Scenarios in environmental and energy assessment

Frans Berkhout

Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

2

Aims of the lecture

• To describe the uses of scenarios

• To give some historical background

• To define three scenario approaches

• To describe two scenario exercises and the lessons learned

3

What is a scenario?

‘…archetypal descriptions of alternative images of the future, created from mental maps or models that reflect different perspectives on...future developments’

Rotmans and van Asselt, 1998

4

What is a futures scenario?

Attracting

and

repelling

forces

Past Present Future

Future

state

2

Driving

forces

Sideswipes

Future

state

1

Future

state

3

Current

state

5

Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios

Today’s weather forecast

6

Source: KNMI, 1 Nov 2009

Oil price forecast

7

Source: Sals.aNewsletter,Feb 2009

8

Aim of scenarios

‘...to illuminate choices of the present in the light of possible futures...’ (Godet, 1996)

i.e. not predictions

9

Why scenarios?

• To conduct analysis in the future

• To conduct integrated analysis

• To illuminate long-term problems

• To develop common understandings of problems

• To explore robust solutions

• To facilitate and plan for change

10

A short history of scenarios

Several intellectual roots:– Strategic planning (1950s, Thinking the Unthinkable,

Kahn) and operations research (1950s-60s)

– ‘Limits to Growth’ modelling (early 1970s, Forrester and Meadows) using computable systems analysis

– Corporate strategic planning (early 1970s, Shell) emphasizing narrative logics

– La Prospective (1980s) suggesting the integration of models and narratives

11

Output from World2 (Meadows et al, 1999)

12

Scenarios today

• Business strategy scenarios: understanding risk

• New conversation scenarios: opening up options

• Groups-in-conflict scenarios: understanding differences

• Public interest scenarios: developing common agendas and action

• Scientific scenarios: assessing long-range biophysical systems perturbed by human action

(Raskin, 2002)

13

Global assessments

Global Scenarios Group (1995, SEI, environment, poverty)

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000, IPCC, climate change)

Global Environment Outlook (2002, UNEP, environment)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005, MEA, ecosystem services)

14

Futures scenarios: assumptions

• The future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice and action

• The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present decisions

• There are multiple possible futures, scenarios map a ‘possibility space’

• Scenario development involves rational analysis and subjective judgement

15

When are scenarios appropriate?

• Discontinuous change is expected within normal planning horizons

• There is a perceived lack of ‘adaptive capacity’

• There is a risk of maladaptation to future conditions

• There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing ‘robust strategies’

16

Components of scenarios

Models

Indicators/parameters

Storylines

17

Models, scenarios, stories

18

Models to narratives

• Models are appropriate for simulating well-understood systems over short time-periods

• With higher complexity and longer time horizonsthe power of prediction diminishes

19

Special challenges in building scenarios

• Indeterminacy in social and economic theory

• Emergence of novelty and innovation

• Reflexivity and volition

• Contested futures

20

Scenario approaches

• Extrapolatory: quantitative, deterministic

• Normative: qualitative, visionary

• Exploratory: quantitative and qualitative, synthetic

21

Uses of approaches

Extrapolatory

• Routine in planning and strategy

• Relationships and dynamics well-understood

• Assumption of continuity

• Well-defined expertise and methods

22

Uses of approaches

Normative (ie ‘backcasting’)

• Becoming more common in corporate and policy communications

• Ad hoc approaches, no well-defined methods

• Assumption of control

23

Use of approaches

Exploratory

• Not routine

• Relationships and dynamics not well-understood

• Expectation of discontinuity

• Poorly-defined and heterogenous methods

24

Case 1: SRES Scenarios

• Need for emissions parameters for climate models

• Covers all radiatively important gases

• 4 ‘macro-regions’

• 6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM

25

Process

• Review

• Identify drivers

• Formulate narrative storylines

• Quantify storylines using models

• ‘Open’ review process

26

Ground-rules

• No ‘business as usual’ scenario

• No probabilities ascribed

• No climate policy assumed

• No adaptation assumed

27

Principal dynamics

• Population growth

• GDP growth

• Energy and technological change

• Land-use change

28

The scenario dimensions

ECONOMIC

GLOBAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

REGIONAL

A1 A2

B1 B2

29

Scenario storylines

A1: rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid adoption of new technologies, convergence of regions, capacity building, increased social interaction, reduced region differences in per capita income

30

Scenario storylines

A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and local identities preserved, high population growth, regionally-specific economic growth, fragmented economic and technological development

31

Scenario storylines

B1: convergent world with low population growth, transition to service and info economy, resource productivity improvements, clean technology towards global solutions

32

Scenario storylines

B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic growth, less rapid technological change

33

SRES Scenario families

34

SRES Emissions scenarios

35

Global emissions scenarios

36

Climate futures

Low, middle

and high:

temperatures

(compared to

1980-99)

37

Climate scenarios (2007) + burning embers (2001)

38

The pyramid of uncertainty

Source: Schneider, 2003

Scenarios with probabilities

39

Source: DenElzen et al. 2007

Types of uncertainty, probability and scenarios

40

41

Some problems and weaknesses

• Conceptual framework not well specified

• Feedbacks between environmental and social and economic development not considered

• Too much emphasis on conventional drivers (I=PAT formula)

42

Case 2: The UK Foresight ‘Environmental Futures’ framework

43

Drivers and some outcomes

Berkhout and Hertin, 2002

44

Method

• Facilitation of ‘stakeholder’ workshops

• Possibility space elaborated through associations created by the grid

• Principal of ‘symmetry’ in elaboration

• Synthesis and iteration

• Analysis of alternative strategies

• (Evaluation)

45

Uses

• Scenario planning for policy and agencies– qualitative

– open, participative, multidisciplinary

– based on experience of practitioners

– one-off events (often workshops)

– Scenarios as communication tool

• Scenarios in scientific assessment– qualitative and quantitative

– expert-driven, some inclusive procedures

– use data and expert knowledge

– carried out over longer time periods

– scenario as assessment tool

46

Examples

• Scenario planning in policy and agencies– Foresight Crime Prevention Panel

– Natural Environment Research Council

• Scenarios in scientific assessment– ACACIA Project

– National Water Demand Management Centre

– Digital Futures Project

47

Lessons

Scenario exercises can play two roles:

• Expands the range of future outcomes that are considered in strategy/planning (policy learning)

• Engagement with scenario elaboration precipitates self-reflection, preparing the ground for change (organisational learning)

48

Lessons: Getting the process right

• Preparation

• Workshop moderation

• Analysis and reporting– Symmetry

– Balance

– Triangulation

49

Summary

• Views of the future are ubiquitous

• Scenarios are one way of ordering views about the future

• Scenario approaches have a long history, especially in integrated environmental assessments

• There are different ways of conducting a scenarios exercise – some of them quite simple

• The results of scenarios are often difficult to embed in current decision-making