Post on 22-Mar-2018
transcript
Theme of the Day:
Overview of Atlantic Grupa’s Historical Trading MultiplesBond, Money and Currency Markets:
Romanian GDP Increased by 4.8% in the Ultimate Quarter of 2016Croatian Equity Market:
HT Lays off Another 100 Workers, PBZ Proposes Dividend of HRK 25.33 per ShareRegional Equity Market:
Earnings Season Kicks in RomaniaGlobal Equity Market:
U.S. Equities Post New Records Technical Perspective - Region:
HTRA ZA - Resistance @ 178,50Technical Perspective - Global:
DAX - Support @ 11430
IC Daily Highlights
•[CROATIA] HT plan to lay off another 100 workers•[CROATIA] PBZ Bank's AGM will take place on 27 March, Management proposes HRK 25.33 DPS•[CROATIA] Tehnika's preliminary 2016 results show sales down 28% (to HRK 454m), net profit HRK 0.9m (+91%)•[SLOVENIA] Luka Koper inaugurates new craine rails and two rail-mounted gantry cranes•[ROMANIA] Banca Transilvania's 2016 cons net profit down 48% to RON 1.3bn•[ROMANIA] Nuclearelectrica's 2016 non-cons net profit down 27% to RON 109m•[ROMANIA] Transelectrica's 2016 non-cons net profit down 21% to RON 286m•[ROMANIA] FP's 2016 net profit RON 447m (from a RON 565m loss)•[ROMANIA] BVB's 2016 profit up 19% YoY•[ROMANIA] Q4 GDP growth rate 4.7% YoY (flash estimate), FY2016 GDP up 4.8%•[SERBIA] Stock Exchange will be closed today and tomorrow•[BULGARIA] Q4 2016 unemployment rate was 6.7%•[BULGARIA] Q4 2016 GDP growth rate 3.4% YoY (flash estimate)•[BULGARIA] Q4 2016 avg. gross monthly wage rises 8.2% YoY
IC Daily Newsflash
InterCapital Contacts
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures
IC MARKET ESPRESSOInterCapital Research
15 February 2017
Quote of the Day:„As a speculator you must embrace disorder and
chaos.”
Louis Bacon
Ivan DražetićMoney Market and Fixed Income, DealerPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 852E-mail: Ivan.Drazetic@InterCapital.hr
Kristina PukšecHead of Fixed Income and Money MarketPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854E-mail: Kristina.Puksec@InterCapital.hr
IC.traderInterCapital.hr1
Đivo PulitikaAnalystPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 867E-mail: Divo.Pulitika@InterCapital.hr
Croatia I Slovenia I Romania I Bulgaria I Serbia
Margareta MaresićJunior AnalystPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 857E-mail: Margareta.Maresic@InterCapital.hr
Renata ČempuhHead of Front OfficePhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 890E-mail: Renata.Cempuh@InterCapital.hr
Danijel DelačHead of BrokeragePhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 894E-mail: Danijel.Delac@InterCapital.hr
Filip MajićBrokerPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 896E-mail: Filip.Majic@InterCapital.hr
Marin OnoratoMoney Market and Fixed Income, DealerPhone: + 385 (0)1 4343 180E-mail: Marin.Onorato@InterCapital.hr
Marcel DimačJunior AnalystPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 858E-mail: Marcel.Dimac@InterCapital.hr
Date Announcement
15-Feb-17 Fondul Proprietatea - FY 2016 (prelim.)
15-Feb-17 Banca Transilvania - FY 2016 (prelim.)
15-Feb-17 Transgaz - FY 2016 (prelim.)
15-Feb-17 Transelectrica - FY 2016 (prelim.)
15-Feb-17 Nuclearelectrica - FY 2016 (prelim.)
16-Feb-17 OMV Petrom - FY 2016 results (prelim.)
16-Feb-17 Romgaz - FY 2016 (prelim.)
20-Feb-17 Petrol - FY 2016 results
23-Feb-17 TLSG - FY 2016 (prelim.)
