transcript
- 1.
- 2.
- Context and Study Objectives
- Exploring Agritrade-Rural Livelihoods-Food Security
Linkages
- How Regional and International Agritrade Impact Rural
Livelihoods and Food Security
- Policy, Institutional Frameworks and Interplay of
Stakeholders
- Conclusions and Recommendations
- 3.
- Worlds malnourished increased from over 800 million in 2008 to
923 million in 2009 (FAO, 2009)
- Kenya ranks 29 among the countries with worlds poorest food
security
- Effects partly due to recent droughts and rising food prices as
well as rising poverty
- Rising food poverty: expenditure is about 60 percent of poor
households incomes
- 70 percent of the Kenyan population are market-dependent and
net buyers of food
- 4.
- dependence on rain fed agriculture has seen output from maize
fall from a surplus of 9 million bags in 2006 to a deficit of 35
million bags at present.
- Kenya thus relies on imports and Trade is important for
stabilizing the national food supplies and food prices.
- However trade is affected by tariffs, NTBs and subsidies.
- 5.
- After Government Withdrew agricultural support measures
following liberalization:
-
- food security started worsening by early 90s
-
- By 2003, the country relied more on imports to fill food
deficits;
-
- About 25% of value of agric exports and 14% of the total
exports were now being diverted to import food .
-
- Food imports have not necessarily helped the poor since at
household level (mainly in the rural and among the poor in towns
and urban centers) food insecurity has increased;
-
- incomes of the poor have plummeted, and they cant sufficiently
buy the imported food from the market
- 6. Some Stylized Facts about Kenya Agritrade, Poverty and Food
Security
- Trade deficit has been widening
- Value of exports increased by 14% in last 2yrs but that of
imports grew faster and at a higher rate (16%)
- Poverty still remains high and overlaps largely with rural
areas
- Where 67% of pop lives, affecting largely small-scale
farmers
Variable 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 Economic growth 5.8 1.3
Agric as % of GDP 24 Exports value (mn) 69,285 244.5bn 412.4bn
Imports Value 314.9bn 605.1bn Export as % of GDP 23.6 27.4 25.1
Import as % of GDP 30.4 29.8 37.5
- 7. Poverty Rates Selected Years (1992-2007)
- With such statistics in poverty, there is also a markedly
increase in food insecurity in the past few years
- Food Security definitions
-
- secure access by all people at all times to enough food for a
healthy, active life World Bank (1996). This implies
-
-
- Availability of enough food for an active healthy life;
-
-
- the guarantee of access to it at any time [Christiaensen
1995]
-
- Availability is thro local food prod or imports ; access is
thro ability to purchase enough quantity of quality food ( income
and food price ) and this to be so on a sustainable basis
Region 1992 1994 1997 2000 2007 Rural 42.o 46.8 52.9 59.6 49.1
Urban 29.3 28.9 49.3 51.5 33.7 National 46.3 46.8 52.3 56.8 46
Source: Kenya Economic Surveys (Various Issues), KNBS 2007
- 8.
- Identify linkages between trade, rural livelihoods and food
security more specifically within the Kenyan context.
- Determine magnitude and composition of regional trade in
Agriculture (both formal and informal) and inherent effects on
rural livelihoods and food security.
- Carry out a review of national policies related to agriculture
food security, trade, and regional integration
- 9.
- Literature review to establish the Linkages between Trade,
Livelihoods and food security.
- Secondary data used for trend analysis
- Primary data FGDs with farmer organizations.
- Review of Policies, Legal and Regulatory Frameworks
- 10.
- Dependence on Agriculture for Livelihoods
- In the rural the poor are linked to agriculture as
-
-
- farmers, laborers, transporters, marketers and processors of
produce and as suppliers of non-agricultural services to households
whose income is principally agriculture-derived
-
-
- food purchase is their main consumption expenditure
- In the rural towns and large cities
-
-
- They engage in the processing and distribution of agricultural
products from the hinterland.
