Rep.

El SalvadorEcuador

China

Algeria

Thailand

Jamaica

Dominican RepublicPeru

Colombia

South AfricaPanamaCosta Rica

Malaysia Mexico

Turkey

Brazil

UruguayChile

Korea, Rep.

PortugalGreece

Spain Hong Kong SAR, China

SingaporeJapan

-2-1

01

23

GD

P G

row

th 1

96

0-2

010

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Urbanization in 1960

02

46

8

Life

Sa

tisfa

ction

, 1-1

0

1 2 3 4 5

Life Satisfaction by Percent Urbanization(Quintiles)

Rwanda

MaliGhana

India

Moldova

Iraq

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Morocco

Guatemala

Indonesia

Ukraine

Thailand

Bulgaria

South Africa

RomaniaMalaysia

Argentina

Mexico

Russian FederationBrazil

Uruguay

Poland

Slovenia

CyprusSpain

New ZealandItaly

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Japan

Finland

CanadaUnited StatesNetherlands

Sweden

AustraliaNorway

-.1

0.1

.2

Urb

an

-Ru

ral H

ap

pin

ess

4 6 8 10 12Log of Per Capita GDP

The Urban Triad

The Physical City by rulto Government battling the Demons of Density

The Economic Magic of Human Interaction by חדוה שנדרוביץ

-.0

50

.05

.1.1

5

Avera

ge

Po

pu

lation

Ch

an

ge

, 20

00

-20

10

16

00

018

00

020

00

022

00

024

00

0

Avera

ge

Pe

r C

ap

ita Inco

me, 2

00

0

0 2 4 6 8 10Population Density

Per Capita Income, 2000

Population Change, 2000-2010

Source: U.S. Census

Detroit

Houston

Las Vegas

New York

Phoenix

DC

-1-.

75

-.5

-.2

5

0

.25

Ch

an

ge

in F

HF

A P

rice, 2

00

6-2

01

1

0 .2 .4 .6 .8Change in FHFA Price, 2001-2006

Change in Housing Prices, 2001-2006 vs. 2006-2011

0

.05

.1.1

5.2

Avera

ge

Cha

ng

e in

FH

FA

, 1

99

6-2

01

2

1 2 3 4 5Note: For MSAs with populations greater than 250,000 in 2010.

Change in FHFA, 1996-2012by Quintile of Population Density, 2010

Photo by Postdil Alfred Peet

Ford’s Big Idea (River Rouge)

The Decline of the Costs of Moving Goods

Dol

lars

per

Ton

Mile

(R

eal)

Railroad Revenue per Ton Mileyear

1890 2000

.02323

.185063

0

.02

.04

.06

.08

.1

Avera

ge

Po

pu

lation

Gro

wth

by C

oun

ty, 2

000

-20

10

1 2 3 4 5

Average Population Growth by Average January Temperature(Quintiles)

City 1950 Pop. 2010 Pop. Change

New York 7,891,957 8,175,133 +4 %

Chicago 3,620,962 2,695,598 -26%

Philadelphia 2,071,605 1,526,006 -26%

Los Angeles 1,970,358 3,792,621 +92%

Detroit 1,849,568 713,777 -61%

Baltimore 949,708 620,961 -34%

Cleveland 914,808 396,815 -56%

St. Louis 856,796 319,294 -63%

Washington 802,178 601,723 -25%

Boston 801,444 617,594 -23%

Will the last person to leave Seattle please turn out the lights?

Photo by Postdil Alfred Peet

0

.05

.1.1

5

Avera

ge

Po

pu

lation

Gro

wth

by C

oun

ty, 2

000

-20

10

1 2 3 4 5

Average Population Growth by Share with BA in 2000(Quintiles)

Share of Adults with B.A.s 2000

Per Capita GDP 2010 .

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

o

Bakersfi

oo

o

Las Vega

oo

o

o

oo

o

ooo

o

o

o

o

o

oDetroit

oo

o

o

o

o

oo

ooo

oo

o

o

o

oo

o

o

ooo

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

New York

o

oo

o

o

o

o

Atlanta

o

Boston

o

o

o

ooo

San Jose

oSan Fran

PISA MATH SCORE

Log Per Capita GDP .

300 400 500 600

6

8

10

12

Kyrgyzst

o

o

o

o

o

o

Brazil

o

o

o

o

o

o

Thailan

o

o

o

oo o

o

Israel

o

o

o o o

oo

oU.S.A.

Portugal

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

Norway

o

o

o

o

ooooo

o

o

o

o

Singapor

Chinitz: Contrasts in Agglomeration: New York and Pittsburgh

0.5

11.5

2

Avera

ge

Pe

rcen

t G

row

th in E

mplo

ym

ent, 1

97

7-2

01

0

1 2 3 4 5Smallest firms are in Quintile 1

MSA Employment Growth (1977-2010)by Average Firm Size (1977) Quintiles

Economic Growth and Firm Size

Engineering vs. Economics

The Curitiba Innovation

Picture by Mariordo

The Ongoing Health Challenge

Picture by Peter

Picture by Jorge Lascar

The Rise of the Consumer City

The Physical City: NIMBYism vs. Monumentalism

Astana by ChelseaFunNumberOne -

Monumentalism in Asia