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BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
28 October 2013
Contact: Caroline Florence
Q4 2013 ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business
Confidence Monitor results
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved.
Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2011 Business Confidence Monitor
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 3
Business confidence continues to climb ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business Confidence Index
21.9
8.1 9.4 6.4
1.4 -1.3
-5.4
5 5.5 8.8
6.4
2.1
11.5
4.8
-3.9 -7.2
-19.7
-25.7
-36.3
-45.3
-28.2
4.8
24.6 25.8 25.5 21.5
11.9 9.6
13.7
8.1
-9.7 -9.3
12
1.1 4.2
12.8 16.7
24
31.7
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q2 2
00
4
Q4 2
00
4
Q2 2
00
5
Q4 2
00
5
Q2 2
00
6
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
UK Average
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 4
Confidence has now been rising for five consecutive
quarters
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q4 2
00
4
Q2 2
00
5
Q4 2
00
5
Q2 2
00
6
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Quarterly change to Confidence Index
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 5
Confidence has been increasing since August
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
THREE WEEKS BEGINNING ……..
UK BCM CI TREND - 3 WEEK ROLLED (Each point based on c.230)
Where the line passes thru 4 vertical grid boxes the change is significant.
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 6
Economic growth expected to accelerate again in Q4 2013 –
expanding by 1.3% Quarter on quarter real GDP growth, per cent
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q4 2
00
6
Q1 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
7
Q3 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
QQ growth actual
QQ growth estimate
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved.
Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
Source: ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2011 Business Confidence Monitor
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 8
Reported turnover growth and expectations pick up Turnover, annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 9
Reported profit growth has also increased this quarter Gross profits, annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 10
Expected domestic sales growth has increased for five
consecutive quarters Domestic sales, annual percentage change
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 11
Next year should see a relatively favourable environment
for UK exporters Annual real GDP growth. Cebr forecasts for 2013 and 2014
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3f
201
4f
US Eurozone China
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 12
Reported export growth has increased for two consecutive
quarters
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
Exports, annual percentage change
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 13
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
Signs starting to emerge that businesses are becoming
more willing to invest Capital investment, annual percentage change
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 14
Sharp fall in the share of businesses reporting customer
demand to be a greater challenge Share of businesses reporting customer demand as greater challenge
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 15
Decline in net share of businesses with stocks above
normal levels Net share* of businesses** with stock levels above normal
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Raw materials Finished goods *Share of businesses with stock levels above normal minus
share of businesses with stock levels below normal ** Manufacturing, Construction,
Transport & Storage
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 16
Still signs of spare capacity in the economy Share of businesses operating at and below capacity
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Below capacity At capacity
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 17
Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 18
Uptick in selling price increases but growth remains below
pre-crisis norms
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
Selling prices, annual % change
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 19
Input price inflation continues to hold steady
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
Input prices, annual % change
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 20
Employment growth rising and expected to pick up further Employment, annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 21
FTSE 350 companies expected to stop shedding jobs Employment, annual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Exp
ec
ted
12 m
on
ths
fro
m Q
4 2
01
3
FTSE 350 Listed Large Private Companies SME Private Companies
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 22
Staff turnover and skill availability becoming more of an
issue as the economy recovers Net percentage balance of firms reporting factors to be a greater challenge to
business performance
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q4 2
00
7
Q1 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
8
Q3 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q1 2
00
9
Q2 2
00
9
Q3 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q1 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
0
Q3 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q1 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
1
Q3 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q1 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
2
Q3 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q1 2
01
3
Q2 2
01
3
Q3 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Availability of management skills Availability of non-management skills Staff turnover
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 23
Salary growth remains weak and below consumer price
inflation Average total salary, annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
… over last 12 months … expected next 12 months Consumer price index (CPI) inflation
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 24
Outline
• Confidence index top lines
• Financial performance indicators
– Growth indicators
– Inflation & labour market indicators
• Regional & sector stories
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 25
Trend of Business Confidence by Region
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45UK AVERAGE London
South East (exclLondon) South West East of England East Midlands West Midlands
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45UK AVERAGE North West
NorthernEngland Yorks & Humber England Scotland Wales
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 26
Trend of Business Confidence by Sector
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 27
A broad-based recovery ICAEW / Grant Thornton Business Confidence Index – construction sector
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q4 2
00
6
Q2 2
00
7
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
All Production industries Construction All Service industries
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 28
Confidence of retail & wholesale firms now
keeping pace with business services
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q4 2
00
7
Q2 2
00
8
Q4 2
00
8
Q2 2
00
9
Q4 2
00
9
Q2 2
01
0
Q4 2
01
0
Q2 2
01
1
Q4 2
01
1
Q2 2
01
2
Q4 2
01
2
Q2 2
01
3
Q4 2
01
3
Retail & Wholesale Business services
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 29
Services sector output is now past its pre-crisis
peak ONS index of economic output, by sector, 2007 = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
200
6 Q
3
200
7 Q
1
200
7 Q
3
200
8 Q
1
200
8 Q
3
200
9 Q
1
200
9 Q
3
201
0 Q
1
201
0 Q
3
201
1 Q
1
201
1 Q
3
201
2 Q
1
201
2 Q
3
201
3 Q
1
201
3 Q
3
Production industries Construction Services
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 30
Profit growth – last 12 months
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 31
Profit growth – next 12 months
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 32
Capital investment growth – last 12 months
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 33
Capital investment growth – next 12 months
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 34
Export growth – last 12 months
-2-10123456789
UKALL
PRODUCTIONEnergy, Water &
MiningManufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2-10123456789
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 35
Export growth – next 12 months
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7UK
ALLPRODUCTION
Energy, Water &Mining
Manufacturing& Engineering CONSTRUCTION
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ALLSERVICES
Retail& Wholesale
Transport& Storage
Banking,Finance
& Insurance PropertyBusinessServices
IT &Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 36
Employee growth – last 12 months
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Banking, Finance & Insurance
IT & Communications
All Service Industries
Manufacturing & Engineering
UK National Average
Retail & Wholesale
All Production Industries
Property
Construction
Transport & Storage
Business Services
Energy, Water & Mining
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 37
Employee growth – next 12 months
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Banking, Finance & Insurance
Transport & Storage
Energy, Water & Mining
All Production Industries
Manufacturing & Engineering
All Service Industries
UK National Average
Construction
Retail & Wholesale
Property
Business Services
IT & Communications
BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com
Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved. ICAEW / Grant Thornton Q4 2013 Business Confidence Monitor Slide number 38
Trend of Business Confidence by Company
Type
-10
0
10
20
30
40
UK ConfidenceIndex ALL UK LISTED FTSE 350
ALL PRIVATECOMPANIES
Private CompaniesLarge (250+ staff)
Private CompaniesSME (<250 staff)
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
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Copyright © ICAEW 2013. All rights reserved.
Conclusions • Business confidence continued to rise in Q4 2013, suggesting that the
economic recovery is gaining further momentum.
• Confidence has now increased for five consecutive quarters.
• Financial performance indicators such as reported turnover and profit
growth have picked up and are expected to grow faster over the next
12 months.
• Tentative signs are emerging that businesses are becoming more
inclined to invest.
• Pay restraint remains the order of the day, with expected growth in
employee earnings standing below current rates of consumer price
inflation.
• Confidence has increased across all three main broad industry
sectors – Construction, Production Industries and Services.
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