-
-
- They buy most of their food needs in addition to supplies from
rural relatives, and
- So to the extent that trade affects agriculture then it affects
rural livelihood as well
- 11.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (II)
- Thus if incomes from agric trade are rewarding then we
expect:
-
- Rural households incomes to increase hence increased demand for
food and other consumer goods,
-
- creation of non-farm jobs and employment diversification,
especially in small towns close to agricultural production
areas
-
- surplus rural labor is absorbed, raises demand for agricultural
produce and again boosts agricultural productivity and rural
incomes
- Thus, impact on rural livelihood comes through
-
- falling real food prices,
-
- rising incomes fro small farm households
- 12.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (III)
- Trade affects rural livelihoods through importation and
exportation and policies thereof
-
- Production, with main determinant being price farmers receive
and boost government revenue which can also be ploughed back
through support
-
- Policies (like subsidies) that dampen world prices create
uncompetitiveness of products produced by countries who cannot
afford subsidies
-
- Reduce incentive to invest in agricultural infrastructure,
agricultural research and development,
- 13.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (III)
-
- Countries can produce and export based on their factor
endowments
-
- Use income from exports to import national food
requirements
-
- Ability to import food depend on incomes generated from imports
and world price of food
-
- Thus Export competitiveness and price matter
- 14.
- Linkages between agricultural trade and rural livelihoods
therefore occur in three phases according to Evans 1990:
- 1. rural households earn higher incomes from production of
agricultural goods for non-local markets, and increase their demand
for consumer goods
- 2. this leads to the creation of non-farm jobs and employment
diversification, especially in small towns close to agricultural
production areas
- 3. which in turn absorbs surplus rural labor, raises demand for
agricultural produce and again boosts agricultural productivity and
rural incomes (Evans, 1990).
- 15.
- Trade Liberalization such as SAPs many sectors became
uncompetitive.
- International trade policies such as
- Subsidies -dampened world prices, leading to collapse of many
agricultural sectors in developing countries
- NTBs such as standards have also acted as barriers for
developing country exporters.
- Consequently, production declined and this led to a drop in
employment for farmers and dependency on imported food leading to
major changes in food prices and worsening the food security and
livelihoods situation.
- 16.
- Poverty rates in Kenya are 46.1 percent. Rural poverty is
higher than the national average and stands at 49.1%.
- Rural poverty mostly associated with agriculture and land
-
- Highest in ASALs in Eastern and North-eastern due to poor
climatic conditions
-
- High potential areas e.g Central are over exploited due to
population pressure
- Poverty is highly correlated with food security i.e high
poverty areas are the most food insecure Asals and Coast
- Food security worsened since 1990s and by 2003 imports were 14
percent of total value of imports and 25 percent of agricultural
imports.
- 17.
- Statistics show that only 47 percent of the entire Kenyan
population is food secure.
- Hence Kenyas dependency on food Aid has continued to rise over
the years and is observed to have high peaks in 1993, 2001 and in
2007
- Currently WFP is feeding a total of 3.6 million people in 25
districts and 535,000 children are given school meals through the
school feeding program
- Food imports especially cereals have also increased deficits
last year was 95,000MT met through imports
- Most imports come from the region Uganda and Tanzania 108,155
MT and 56,900 respectively
- 18.
- More than 70 percent of Kenyas Population live in rural
areas
- Agriculture and pastoralism the mainstay of the Kenyan Rural
economy
- An average of 68% rural household income is derived from
off-farm incomes, and around 32% comes from own production (crops
and livestock products), with maize and wheat being the leading
sources of crop income.
- Incomes from Agriculture alone are not sufficient to meet food
needs especially in ASALs hence purchase of food is very
common.
- 19.
-
- dominated by the agricultural sector- horticulture 22%; tea
17.9%, others eg petroleum and manufactured exports about 45
percent of exports.
