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IMBER within IGBP II
P. MonfrayPrepared for IGST,
14-16 November 2005, Exeter
OCEAN IGBP II
Goal
“to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global change, on time scales ranging from years to decades”
Theme 1. Interactions between biogeochemical cycles and
marine food webs.What are the key marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem
processes, and their interactions, that will be impacted by global Change?
• Transformation of organic matter in marine food webs • Transfers of matter across ocean interfaces• End-to-end food webs and material flows
Theme 2. Sensitivity to Global Change
What are the responses of key marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems and their interactions with global change?
• Impacts of climate-induced changes through physical forcing and variability.
• Effects of increasing anthropogenic CO2 and changing pH on marine biogeochemical cycles and their interactions.
• Effects of changing supplies of macro- and micronutrients• Impacts of harvesting on end-to-end food webs and
biogeochemical cycles.
Theme 3. Feedbacks to the Earth System
What is the role of ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems in regulating climate?
• Oceanic storage of anthropogenic CO2
• Ecosystem feedback on ocean physics and climate
Theme 4: Responses of Society
• What are the relationships between marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems, and the human system?
IMBER National Activities
• Canada, Chile, Germany, France, India, Japan, New Zealand, Netherlands, South Africa, UK, USA, Finland
• China has newly funded five year programme
• Euro Oceans, CarbOcean
• Regional Activities– ICCED, Southern Ocean– OECOS, SubArctic Pacific
Planned Activities• 2005
– Carbon Working Group Meeting, joint IMBER/SOLAS – End to end food webs Working Group Meeting, joint
IMBER/GLOBEC – Executive meeting jointly with GLOBEC Executive Committee
• 2006 – Human Dimensions Working Group Meeting– Continental Margins OSC
• 2007– Theme 2 Issue 2 (Nutrients) OSC– Theme 2 Issue 1 (Physical drivers) OSC– ICCED OSC
• 2008– IMBER Open Science Conference
GODAE-interest/need for IMBER• Ocean state:
– Reanalysis starting from availability altimetry data (1992) for climate studies– Nowcast and forecast analysis for campaign optimization
• Region of interest:– Basin scale at high resolution both for vertical and horizontal– Towards coastal areas for cross slope exchanges
• Assimilation issues:– methods that limit spurious diapycnal fluxes below the mixed layer by advanced assimilation
schemes of physical observations– integrate gradually biogeochemical observations to constrain jointly physics and biogeochemistry
• Observations issues:– Include biogeochemical sensors (O2, pCO2, nutrients, optics, ...) within ARGO and GLIDER.
• Include biogeochemical modules within GODAE system– Realtime or forecast of biogeochemical state for evaluation and campaign optimization– Online coupling for bio-feedbacks on physics
Towards real-time integration of marine biology in operational oceanography
Some issues rise by the MERCATOR/BIONUTS group
P. Gaspar, J. Stum (CLS, Toulouse)E. Greiner, L.Nouel, E. Dombrowsky (MERCATOR OCEAN, Toulouse)A. El Moussaoui, P. Monfray (LEGOS, Toulouse)
O. Aumont, M. Lévy, A.S. Kremeur (LOCEAN, Brest & Paris)S. Alvain , L.Bopp, C. Moulin, J. Orr (LSCE, Gif)L. Berline, J.M. Brankart, P. Brasseur, Y. Ourmières, J.Verron (LEGI,
Grenoble)
July 1998Chlorophyllusing MERCATOR
SeaWIFS
LOBSTER
PISCES
P3ZD
2° to 1/3°resolution
Add SSH assimilation
Add N regeneration
Add Fe from margins
SeaWIFS 98-02
SeaWiFS
with SLA and SST ass. + IAU
July 1998P3ZD/NATL3
SEEK assimilation with IAU(Incremental Analysis Update)
w/o assimilation
Berline et al., 2004
1992 1993
1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001
Preliminary results using MERCATOR re-analysis (MERA-11)
in 2006: realtime demo prototype with evaluation by ocean color
beyond: global 1/4°, atl 1/15°
Biogeochemistry:3 challenges for GODAE
• 1- Do assimilation schemes of physical variables respect constrains for marine biology ? - Actually NO
• 2- Do marine biogeochemical first guesses are enough robust ? - NO but quality increased
• 3- How assimilate information from sea color to jointly improve physics and biology ? - Require to solve first 1 & 2
Physical (Re)Analysis
OfflineBiogeochemistry
Biogeochemical Observations
Diagnostics
BiogeochemicalCodes
AssimilationSchemes
Towards a “virtuous loop” ?
