Post on 17-Dec-2015
transcript
Ichimoku Swing Trading
Robert C. Joiner
L. A. Conference2012
Eastern Indicators:
• Ichimoku
• Heiken-Ashi
• Renko
The Present:
Tenkan-Sen = 9 moving average
Kijun-Sen = 26 moving average
Key points on Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen:
• Both lines act as Support & Resistance
• Price crossing the Tenkan-Sen is the first sign of possible reversal
• Tenkan-Sen crossing up and through Kijun-Sen is more Bullish above the Kumo
• Tenkan-Sen crossing down and through Kijun-Sen is more Bearish below the Kumo
The Future:
Kumo
Senkou Span A = (9 + 26 moving averages)/2
Senkou Span B = (hi & lows P52)/2
…then drop those answers 26 periods into the future.
Key Points on Kumo:
• Kumo acts as both Support and Resistance
• Thick Kumo is stronger than thin Kumo
• Price above Kumo is Bullish
• Price below Kumo is Bearish
• Rising far right edge of Kumo is Bullish
• Falling far right edge of Kumo is Bearish
The Past:
Chiku = Closing price of current candle
…and drop that 26 periods into the past.
Key Points on Chiku:
• Chiku above the historical price curve is Bullish
• Chiku below the historical price curve is Bearish
• Chiku crossing the historical price curve is predictive of a new trend, but should not be anticipated
S&P-500 August 2011
Between9-19-11 and 10-10-11
I posted 16 trades…..
All shorts.
S&P-500 February 2012
Between12-29-11 and 2-24-12
I posted 39 trades…..
38 longs. 1 short.
Western Indicators:
• Parabolic SAR
• Money Stream
• TSV
• ADX w/DI+ and DI-
Parabolic SAR
Money Stream
TSV – Time Segmented Volume
ADX w/DI+ DI-
Key Points onWestern Indicators:
• Create intentional chaos. Use different indicators that measure different variables on different moving averages.
• Parabolic SAR is the weakest indicator, but it makes me think twice about entries and exits.
• Money Stream + TSV = “Money Indicators”…I want them to be in harmony relative to their moving averages.
Western Indicators, cont.
• ADX supports the current dominant trend, DI+ or DI-.
• I like to see ADX rising from below 10 and moving above 20+.
• The further ADX climbs above 40, the higher the probability of profit taking by investors.
• I prefer steady upper movement of the dominant DI, creating divergence with the weaker DI, rather than quick spikes.
PXP – long on 2-7 @ 40.92
RVBD – 2-7-12…did not trade
Entries & Exits:
• Ideally, you enter a long trade at a moment of weakness within the context of strength.
• We set 3% and 6% Targets, liquidating 40% of shares on each Target.
• We move our stop to break-even on the remaining shares after the first target is hit, and use a moveable stop on the remaining shares.
Bought long on 1-6-12 @ $9.78…hit 3% on 1-9-12…hit 6% on 1-10-12…moved stop 8 times…hit stop of $12.53 on 2-7-12…total profit on 20% position was 28% ROI.
How do you find stocks?
• Scans create candidates; they do not create trades.
• Scan for Eastern crossovers: Tenkan-Sen crossing Kijun-Sen, Chiku crossing the historical price curve, price moving above Kumo, etc.
• Scan for Western crossovers: DI+ crossing DI-, rising ADX values, Money indicators crossing their moving
averages, etc.
PVT scan from 2-25-12
“Is this a High Probability trade?”
What would you doon the following
stocks?
Let’s see how you did.
Questions&
Answers