Inovo futuring overview

transcript

FuturingUnderstanding the Futures that are Critical to your Growth

The Issue

• Current corporate strategy processes

focus on the near term

• Most companies lack either the interest

or ability to perceive the world as it could

exist 10 to 15 years from now

• People cognitively have a difficult time with

futures that are further than 2 to 3 years out

• A linear projection of current trends is like

“… trying to drive down a country road at

night with no lights while looking out the

back window. - Peter Drucker

• There will be non-linearities; people don’t do

well with these

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” – Bill Gates

Principles and Foundation of Futuring

• Principles

– Iterate and diverge-converge

– Use multiple lenses for viewing the future

– Develop ‘guiderails’ and ‘compasses’

– Incorporate dynamic systems thinking

• Inovo’s methodology is built on a proven

foundation:

– Foresight methods – Andy Hines

– Scenario planning – Peter Schwartz

– Participatory Futures – Tim Lynam

• Cautionary notes

– This is hard, thinking work

– 80/20 rule – 80% of what’s important is in

20% of what is created

– A potential future may seem crazy – but

there’s always some insight to be had

For an overview of futuring techniques see:

Bishop, P., Hines, A., Collins, T.; The Current

State of Scenario Development: An Overview

of Techniques; Foresight; Vol. 9 No. 1 2007

Recent Inovo Futuring Experience

• Automotive – Saint Gobain Performance Materials

• Automotive – Dow Chemical (Kokam electric vehicle JV)

• Commercial Transportation – ExxonMobil Research & Eng’g

• Industrial Systems – Parker Hannifin

• Aerospace – Saint Gobain Performance Materials

• Retail – ExxonMobil Fuels & Lubes Marketing

• Health Care – UnitedHealth Group

• Food – Bettcher Industries

These experiences will be used to provide

illustrative examples in the slides to follow

Futuring Process – 4 Stages

Gathering & Learning

Scenario Building

Story Telling

Activation

Causes & Effects

FutureNarratives

Forces & Trends

Current Actions

Gathering &

Learning

What others think and say about the

future, focusing on consensus trends

and weak signals

1. Subject matter expert interviews

2. Insight curation

3. Future trend statements

Gathering & Learning

Forces & Trends

1. Subject Matter Expert Interviews

Internal and External

• Gain the perspective of internal

and external experts and

stakeholders

• Tap into a diverse population of

future thinkers

• A structured dialog about the

future

2. Insight Curation

• Web based “Team Reading and

Sharing” with annotation for fast

“content absorption”

─ Collaborative collection of relevant

content by all team members

─ Sharing of information, insights

and evidence

• Extraction and gathering of key

information, insights and evidence

• Raw material for creative process

to build futures

• Library for future reference

Diigo Bookmarking ToolMindmaps capture relevant snippets of articles and interviews

3. Future Trend Statements

• Insights from interviews and

research are rolled-up in a set of

future trend statements

• Consensus Trends

– What everyone seems to be talking

– Important but don’t convey any

proprietary knowledge or insight

• Weak Signal Trends

– Just starting to have an effect

– Hard to distinguish from the ‘noise’

– When recognized, give you unique

knowledge and insight on how the

future could unfold

Scenario

Building

Transforming future trends into an

interconnected system of cause and

effect involving people, technologies,

organizations, economies and societies

1. Implications

2. Scenario lenses

3. Scenario building

Scenario Building

Causes & Effects

1. Implications

• Create first, second (and third)

order implications of the trends

• Which are the most important

implications?

• Implications & trends are the

building blocks of scenarios

2. Scenario Lenses – Design, Demand and System

Design Lens Demand Lens System Lens

Using these lenses, we create multiple scenarios

based on the established trends and implications

3. Scenario Building

Scenarios Defined by System Influence Diagrams

Storytelling

Creating stories about the future

that illuminate key insights about

how people and organizations

could behave

1. Story placemats

2. Story components

3. Stories

Telling

FutureNarratives

1. Story Placemats

• Tell a story of the future that

comes from a future scenario

• Make the future understandable

and accessible

• Illuminate those aspects of the

future that are most important

2. Story Components

• Infrastructure reimagined

– Airports and cities create integrated systems. Airports are centers for both aircraft and traveler big-data

– Airports improve travel efficiencies through intelligent software and hardware (robotics)

• Rise of the drone economy

– Economics of commercial drone use drive industry wide changes.

