transcript
- Slide 1
- Industrial Transformation, Urbanization and Sustainability in
China Jiahua Pan Research Centre for Sustainable Development The
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences CASS-Nottingham Workshop on
Environmental Management 22-24 June, 2005 Nottingham
University
- Slide 2
- 1.1 developmental challenges Industrialization as a measure of
development Industrialization process urbanization infrastructure
physical infrastructure and institutional infrastructure Industrial
process labor intensive (energy intensity low)== capital intensive
(energy intensity high) == knowledge intensive (energy intensity
low) Industrial stages De-industrializing countries (decoupling
energy) Industrialized ( stable and high level of energy
consumption ) newly industrialized (slow growth of energy
consumption) rapidly industrializing ( rapidly increasing
consumption of energy ) Early industrializing ( moderate increase
of energy consumption) Pre-industrial economies
- Slide 3
- stages of development - developing countries: De-
industrializing, industrialized, newly industrialized,
industrializing Urbanization: shift from rural urban 82.1% in 1978
down to 69% in 2002, to 50% in 2020; Absolute numbers: 790.1m in
1978 to 890m in 2002 to 750m in 2020 Rural labor force: 400
million; 100 million rural laborers in urban sector; 150 million
redundant rural laborers Construction of physical and institutional
infrastructure Transition of the economy from labour to capital to
knowledge intensive industrial structure 1.2 developmental
challenges Industrialization: a process with different energy and
emissions implications the case in China
- Slide 4
- 1.3 Developmental challenges: stage of Chinas
industrialization? Going heavier? Latest trend in the past few
years Energy demand elasticity: in the industrialised world,
elasticity for energy demand is around 1, in China before 2000, the
figure is between 0.4-0.7. And the projected number between 2000
and 2020 is 0.39. The actual number between 2001 and 2004 is
between 1.2-1.6 For 2004 in China, total electricity production
amounted 2,120 billion kWh: industrial sectors 75.3%, service
sector 11.1%, residential sector 10.8% and agriculture 2.8%.
Debate: development vs conservation The trend: energy >12%
increase; GDP > 8%; investment: iron & steel 173%
development: urbanization, employment, income generation
conservation: energy, land, water, pollution Government decision:
7% GDP for 2004; actual 9.5%; (14% added up from provincial
numbers); restriction in iron & steel, aluminum, cement
- Slide 5
- 1.4 developmental challenges Carbon Stocks vs carbon flows
Stocks: all the build-up infrastructure, buildings and durables
stock carbons physical infrastructure buildings durable consumption
goods (cars, fridge) Flows: daily/regular need for carbon
depreciation maintenance household/service
- Slide 6
- Construction of physical and institutional infrastructure 1.5
developmental challenges: stocks vs flows
- Slide 7
- 1.7 energy demand: primary energy projection made in 2003 and
reality in 2004 Scenario a: with limited intervention Scenario b:
policy intervention for efficiency Scenario c: policy intervention
for renewable energy Actual 2003 2004
- Slide 8
- 200020102020 SOx27.1940.7257.38 NOx19.8834.1749.82
CO22996.84989.06966.4 Emissions of major pollutants (million tons)
in China, 2010 and 2020 Source: SO2 and Nox, Chen (2003); table 4;
CO2: Zhou (2003), p. 143; CO2 for 2000: IEA, 2003 2.1
environmental, ecological and resource challenges
- Slide 9
- 2.3 resource endowments Dirty coal dominated energy structure
Increase in electricity consumption: over 15% annually. The first
half of 2004 generated 1001.72 billion kWh in China. 83.2% is from
coal and 2.1% from nuclear energy, with 14.7% from hydropower.
- Slide 10
- 2.4 resource endowments: land Two thirds of land area are Gobi
dessert, arid, and high altitude mountain ranges Urban expansion
Infrastructure: road, airports Arable land: 7% of the world
average, 0.1ha/c Deforestation Biodiversity: losses
- Slide 11
- 2.5 natural disasters Extreme climatic events: drought,
flooding, heat waves Land slides Earthquakes Mine explosion
- Slide 12
- 3.2 social & economic challenges Population: Large
population base, still increasing: 1.3 billion, 0.75% Aging: over
60 year old: 10%
- Slide 13
- 3.3 social & economic challenges Income distribution
Urban-rural: urban/rural income ratio: from 2.5 in 1980 to 3.5 in
2004 East-west divide: drivers of the Chinese economy: Zhujiang
Delta, Yangtze Delta, Bohai Region Rich-poor: Gini coefficient:
0.46 governance Tendency to be wasteful and luxurious: waste of
limited resources: large cars, large houses Social inefficiency:
corruption, policy failures
- Slide 14
- 3.4 Technological: theoretical vs realistic Source:
Nakicenovics et al, IPCC,2000 2100 Total Energy Demand for SRES
scenario range: 515-2737 EJ/yr Nuclear total:7700- 462000 EJ
>> average 77-4620 EJ/yr over next 100 years
- Slide 15
- 4.1 Way out? Development of non-conventional fossil fuel energy
Commercially viable large hydro nuclear power New and renewable
energy: solar, wind, and bio-energy commercially yet to be
competitive Clean coal? Technological leap forward Energy
efficiency: 20% more energy intensive than OECD Energy intensive
industries: moving out of China? To developed nations? They are
De-industrialising To other developing countries? Not feasible (1)
political and economic risk (institutional uncertainties); (2) they
themselves need energy intensive products for physical
infrastructure China needs them: industrialization, urbanization.
The practice in industrialization in OECD countries proves a stage
that cannot jump over.
- Slide 16
- Legally binding regulations, planning and standards Buildings
in China: life time too short, waste of energy for bricks, steel,
cement, chemicals. In OECD countries, over 100 years
Infrastructure: lack of planning, poor quality Political
intervention in planning: should be avoided Energy saving: waste /
luxurious consumption mass transport instead of private cars
Smaller cars /houses 4.2 Way out?