Upcoming Announcements
Company Investment Thesis
VALAMARRIVIERA
One of the largest hospitality groupsFavourable accommodation positioning
Strong growth potential
PETROLGROUP
Stable cash flowHigh level of debt
Strong retail player
ADRISGROUP
Strategic shiftStrong cash position
Growth potential in insurance
FONDULPROPR.
Managed by Franklin TempletonSignificant discount to NAV
Possible privatizations of portfolio companies
Top Regional Investment Stories
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
16-Feb-16 16-May-16 16-Aug-16 16-Nov-16
CRO Index SBITOP Index BELEX15 Index
BET Index SOFIX Index
Source: Bloomberg
Regional indices TTM
Overview of Atlantic Grupa’s Historical Trading Multiples
Theme of the Day
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 2 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Key financials from 2009
EV/EBITDA, horizontal line represents the median value
P/E, horizontal line represents the median value
9%10%
10%
11% 12% 12%
10% 10%
4% 5%
1% 1%
4% 4% 4% 5%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 T12 2016
Mill
ion
sH
RK
Sales EBITDA margin Net margin
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Due to the loan for takeover of Droga Kolinska
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Sep-2010ATGR publishedit's takoing overKalnička Voda
Jun-2010takeover of Droga
Kolinska
Nov-2012debt refinancing
with EBRD, IFCand 4 comm. banks
Sep-2013investments in a
new factory inNova Gradiska Sep-2013
taking over the Unilever
distribution
Nov-2014taking over the
Foodland
May-2016reschedules loans
with EBRD, IFC until 2021
The median P/E in the period post 2010 stands at 14.6x, coupled with 8.2x EV/EBITDA. The shares are currently traded at 12.8x P/E and 9.17x EV/EBITDA based on trailing 12M financials.
In the light of the positive developments on the Croatian stock market lately, Atlantic Grupa’s share didn’t lag far behind. It showed a solidperformance, as from the beginning of the year it went up by 6.75% (based on yesterday’s closing price pf HRK 943.76), while CROBEX increased by8.72%. Therefore, for today we decided to see the historical development of Atlantic’s key financials and valuation. Note that we’ve used trailing(past) financials to calculate the multiples.
Atlantic Grupa went public in November 2007 with HRK 935 per share, which gave a P/E of 45.65 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.67. At yesterday’s closingprice P/E stood at 12.80 and an EV/EBITDA at 9.17. The graphs are showing that multiples were in a falling trend from 2011 onwards, and arecurrently somewhere near their median values for the post-2010 period.
In the course of the last six years Atlantic Grupa’s business was marked by several major things, among which we would emphasize the takeover ofDroga Kolinska and Kalnička Voda in 2010, signing a deal on debt refinancing with EBRD, IFC and 4 commercial banks, the beginning of investmentin a new factory in Nova Gradiška in September 2013, takeover of the Croatian and Slovenian distribution for Unilever at the end of 2013, takeoverof Foodland in 2014 and another debt refinancing deal with EBRD and IFC in 2016.
Romanian GDP Increased by 4.8% in the Ultimate Quarter of 2016
Bond, money and currency markets
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital domestic bond quotes Bloomberg: INKA5 <GO>BBG User: INTERCAPITAL FI
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 3 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Romanian Institute of Statistics published yesterday that GDP grew by 4.8% in 2016, thelargest GDP growth among EU28 countries. In Q4 2016 seasonally adjusted GDPincreased by 4.8% YOY, while it grew 1.3% compared to Q3. QOQ growth shows that Q3decelerated growth was a one-off event, implying economy has not been losing steam.
While personal consumption growth was massive in H1 2016, Q3 data showed modestdeceleration. At that moment someone could think that we’re watching at the very endof robust growth, yet recent data on retail sales and sentiment indicators (both of whichare leading indicators) showed there is more to story than that. Growth in last quarter of2016 was most likely driven by increase in personal consumption, reflecting robustdomestic demand at the turn of the year.