• Aircraft are smart and connected

– Constant communication and tracking in an integrated airspace for commercial and private aircraft of all sizes and shapes

3. Stories – Written and Visual

Activation

Identify key sources and signals

that tell you how the future is

unfolding and what to pay

attention to

1. Backcasting

2. Activation Points

Activation

Current Plans

1. Backcasting

• Stepping back from the described future

and identifying conditions that would need

to be in place to make the future a reality:

– 10-15 years

– 6-9 years

– 3-5 years

• Three dimensions of change

– Design dimension (technology)

– Demand dimension (markets)

– System dimension (PESTEL: Political,

Economic, Social, Environmental, Legal)

2A. Activation Points

• An important milestone on the way to

the future– A synthesis of one or more backcast

stepping stones

– Impact on the company if it occurred

– Can be ‘seen’ coming if the proper

signals are monitored

• Used to make the future actionable– Source of debate and creative insights

– Not a prediction; may be contentious

– Multiple activation points create a basis

for addressing future uncertainty

2B. Activation Points Event

• Pro-Con Debate

– What are the driving forces that have caused this

activation point to happen? Proximate & ultimate causes.

– What barriers or constraints that could prevent or inhibit

the activation point from happening. What would be an

alternate future?

• Insight, Sense, Action Ideate

– What specific events or developments that would signal

that this activation point was going to happen or not happen

– What types of technologies, customers and business

models will be important?

– Describe what our company would need to do differently if

this activation point happened.

– What new businesses should our company get into? What

existing businesses should our company get out of?

2C. Activation Point Survey

• Wisdom-of-crowds to calibrate the

activation points

– Helps identify which futures are the most

critical to pay attention to

• Impact – Likelihood

– How likely is this to occur?

– What would be the impact on your

company if it did occur?

• Agreement – Certainty

– How certain are you of your assessment

about the likelihood and impact

– How much agreement is there within the

group (calculated).

Deliverables

Four Key Deliverables

Item Use

Themes - DomainsSynthesis of the future scenarios that focus where the

company should pay attention

Super-forecastsForecasts of specific outcomes provides a basis for

discussion and metrics for monitoring what is happening

Sensing-Action Monitor (optional)A system for on-going, constantly updated tracking of

the items listed in the action plans

Action PlansWhat to look for, where to look, who to engage with and

what projects to initiate as the future unfolds

Future of Automotive

Autonomous Driving

Life without a

Interior Experience

Drones for Delivery

Integrated Ecosystems

Explosion of

Segments

Deliverable: Themes – Domains

A theme organizes the insights that

emerge from the team’s futures

• Four scenarios examined and common elements are extracted and grouped.

• Groups are arranged and combined toreveal themes

• Set of 5-8 high-level themes is synthesized as the basis for action plans

Deliverable: Super-forecasts

• Methodology adapted from Tetlock

& Gardner’s Super forecasting

– Subjective assessments based on facts

– There are ‘super forecasting’ experts

• Principles

– Be specific: e.g., use 75% rather than

‘very likely’

– Be specific in time: indicate by when

– Use default %: evidence adjusts + and –

– Continually adjust based on new

evidence

• Remember that 75% positive means

there is still a 25% negative chance

Deliverable: Sensing-Action Monitor

Quarterly report monitoring the sensing-

action plans

Online curated content sharing and tracking of

signals, triggers and actions

Collaborative, ongoing sensing-action system

tracks plans and continually updates

Deliverable: Action Plans

• What are the impacts and

reasons for those impacts

• What to look for and where

to look (continuous)

• Who to engage with and

how to engage

Closing

Futuring Initiative – Adaptable to Your Situation and Budget

Duration: 1-6 months

Key Events: 1-4 group sessions

Team Size: 2-8 core team members

Choice of Future

Extent of outreach

Complexity of scenarios

Team size & involvement

Action implementation

Specific General

Basic Extensive

Narratives Models

Small Large

Report System

No one can predict the future, but you can think about it systematically

1. Escape from immediate, pressing business to think about what the world will

be like in 10 to 15 years

2. Challenge your current assumptions and perspective and imagine plausible

futures in different ways

3. Discuss and debate ‘future knowledge’ you hold in your heads and that other

people are discussing

4. Develop new insights that lead directly to strategy, opportunities and actions

5. Create a plan to see how your futures are unfolding and what actions to take

“Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

Larry SchmittManaging Partner and Co-founder

213 South Ashley St., Suite 300Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA

P: +1 (734) 604-3887E: lschmitt@theinovogroup.com

The Inovo Group

Contact…

www.theinovogroup.com

Inovo futuring overview

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