Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe

Co-ordinating Team:

Jan Rotmans

Chris Anastasi

Marjolein van Asselt

Caroline van Bers

Dale Rothman

Sandra Greeuw

Joanne Mellors

Jasper Grosskurth

Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community

Rio de Janeiro, October 6-8, 2001

THE VISIONS PROJECT

• European Commission: Directorate-General Research and Development

• Nine partner institutes across Europe

• Co-ordinator: ICIS

• Duration: 1998 - 2001

GOAL

To develop challenging futures for Europe in an innovative, scientifically sound way

on behalf of the social debate and strategic planning

RESEARCH PARADIGM

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an interdisciplinary process of structuring

knowledge elements from various scientific disciplines in such a manner that all relevant

aspects of a societal problem are considered in their mutual coherence for the benefit of

decision-making

INTEGRATING SCALES

GLOBAL TRENDS

EUROPEAN SCENARIOS

North West UK

REGIONAL SCENARIOS

Venice

Represents scenario

Green Heart

INTEGRATED VISIONS

INTEGRATING SECTORS, FACTORS AND ACTORS

Sectors • energy• water• transport• infrastructure

Factors • equity• employment• consumption

behaviour• environmental

degradation

Actors• governmental

organisations• NGOs• businesses• scientists

INTEGRATING METHODS

• Participatory methods (workshops, focus groups, interviews, expert panels)

• Models (QUEST, Green Heart model, PHOENIX, Worldscan)

FORMS OF PARTICIPATION

• Storyline Workshopsfree format / predefined inputlarger groupheterogeneous / homogeneous

• Focus Groups predefined inputsmaller grouphomogeneous

• In-depth Interviewspredefined inputindividualsrange of backgrounds

INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK

Participatory element Analytical tools

InterviewsParticipatory modelling

Northwest-UKNorthwest-UKModel-supported

REGIONSREGIONS

Story-linesExpert groupsEnvisioning workshops

Data-based and Model- supportedEUROPEEUROPE

WORLDWORLDExpert group Data collection & Trend analyses

Green HeartGreen HeartModel-supported

Tensions group Transitions,Cultural Theory &Models

VeniceVeniceFocus groups Interviews

Narrative & ICT tools

Story-linesExpert groupsEnvisioning workshops

EUROPE Research Process

Storyline workshop

Aggregation Enriching

Evaluation workshop

Maturing

Tensions workshop

Screening Developing Rephrasing

Linkages workshop

Integration workshop

Strengthening Integration

Expert workshop

PARTICIPATION

DESK WORK

EUROPE

• Knowledge is King: What if the nature of technological development encourages local capacity building while it facilitates globalisation?

• Convulsive Change: What if climate change and other environmental problems are highly detrimental, outpacing society’s ability to adapt?

• Big is Beautiful?: What if the ‘merger principle’ not only affects major industries, but also deeply affects social, cultural, institutional and ecological patterns?

INTEGRATION PROCEDURE

Storylines ImagesSectoralscenarios Storylines

Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios

Vision

Scenario pairs Scenario pairs Scenario pairs

Scenario quartet

SELECTION PROCEDURE

• Similarities and tensions in terms of: dynamics, management style, outlooks, driving forces.

• Combinations with the most emergent patterns from Europe - region interaction

• Every European scenario should appear at least once

INTEGRATED VISION

• Living on the edge

• Europe in transition

• Shadows of Europe Ltd.

Underlying scenarios:

Europe: knowledge is king

North-West UK: sustainable communities

Green Heart: technology rules

Venice: cyberia

Dynamics

• Transition to high-tech society with a human face • Coupled transitions: economy, technology,

lifestyle, work, governance and demography• European and regional developments strengthen

each other • Transition with the necessary problems

Characteristics

• Societal divide: ‘connected’ and ‘unconnected’• Mass migration from East Europe• Societal battlefield: revolution of the unconnected• Network-governance • Large participation on all levels • Co-existence of two groups

Underlying scenarios:

Europe: knowledge is king

North-West UK: sustainable communities

Green Heart: technology rules

Venice: cyberia

SOCIAL CULTURE

POLITICAL

UNIQUE FEATURES OF VISIONS

• Bottom-up and participatory• Surprises• Complexity• Integrated (multi-scale and multi-

domain)

The process of envisioning is at least as important as the the ultimate

visions themselves

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Communicating the messages resulting from the envisioning

process is difficult.

Difficulties with engaging stakeholders

• availability• interests• recognisability• credibility

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Structure and composition of stakeholder group should

determine the kind of participatory method to use

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

Future scenario exercises should be more stakeholder-oriented than

purely stakeholder-driven

There is a big gap between the increasing complexity of our

society and the analytical tools (IAmodels) that try to address this

complexity

IAModels only cover a small partof the required complexity

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

There is definitely a need for integrated visions (multi-scale,

multi-domain, multi-perspective),but there are still hurdles to

overcome

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• Participation and Modelling• Transitions• Uncertainty

RESEARCH AGENDA

• Check out the ICIS website: www.icis.unimaas.nl

• Contact us: icis@icis.unimaas.nl

Interested?