Last year’s GDP growth of 4.8% is the highest growth since 2008 and the growth is stillnot showing signs of slowing down. Nevertheless, there are several challengesRomanian economy has to meet by the turn of the current year. First, there weremassive protests accompanying a high degree of social unrest. Second, the budget lawstill has a lot a lot of moving parts (i. e. parts subject to sudden change). Namely, newbudget law expects deficit to reach 3.0% GDP, however recently promised wage andpension hikes have not yet been fully implemented into the budget. Also, governmentexpectations are built upon 5.2% YOY GDP growth, which could be quite a challengeconsidering higher energy prices, a non-existent slack on the labour market and previouswage hikes.
All in all, one has to admit that Romania saw the single largest GDP growth in EU28 lastyear. The deterioration of public finance is still something to worry about since publicexpenditures are like a kitten stuck in a tree – once it goes up, it doesn’t know how tocome down on its own.
Source: NIS, InterCapital
INDICATOR CRO SLO SRB ROM BULGDP (YoY, %) 2,9 2,7 2,5 4,7 3,2ten-year yield (%) 2,8 3,4 6,5 1,9 1,5CPI headline (YoY, %) 0,2 1,3 1,6 0,1 0,1PPI (YoY, %) 0,0 0,5 2,2 0,9 0,6ind. Production (YoY, %) 14,9 10,2 3,9 3,9 7,0retail (YoY, %) 6,1 10,1 6,8 8,4 3,5unemployment (YoY, %) 14,8 7,5 16,9 4,8 8,0budget balance (% GDP) -1,3 -2,7 -4,6 -0,8 -1,7public debt (% GDP) 88,3 86,2 78,5 39,3 26,7
Macroeconomic indicators
bond curr. coupon price mid ytm
CROATIA
CROATI 18 EUR 5,875% 108,04 0,08%CROATI 22 EUR 3,875% 108,48 2,16%CROATI 25 EUR 3,000% 101,57 2,78%CROATI 17 USD 5,500% 100,88 1,70%CROATI 19 USD 6,750% 109,10 3,22%CROATI 20 USD 5,625% 109,71 3,57%CROATI 21 USD 6,375% 109,80 3,77%CROATI 23 USD 5,500% 106,87 4,21%CROATI 24 USD 6,000% 110,01 4,32%
SLOVENIA
SLOVEN 18 EUR 4,000% 104,80 -0,38%SLOVEN 18 USD 4,750% 103,40 1,94%SLOVEN 22 USD 5,500% 111,56 3,26%SLOVEN 23 USD 5,850% 113,94 3,35%SLOVEN 24 USD 5,250% 111,00 3,47%
SERBIA
SERBIA 17 USD 5,250% 102,31 2,17%SERBIA 18 USD 5,825% 105,27 2,84%SERBIA 20 USD 4,875% 103,32 3,70%SERBIA 21 USD 7,250% 113,40 4,04%SERBIA 24 USD 6,750% 101,64 6,47%
BULGARIA
BULGARIA 17 EUR 4,250% 101,89 -0,57%BULGARIA 22 EUR 2,000% 105,66 0,86%BULGARIA 24 EUR 2,950% 109,12 1,65%BULGARIA 27 EUR 2,625% 103,62 2,22%BULGARIA 35 EUR 3,125% 97,75 3,29%
ROMANIA
ROMANIA18 EUR 6,500% 108,80 -0,10%ROMANIA19 EUR 4,875% 112,75 0,17%ROMANIA20 EUR 4,625% 115,74 0,21%ROMANIA22 USD 6,750% 115,21 3,39%ROMANIA24 USD 4,875% 107,43 3,65%
Eurobonds
DUR. Zibor Euribor Belibor Robor(HRK) (EUR) (RSD) (RON)
O/N 0,39% n.a. 2,94% 0,45%1M 0,52% -0,37% 3,33% 0,62%3M 0,63% -0,33% 3,46% 0,81%6M 0,75% -0,24% 3,69% 1,04%9M 0,81% -0,16% n.a. 1,15%1Y 0,94% -0,10% n.a. 1,22%