Products: PP, fCO2, O2, turbidity …
Users: Research,Carbon/Kyoto, Marine Resources
Towards nowcast & hindcat
2nd Int'l GODAE Symposium, November 1st-3rd, 2004, St. Petersburg, FL Report to IMBER-SSC of Breakout Session3 on
“Marine Ecosystems Management: Fisheries and Biogeochemistry"
Context • GODAE should move actively towards ecosystem modeling and include this goal within its mandate. GODAE should develop models with living marine resources (thus providing products for users) and form partnerships with others (e.g. IMBER, LOICZ, GLOBEC, GEOHAB) to develop and apply assimilation techniques for ecosystem models. Product Lines relevant for IMBER • Real-time in situ data and remote sensed data to provide warning on extreme conditions for operational use; • Real–time model forecast to optimize field campaign with predictions of extreme temperature events or eddies/fronts within 1 or 2 weeks; • Reanalysis products for retrospective analysis of carbon cycle or ecosystems dynamics. Product Types relevant for IMBER • Data types – Circulation fields, T, S, turbulence, light levels, mixed-layer depth ; • Global or basin scale, however downscale to the inner shelf coastal applications is crucial but tricky (CODAE system required); • Retrospective reanalysis of data and hindcasting could goes back to 1950, but much better since 1992 by using satellite altimetry, then 2003 with the new ARGO float system.
…/…
Challenge for IMBER • Development of ecosystem models that used GODAE products:
- offline mode for hindcast over years to decades, - realtime nesting within GODAE system for nowcast and/or forecast, - online mode for feedback loop from plankton dynamics to physics via regulation of
solar heat penetration; • Development of real-time in-situ observing system, as geochemical or biological sensors on ARGO float or ship of opportunity; • Development of advanced assimilation schemes to constrain in a coherent manner both dynamics of physics, biogeochemistry and biology. • Partnerships with GODAE must be proactively encouraged by IMBER-SSC on such issues. Message to GODAE to serve and interact with the IMBER user community • Assimilation matching - Need to ensure that the data collected and specifi c assimilation schemes represent the right aspects of ecosystem dynamics to make the model most useful for the users (special attention needed for vertical transport and turbulence). • Specific verification - Each ‘product’ must be tested (locally ) against the requirement of its defined user need. It is not simply possible to test the ‘generic’ model but is necessary to know what ‘ type’ of output is required by the user and in what form. Benchmarks and verifi cation are important to ensure data quali ty and gain trust of users. • Translation – GODAE should help to make the products understandable to the users, making vast amounts of information useful and more easily understandable. Ease of access is also important. Communications with new users may be diffi cult. • Dialogue - Some simple results of data already in use would require relatively li ttle discussion for development but in general development of useful products will require many local and regional bi-lateral and multi-lateral discussions between developers and users. General strategic support could probably be provided by GODAE but perhaps only at strategic level. • Partnerships with IMBER must be proactively encouraged by GODAE-SSC on such issues.
A joint workshop on “Biogeochemistry issues within operational oceanography” ?
• Gain benefit on existing experiences made by teams associated with GODAE systems*
• Define a joint Vision for future activities
• Schedule in 2006/07 ?– Joint with IMBER OSC on physical drivers ? – Next GODAE Symposium ?
* MERCATOR/BIONUTS, NCOF/HADOCC-ERSEM, BLUElink, ECCO, HYCOM, …
IMBER IPO
• Brest, France• Funded three years by CNRS, IRD,
University of Brittany, Region of Brittany• Official opening October 25th, 2005• Executive Officer is Sylvie Roy• Deputy Executive Officer Sophie
Beauvais• Administrative Assistant is Elena Fily
IMBER Science Plan
Vision
“to provide a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society”
Cross-slope exchange issue