Post on 12-Apr-2017
transcript
INSIGHT IRAN
2016
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Table of Contents
Strategic Position ................................................................................................................................. 2
Status in MENA .................................................................................................................................... 2
Why invest in Iran ................................................................................................................................. 2
Human Capital ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Economic Advantages ......................................................................................................................... 3
Iran Ranking ........................................................................................................................................ 4
Iran - Export and Import ...................................................................................................................... 5
Economy of Iran ................................................................................................................................... 6
Oil and Gas ....................................................................................................................................... 6
Mining ................................................................................................................................................. 7
Petrochemicals ................................................................................................................................. 8
Iran Macro Overview 2014 .................................................................................................................. 9
How can we help? .............................................................................................................................. 10
Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 11
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Strategic Position
Islamic Republic of Iran with an area of 1،648،196 sq.km has been located in South- West Asia. The
country neighbours with Turkey and Iraq in west, Afghanistan and Pakistan in East, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in North and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain,
United Arab Emirates and Oman in South through Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. The country is regarded
as one of the richest countries in hydrocarbon reserves, so that it ranks the second for gas reserve and
its export as well as the second for exporting crude oil in the world.
Status in MENA
Why invest in Iran
Iran is a new export market in the content of its foreign investment promotion program following lifting
of sanction in 2016.
After a 9 percent contraction over the previous two years, interim sanctions relief and prudent policies
eased constraints on trade and financial transactions, improved economic activity, and lowered inflation
in 2014/15.
Although the decline in oil prices has negatively affected economic activity in 2015/16, the
comprehensive agreement between Iran and the P5+1, if implemented successfully, should improve
Iran’s external environment and economic performance substantially going forward. i
2nd largest economy in the MENA after Saudi Arabia
2nd largest population in the region after Egypt with an estimate 78.14 million individuals in 2014
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Human Capital The number of students has increased from 170,000 students in 1979 to 4,350,000 million in 2014.
About 700,000 students graduate from universities annually. Total of Iranian students in universities are
4,400,000 that 1,920,000 of them are women.
With the presence of 40 industrial sectors in its stock exchange, Iran has one of the most diversified
industries in the Middle East and North Africa. High diversity in mining and hydrocarbon reserves, large
oil and gas reserves and capacity to exploit wind and solar power, have given Iran a unique position.
According to the 2015 World Bank statistics, the GDP of Iran will increase to more than 6.5% in 2017
and will remain higher than 6% till 2018.
Economic Advantages
Iran is the 18h largest economy in the world by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).
Iran holds some of the world's largest deposits of proved oil and natural gas reserves, ranking as the
world's fourth-largest and second-largest reserve holder of oil and natural gas, respectively. Iran also
ranks among the world's top 10 oil producers and top 5 natural gas producers
-1.9
4.3
1.9
5.86.7
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-4
-2
0
2
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2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Real GDP Growth (%)
Developing Middle East and N. Africa World Iran, Islamic Rep.
Human Capabilities
Strategic Position
Developed Infrastructure
Economic Advantages
Market Potentials and Proximity
Investment Incentives and Advantages in Free and Special Economic Zones
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Petroleum, Gas, Petrochemical, Steel, Weaving, Food Processing, Car, Electrical and Electronics
Industries are among the key industries in the country. Iran now produces a wide range of manufactured
commodities, such as telecommunications equipment, industrial machinery, paper, rubber products,
steel, food products, wood and leather products, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.
Iran Ranking
7th main producer of total Petroleum & other liquid
4th largest Zinc resources in the world
4th largest Copper resources (5% of the world’s total)
3rd OPEC Crude Oil producer
2nd largest Natural Gas reserves (16% of the world’s total)
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Iran - Export and Import
In 2014 exports from Iran amounted to US$64.2 billion, down 23.4% since 2010. Iran’s top 10 exports
accounted for 96.9% of the overall value of its global shipments. Based on statistics from the
International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook Database, Iran’s total Gross Domestic Product
was $1.354 trillion in 2014. Therefore, exports accounted for about 4.7% of total Iranian economic
output.
Prior to the nuclear sanctions Iran had a great partnership with strong industries such as Germany,
France and Italy. Since 2011 and following the increase of sanctions impacts, Iran concentrated on
China as a business partner. The economists predict that with the after-sanction boost in the economy
Iran will be back into the path of doing business with its European partners. As the local market was
abundant in the last few years, there is a great potential for the global manufacturers and investors to
play a key role in the new chapter of the business relationship between Iran and West.
Considering the impacts of the recent resection, the high inflation rate and Iranian low purchase power,
specialists see a higher potential for investment in infrastructures and strategic industries rather than
importing consuming goods. Therefore, Oil and Gas, Mining and Petrochemicals are the main targets
for the foreign investors in order to enter the local market of Iran.