Interest rates
ask
local sovereign, currency clause
RHMF-O-19BA
RHMF-O-203E
RHMF-O-227E
RHMF-O-247E
local sovereign, HRK
RHMF-O-17BA
RHMF-O-187A
RHMF-O-203A
RHMF-O-217A
RHMF-O-222A
RHMF-O-257A
RHMF-O-26CA
RHMF-O-282A
4,68 4,69
100,20 101,20 2,85% 2,75% 9,35 9,3607/02/2028
2,250%
2,875%
100,90 101,90 2,06% 1,85%
7,05 7,06
8,08 8,1014/12/2026 4,250% 112,50 113,70 2,79% 2,66%
104,10 1,96% 1,77%08/07/2021 2,750%
2,75% 2,60%114,20113,004,500%09/07/2025
103,30
07/02/2022
0,69%
217,38
4,12
6,15
0,750,75
4,12
2,73
6,142,81% 2,65%
2,73
ticker maturity couponprice ytm
10/07/2024
05/03/2020 6,500% 114,80 115,60
29/11/2019
22/07/2022 6,500% 121,50
bench.
spreadbid ask bid bid ask
m. duration
128,131,50% 1,23%
133,99
191,85
5,375% 110,50 111,30 2,58 2,59
4,68
2,741,51% 1,26% 2,74
4,672,27% 2,06%
5,750% 119,50 120,70
122,70
1,35
25/11/2017
1,35
0,19%104,65104,256,250%
05/03/2020 6,750% 115,30 116,00
10/07/2018 5,250% 105,85 0,74%
1,58% 1,37%
106,25 1,02%
quotations
5.25 5.108.10
4.38
8.058.78
-7.05
-0.70
1.00
3.28
3.78
4.90
-8.50
-6.50
-4.50
-2.50
-0.50
1.50
3.50
5.50
7.50
9.50
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
%, Y
oY
Romanian Annual GDP Change (%)
Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4
Avg
Day YTD 1YLast
Price EV/S P/EEV /
EBITDANet debt / EBITDA ROE (%) Div. Yld
CROBEX* 0,7% 8,7% 35,7% 2.169 1,26 24,02 10,17 2,23 5,1% 2,4%
SBITOP -0,1% 6,0% 13,4% 760 0,55 12,09 6,48 2,15 7,7% 4,8%
BELEX15 0,8% -1,2% 21,6% 709 0,82 28,76 5,71 0,61 2,5% 4,3%
BET -0,4% 7,4% 24,0% 7.609 1,07 17,00 3,45 -0,79 5,3% 7,0%
SOFIX -0,9% 2,4% 35,2% 601 0,96 12,61 7,61 1,47 5,0% 1,7%
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
16-Feb-16 16-May-16 16-Aug-16 16-Nov-16
CRO Index
CRO10 Index
CROPLUS Index
Source: Bloomberg
Definite focus today is expected on Romania, as some of the main BET components publishedpreliminary 2016 statements this mornings. Here we bring you a brief overview:
[Romania – Banca Transilvania – TLV RO] The comparability of 2016 results to 2015 isimpacted by the big positive one-off related to the takeover of Volksbank in 2015 (RON 1.7bn).Still, Banca Transilvania recorded sound organic growth. On a consolidated level, net interestincome is down 10% to RON 1.8bn, followed by a 12% increase in net fee and commission income(to RON 545m). Net income is down by 48% to RON 1.3bn (up 60% excluding gains fromacquisition).
[Romania – Nuclearelectrica – SNN RO] Non-cons operating revenues are down 6% to RON1.7bn. This was followed by a 3% decrease in EBITDA and a 1% decrease in EBIT. Net profit standsat RON 109m, down by 27% YoY. Although EBIT was flattish, the bottom line was impacted bynegative FX.
