Post on 29-Dec-2019
transcript
COMPANY UPDATEAPRIL 2018
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FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
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This presentation contains forward-looking information about the Company’s business outlook, objectives, plans, strategic priorities and other information that is not historical fact. A statement contains forward-looking information when the Company uses what it knows and expects today, to make a statement about the future. Statements containing forward-looking information may include words such as: will, could, should, believe, expect, anticipate, intend, forecast, annualized, projection, target, outlook, opportunity, risk or strategy. Readers are cautioned that actual results may vary from the forward-looking information in this presentation, and undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking information. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information in this presentation, are described in Interfor’s annual Management’s Discussion & Analysis under the heading “Risks and Uncertainties”, which is available on www.interfor.com and under Interfor’s profile on www.sedar.com. Material factors and assumptions used to develop the forward-looking information in this presentation, include volatility in the selling prices for lumber, logs and wood chips; the Company’s ability to compete on a global basis; the availability and cost of log supply; natural or man-made disasters; currency exchange rates; changes in government regulations; the availability of the Company’s allowable annual cut (“AAC”); claims by and treaty settlements with Indigenous peoples; the Company’s ability to export its products; the softwood lumber dispute between Canada and the U.S.; stumpage fees payable to the Province of British Columbia (“B.C.”); environmental impacts of the Company’s operations; labour disruptions; and cyber-security measures. Unless otherwise indicated, the forward-looking information in this presentation is based on the Company’s expectations at the date of this presentation. Interfor undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking information, except as required by law.
INTERFOR’S FOUR REGIONS
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4
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1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
4th LARGEST LUMBER PRODUCERNorth American Lumber Production by Company – 2017Bbf
- Capacity
Source: Wood Markets Monthly March 2018
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Building ValueGrowth by Acquisition
Operational Excellence
INTERFOR STRATEGIC PLAN
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SUMMARY• Record 2017 results:
• Production of 2.6 billion board feet • Sales of $2.0 billion• EBITDA of $288 million• Strong free cash flow• Leverage reduced to 12% ND/IC
• Multi-year strategic capital plan underway:• +/- $150 mm/year capex
• Near term: Two US South projects totaling US$65 million• Increase production by 150 million board feet per year• Completion in Q1-2019
• Medium-term: Advancing other large scale capital projects• Greenfield sawmill in the US South
• Decision in mid-2018
LUMBER MARKETS
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Doug Fir/Larch
29%
Hem-Fir10% Spruce-Pine-Fir
9%
Southern Yellow Pine
35%
Cedar13%
Lodge Pole/ Ponderosa Pine
4%
INTERFOR’S DIVERSE LUMBER MIX
(1) By value for FY2017
Lumber Sales By Species 1Cedar
Southern Yellow Pine
Western Dimension
Lodge Pole Pine
9
Canada8%
China/Tw/HK5%
Other5%
Japan 9%
USA73%
NORTH AMERICAN DRIVEN BUSINESS
(1) By value for FY2017
Lumber Sales By Market 1
10
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
$350
$375
$400
$425
$450
$475
$500
$525
CAD/USD FX Rate (Right Axis)
SYP Composite Price (Left Axis)
WSPF Composite Price (Left Axis)
BENCHMARK LUMBER PRICE & FX TRENDS
2014 2015 2016
US$/Mbf $C/US$
Source: Random Lengths & Bank of Canada(1) Prices and FX up to March 23, 2018
$400$3500.91
$357$2790.78
$409$3900.77
$382$2940.76
2017
$453$4730.79
2018 (1)
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KEY MARKET DRIVERS
(1) Source: Forest Economic Advisors (FEA) forecast published March 25, 2018.
2016 (1) 2017 (1) 2018E (1) 2019E (1)
US Housing Starts - Total (mm) 1.18 1.21 1.31 1.39 Change +3% +9% +6%
US Housing Starts - Single Family (mm) 0.78 0.85 0.93 1.01 Change +9% +9% +9%
NA Lumber Consumption (Bft) 54.8 58.3 60.8 63.6 Change +6% +4% +4%
NA Offshore Exports (Bft) 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 Change -1% +2% +2%
NA Offshore Imports (Bft) 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 Change +44% +2% +12%
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Company CV AD Total
West Fraser 17.99% 5.57% 23.56%
Canfor 13.24% 7.28% 20.52%
Tolko 14.85% 7.22% 22.07%
Resolute 14.70% 3.20% 17.90%
JD Irving 3.34% 6.04% 9.38%
All Others(Applicable to Interfor)
14.19% 6.04% 20.23%
US/CANADA SOFTWOOD LUMBER DISPUTE• Interfor’s Canadian operations’ shipments to the U.S. represented
16% of company-wide lumber shipments in 2017.• 66% of Interfor’s 2017 lumber production was US-based.• Significant differences in accounting treatment for duties between
publicly traded companies – limits EBITDA comparability.
U.S. Countervailing (CV) & Anti-Dumping (AD) Softwood Lumber Duties (1)
$9
$14
$17 $18
$23
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2017 Total Duties PAID per Shipment(C$/mbf) (2)
(1) Reflects final duty rates announced by the US Department of Commerce on December 28, 2017.