28%
24%11%
10%
9%
6%
6%
2%2% 2%
TOP 10 IMPORTING COUNTRIES 2014
United Arab Emirates China India
Korea Turkey Germany
Switzerland Netherland United Kingdome
Italy
29%
23%14%
9%
9%
6%
3%3% 2%
2%
TOP 10 EXPORTING COUNTRIES 2014
China Iraq United Arab Emirates
Netherland Afghanistan TurkeyTurkmenistan Pakistan EgyptAzerbaihan
17%
15%
10%
10%10%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%
TOP 10 IMPORTING COUNTRIES 2001
Germany United Arab Emirates Italy
Russia France Brazil
South Korea China Japan
United Kingdom
25%
14%
11%9%
9%
8%
7%
7%
6%4%
TOP 10 EXPORTING COUNTRIES 2001
United Arab Emirates Germany
Japan Azerbajan
Italy India
China Ukraine
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Economy of Iran
Oil and Gas
Iran's crude oil sales to Europe after the lifting of international sanctions on Tehran had already reached
above 300,000 barrels per day (bpd).ii
Iran holds the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, with 157 billion barrels of crude oil. It also holds the
world’s second largest natural gas reserves, behind Russia, with 1,193 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
It is home to the South Pars field, the largest natural gas field in the world.
Iran produced around 2.8 million barrels of oil per day in March 2015. Oil production averaged 3.379
million barrels per day throughout 2014.Iran exported around 1.1 million barrels per day in March 2015,
down from 2.2 million at the beginning of 2012. China, India, Japan, Korea, and Turkey are the
top importers of Iranian liquid fuels.
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Mining
There are approximately 5,000 mines in operation in Iran, with 12 metals and 36 non-metal ores
currently being exploited. Increase in foreign investment and private sector involvement will lead to an
increase in mineral production in the coming years as modern machinery and equipment are put to use.
Iran is one of the top 10 global producers of iron ore, with over 35 million tons of output per year .As
one of the 15 most mineral-rich countries in the world, Iran enjoys export links with 159 countries,
including Iraq, China, the UAE, India, and Afghanistan. Mining products represent over 30% of the
country’s non-oil exports. Iran has some of the world’s richest copper and aluminum reserves. Iran is
also rich in zinc and lead, with over 220 million tons of proven reserves. Production remains below
200,000 tons for zinc and lead, with just under half exported.
Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO) is the major
state-owned holding company. Although 90% of the country’s mines and related large industries are in
state hands; the government has stated its intention to further develop the sector through private and
foreign investment. Minerals targeted for investment include aluminum, copper, and iron ore.
1450
850
750 750
300
1300
0
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800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Sand a& Gravel Decorative Stone Riprap Limestone Gypsum Stone Other Minerals
Number of Mines under Utilization 2013
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Petrochemicals
Of all the country’s export sectors, petrochemicals is expected to get the quickest boost in 2016. Iran is
looking for US$85 billion in investment for its petrochemicals sector and aims to increase production by
a third in the following year.
The government’s National Development Fund of Iran has already committed $5bn to the sector, and
a further $2.5bn is needed to boost production from 45 million tons annually to 60 million tons, according
to the National Petrochemical Company (NPC).
According to the reports, in first-quarter 2015, Petroleum Oils forms 68% of the country’s top
petrochemicals exports with the value of $270,900. Iran ranks polyethylene (HS 390110 and HS
390120) second by value among the country’s exports, accounting for about 5 % of all Iranian exports.
Petroleum Oils (crude)68%
Polyethylene w/specific gravity
≥0.945%
Methanol (methyl alcohole)
3%
Iron Ore Concentrates (ex roasted pyrites)
3%
Polyethylene w/specific gravity
<0.942%
All others19%
Iran's top Exports in first quarter 2015
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Iran Macro Overview 2014
GDP $406.3 bn
GDP real growth rate 4.3%
GDP per capita (PPP) $15.610 (2013)
GDP (composition by sector) Services 45%
Industry 44%
Manufacturing 11%
Agriculture 10%
Labour force 49.0%
Labour force by occupation Services 34.0%
Manufacturing 17.0%
Agriculture 11.4%
Merchandise Exports FOB $ 88.8 bn
Merchandise Imports CIF $ 51 bn
Value of Petroleum Export $ 53.6 bn
Population 78.14 m
Income Level (by per capita) Upper Middle Income
Unemployment rate 12.8%
Life expectancy at birth 76
Inflation Rate 17.2%
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How can we help?
Already in its first month, the year 2016 has brought enormous economic and political changes that will
of course influence the political and economic environment we work and operate in.
Our country has been entrusted with an enormous responsibility as the guarantor of peace and
economic development in the Middle East region.
We pledge to do our best to promote and increase mutual understanding across the nations through
our trade relations everywhere.
Pars Sky Investment Trading PJSC
Pars Sky Investment Trading PJSC a privately owned independent Investment Trading specializing in
offering custom tailored services to manufacturers, entrepreneurs, private and institutional international
investors to assist them start a business with Iran.
As an affiliation of Swiss based TransInvest Group, we have established this company with the purpose
of helping manufacturers get into Iran’s emerging- frontier market. We are working with a team of
professionals whom are internationally trained. Our partners are financiers, industrialists and
transporters. They not only have international finance and business experiences but are also expert in
Iran's dynamic market and its sectors (Oil and Gas, Industry and Mining, Petrochemicals and
Transportation).
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Sources
Word Bank Data
International Monetary Fund Data (IMF)
Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (TCCIM)
The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA)
Trade Promotion Organization of Iran
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO)
The National Petrochemical Company (NPC)
i IMF International Monetary Fund ii http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-sales-idUSKCN0VF0NE