[Romania – Transelectrica – TEL RO] Non-cons EBIT from profit allowed activities was down by35% to RON 277m. Zero profit activities recorded EBIT of RON 88m (+260%). Summed up, totalEBIT is down 19% to RON 364m. With rather unchanged result from financial activities, thebottom line is down 21% to RON 286m.
Earnings Season Kicks in Romania
Regional Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 4
Yesterday Hrvatski Telekom published that within the scope of transformation a workersurplus was determined and that the company intends to reduce the number ofemployees by the end of March 2017. As a part of the restructuring process thecompany has been reducing its workforce for years now. At the end of 2010 it had 6,332full time employees, which was down at 4,639 at the end of Sep 2016 (-26.7%).However, the company pointed out that this will be the lowest number of workersleaving the company since the start of the transformation process. According to thepublication, the average severance payment cost per employee will amount to HRK230k, or about HRK 23m in total. In comparison, in 2014 HT paid cc. HRK 138m, in 2015cc. HRK 67m and in 2016 cc. HRK 51m.
The Management Board of the second largest bank in Croatia measured by total assets,PBZ Bank, proposed dividend payment in the amount of HRK 25.33 per share via theZagreb Stock Exchange. Among other topics, the discussion on the 2016 financial reportsand use of profits will be held on General Assembly on 27 March. The ex-dividend date is13 April, while the payment is envisaged on 20 April at the latest. Compared to the pricea day before this announcement, the amount of dividend gives a 2.96% yield.
HT Lays off Another 100 Workers, PBZ Proposes Dividend of HRK 25.33 per Share
Croatian Equity Market
Index fundamentals
Daily market snapshot
Volume: EUR 2.09m
* ATPLRA ZA and ADRSPA ZA are excluded from CROBEX multiples and ratios due to large one-off event / Market snapshot includes only main index components
IC.traderInterCapital.hr
90
95
100
105
110
115
16-Feb-16 16-May-16 16-Aug-16 16-Nov-16
SBITOP Index
Source: Bloomberg
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
16-Feb-16 16-May-16 16-Aug-16 16-Nov-16
BELEX15 Index
BELEXLIN Index
Source: Bloomberg
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
14-Jan-16 14-Apr-16 14-Jul-16 14-Oct-16
BET Index
BET-BK Index
Source: Bloomberg
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
16-Feb-16 16-May-16 16-Aug-16 16-Nov-16
SOFIX Index
BGBX40 Index
Source: Bloomberg
Banca Transilvania 3,74 Intereuropa 13,94% Industrial Capital Holding -5,56%
BRD 1,40 Dalekovod 11,52% CB Central Cooperative Bank -4,58%
Energoprojekt holding 1,01 M+S Hydraulic 6,78% Belje -2,10%
Advance Terrafund REIT 0,66 Atlantska plovidba 4,69% Holding Varna -2,05%
Fondul Proprietatea 0,43 Ingra 4,41% Duro Dakovic -1,93%
Monbat 0,38 Uljanik Plovidba 3,74% CB First Investment Bank -1,77%
Transgaz 0,35 Valamar Riviera 3,21% Neochim -1,75%
Romgaz 0,32 Komercijalna banka 3,02% Eurohold Bulgaria -1,59%