(2) Reflects total cash deposits paid per shipment. Competitors include publicly traded western Canadian lumber companies.
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OPERATIONS OVERVIEW
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BUSINESS COMPARISONS
US SouthDimension Mills
BC InteriorDimension Mills
Specialty Mills
US NW Stud Mills
• 9 dimension mills in Georgia, S. Carolina and Arkansas• Low cost wood baskets• Strong geographic fit/significant operational upside
• 3 dimension mills in BC southern interior• Modern/low cost operations• Good fiber supply/limited exposure to pine beetle
• 3 stud mills in Washington State and Oregon• Efficient/modern operations
• 3 specialty mills in BC Coast and Oregon• High value products (eg. cedar, Japanese squares and pine boards)
BC INTERIOR DIMENSION MILLS
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BC INTERIOR: OVERVIEW
Mountain Pine BeetleCumulative Percentage of Merchantable Forest Volume Killed Since 1999
Very High (>45%)
High (31-45%)
Moderate (16-30%)
Low (<16%)
None (0%)
Adams Lake
Castlegar
Grand Forks
Source: BC Ministry of Forests
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BC INTERIOR: CASE STUDY
2008‐09 2012 2015
Grand Forks, BC
• 3 MILLS IN GOOD FIBER BASKETS• SIGNIFICANTLY REPOSITIONED THE ASSETS
• RE‐INVESTMENTS ARE COMPLETE• STRONG CASH FLOW AND ROI
• TOP DECILE/QUARTILE EBITDA MARGINS FOR THE BC INTERIOR
Castlegar, BCAdams Lake, BC
US SOUTH DIMENSION MILLS
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• 1.4 Billion feet of lumber capacity across 3 States• Largest lumber producer in Georgia• 45% of Interfor’s capacity is in the South
US SOUTH: OVERVIEW
US SOUTH: MULTIPLE PHASES
2013-2015 2016-2017
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 45 Acquisitions Build Team/
InfrastructureMill Improvements/
Optimization
No/Low Capex Initiatives; >$35 MM
Annual EBITDA Impact
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Investment Program
2018-2022
Discretionary Internal Capex
Investment+
Greenfieldsand/or
Acquisitions
US SOUTH: INVESTMENT PROGRAM
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Canter LineAutograder
Continuous Kilns
• ~$500 MM discretionary capex investment program over 5 years:• Machine center upgrades, debottlenecking and optimization
projects for existing assets• Two initial projects formally announced for 2018/19 totaling
US$65 MM (Meldrim, GA and Monticello, AR); completion in Q1-2019
• Additional investment opportunities in greenfields and/or acquisitions
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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$9
$39
$15
$34
$16
$42
$69
$35
$(1)
$20
$36
$46
$20
$63 $68
$49
$5
$106
$61
$87
-$10
$10
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$37 $36
$25
$36 $39 $47 $45
$37 $32
$13 $12
$36 $33
$57 $58 $51
$60
$77
$61
$90
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
390 418 447 470 495
582 567 578 639
672 618
568 618 637 628 607
640 655 645 655
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$250$275$300$325$350$375$400$425$450$475$500$525$550$575
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WSPF Composite (US$/Mbf)
WSPF Composite (C$/Mbf)
SYP Composite (US$/Mbf)
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL RESULTS
Adjusted EBITDA (C$mm)
Benchmark Lumber Prices ($/Mbf) Production Volumes (Mmbf)
Cash From Operations After W/C Changes (C$mm)
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160 Capital Expenditures - Discretionary
Capital Expenditures - Maintenance
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization
CAPITAL SPENDING PROFILE
$mm
Adams Lake, BCMill Rebuild
Castlegar, BCMill Rebuild
Round 1 US South Investment Program
Machine center upgrades, debottlenecking and optimization projects
Grand Forks, BCMill Rebuild
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FREE CASH FLOW CONSIDERATIONS
C$mm
LTM Adjusted EBITDA (as of 12/31/17) $288 • Significant additional margin uplift opportunities in the US South.
Less:
Annualized Cash Interest Expense $(12) • Average interest rate ~ 4%.
2018E Maintenance Capex(Maint. $70m; Disc. $80 mm)
$(70) • 2018E total capex outlook of C$150mm; maintenance capex includes logging roads.
Cash Taxes $(3) • Substantial tax loss carry-forwards. $66 mm in Canada and US$132 mm in the US.
Other $TBD • No significant employee future benefit obligations.
• Incentive payouts dependent on stock price.
Free Cash Flow $203
Free Cash Flow/Share $2.90
34% 33%
23% 22%
31%28%
24% 24%
34%38% 39% 38% 38%
35%32%
27% 28%
21%18%
12%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
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Prudential Notes (4.17%)
Cash (C$mm) $(132)
Debt (C$mm) $251
Net Debt (C$mm) $119
Book Equity (C$mm) $854
Invested Capital (C$mm) $973
Net Debt / Invested Capital 12%
Net Debt/LTM EBITDA 0.4x
EBITDA/Interest Expense (LTM) 20.6x
Capital StructureAs of December 31, 2017
Debt Maturity Schedule (C$mm)As of December 31, 2017
Net Debt/Invested Capital