-
- Main destinations EU 22 %; and Africa 60 Percent
-
- Exports to the COMESA and EAC region consist of manufactured
products such as Fermented tea (35%), Cement (4.5%), Cigarettes
(4.2%) amongst others
-
- Exports to Africa increased 26% in the past 10 years
-
- Exports to Africa facilitated by EAC and COMESA customs
union
-
- - Main barriers to Exports include NTBs, poor infrastructure
and delays at various border points
- 20.
-
- Kenyas imports mainly consist of petroleum products (14 percent
of total imports); crude petroleum (9 percent); industrial
machinery (11 percent); and motor vehicles (6.4 percent).
-
- Main source of Kenyas imports include Middle and Far East, UAE
and EU countries including South Africa.
-
- Kenya also imports food specifically maize from EAC and COMESA
countries to meet shortages
- 21.
- an important aspect of cross-border trade among small traders
along Kenya Uganda and Kenya-Tanzania borders
- Provides a source of income for traders and also provides food
improved access to food.
- Occurs due to restrictive policies and NTBs Magnitude is hard
to measure
- Involves small but significant amounts of food products moved
over short distances using as bicycles, and boats
- Goods entering Kenya included, maize, beans, bananas, fresh
fruits and vegetables-tomatoes, onions avocados, pineapples and
Textiles
- Goods leaving Kenya included counterfeit batteries, cigarettes,
detergents, beverages, sugar, mattresses and other household
goods
- 22.
- Reasons for illicit trade:
-
- delays at the border which in some cases along Busia-Malaba
border was up to 7 hours
-
- High Administrative costs -numerous requirements such as trade
licenses business and road license, phyto-sanitary
certificates
-
- Corruption and bribery at police checkpoints
- Magnitude is hard to measure
-
- drives down prices of goods# - a plus for consumers but not
producers
-
- Provides incomes and improves livelihoods for traders#
- 23.
- Continued high prices of food due to:
-
- a) sustained high level of effective demand in the country,
especially in main urban centers,
-
- b) accelerated appreciation of the Kenyan currency in recent
years
-
- c) the impacts of increased internal production costs, given
the general cost of inputs and other production outlays, and
-
- d) the overall rise in inflation, - rising to 31.5 percent in
May and 29.4 percent in June 2008,
-
- e) Overwhelming dependence on maize as the key staple for the
majority of the population.
-
- f) drought and poor weather conditions;
-
- g) rising food prices which is a global phenomenon as well
as
-
- h) The post-election violence which occurred in 2008
January
- 24.
- Increased imports cheap food imports acting as a dis-incentive
for producers although this has improved access to food
- On one hand loss of incomes for producers and labourers but on
the other hand creation of employment and incomes for traders
- Dependency on food aid has also acted as a dis-incentive for
production although it has provided much needed food for millions
of people in extreme food insecurity
- 25.
- Trade liberalization under SAPs and various trade agreements
such as EAC and COMESA have led to openness and reduction of
tariffs
- Even after the trade regime was liberalized cheap food imports
have suppressed domestic food prices and therefore food
production
- Food security policy has laid much emphasis on Maize sector
ignoring other sectors which could raise incomes of rural
folk#
- Food Security policy not coherent with trade policy
- 26.
-
- Kenya Food Security Meeting & - Advisory role
-
- Kenya Food Steering Group Policy and administrative
-
- NCPB strategic grain reserve
-
- Ministries and Government departments MoT, MOA
- Institutions for food security not coherent with those of
Trade
- Stakeholders: Farmers and Small scale traders; Millers and
Transporters; ODAs and NGOs;
- 27.
- Need for an equitable global environment for trade; removal of
subsidies.
- Taking care of regional NTBs to enhance regional trade
- Most of what needs to be done is mainly at National level
-
- Need for a clear and comprehensive trade policy that takes into
account food security issues
-
- Addressing infrastructural bottlenecks and redistributive
mechanisms from surplus to deficit areas.
-
- Need for a comprehensive institutional framework to enable
private sector participation in the process as well as
consolidation of information for future referencing.