Valamar Riviera 0,32 Stara Planina Holding 1,84% Luka Rijeka -1,53%
Volume (EURm) Winners Laggards
Volume: EUR 0.76m
Volume: EUR 1.06m
Volume: EUR 7.21m
Volume: EUR 1.60m
S&P 500 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 0,6% 6,0% 2,7% 8,1% 5,4% 24,1% INDUSTRIALS 0,1% 4,4% 2,9% 5,9% 10,2% 30,1%
CONSUMER STAPLES 0,1% 3,5% 4,0% 5,9% -2,1% 7,3% INFO TECH 0,3% 8,2% 4,8% 11,3% 11,2% 35,3%
ENERGY 0,1% -3,5% -2,1% 1,6% 4,7% 28,4% MATERIALS 0,1% 5,6% 3,2% 8,7% 7,8% 31,2%
FINANCIALS 1,2% 4,4% 3,3% 9,7% 24,8% 46,4% TELECOM SERVICES -0,1% -6,0% -3,9% 6,4% -7,3% 4,1%
HEALTHCARE 0,7% 5,5% 2,6% 3,4% -2,8% 13,1% UTILITIES -0,7% 0,9% 1,1% 5,3% -1,7% 8,0%
day 1 Y YTD
North/South AmericaDOW JONES 0,45% 28,36% 3,75%
S&P 500 0,40% 25,35% 4,41%
NASDAQ 0,32% 33,32% 7,42%
S&P/TSX 0,19% 27,50% 3,26%
BOLSA -0,57% 9,69% 3,83%
BOVESPA -0,38% 66,40% 10,77%
MERVAL 0,51% 71,17% 15,89%
IPSA -0,35% 18,02% 4,62%
Asia/PacificS&P/ASX 200 0,94% 19,94% 2,53%
NIKKEI 225 1,03% 21,32% 1,69%
HANG SENG 1,06% 26,61% 8,87%
SHCOPM -0,15% 17,00% 3,52%
KOSPI 0,45% 11,90% 2,83%
TWSE 0,83% 21,49% 5,90%
SET -0,35% 21,61% 1,55%
BSE SENSEX 30 -0,72% 19,45% 5,67%
Africa/Near East/RussiaFTSE/JSE 0,27% 2,66% 3,78%
XU 100 -0,15% 23,86% 12,56%
Hermes -1,84% 111,57% 3,07%
Tel Aviv 100 0,11% 5,59% -0,50%
MICEX 10 -0,50% 23,32% -4,66%
RTS 0,34% 66,56% 2,23%
Western EuropeDJ EURO STOXX 50 0,11% 16,76% 0,56%
FTSE 100 -0,14% 24,80% 1,76%
CAC 40 0,16% 18,97% 0,69%
DAX -0,02% 27,86% 2,53%
IBEX 35 0,28% 16,27% 1,69%
S&P/MIB 30 0,65% 12,59% -0,24%
SMI -0,43% 7,36% 2,51%
0,37% 33,02% 6,65%ATX
IndexChange (%)
U.S. equities closed higher Tuesday, posting new record highs, as investors digestedtestimony from the top Federal Reserve official.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in prepared remarks that waiting too long to raise interestrates would be "unwise," given the rise in inflation and economic growth. Marketexpectations for a rate hike next month rose to 23 percent from 16 percent followingYellen's remarks. Tuesday also marked the first time Yellen testifies following PresidentDonald Trump's election.
"The markets were anxiously awaiting Chair Yellen's comments, but not expectinganything out of the ordinary," said Myles Clouston, senior director at Nasdaq AdvisoryServices. "There's also some momentum chasing the market higher; we are at all-timehighs."
U.S. Equities Post New Records
Global Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
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STOXX EUROPE 600 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y
AUTOMOBILES & PARTS 1,1% 3,7% 0,9% 14,2% 13,8% 24,4% INSURANCE 0,4% 5,8% 4,5% 8,8% 10,0% 18,5%
BANKS -0,7% 3,9% 2,4% 8,1% 8,3% 26,1% MEDIA -0,3% 0,1% 0,1% 10,8% 1,3% 2,6%
BASIC RESOURCES 0,7% 0,4% 2,7% 7,0% -6,7% 2,9% OIL & GAS -0,1% -2,9% -3,7% 10,2% 10,5% 27,9%
CHEMICALS -0,3% 2,7% 1,6% 9,2% 9,8% 21,8% REAL ESTATE 0,3% 1,2% 1,2% 7,2% 16,7% 17,1%
CONST. & MATERIALS 1,0% 3,3% 0,3% 9,8% 28,3% 23,4% RETAIL -0,3% -0,7% 0,9% 7,0% -6,8% -2,0%
CONSUMER GOODS 0,4% 1,8% 2,4% 8,9% 4,8% 4,2% TECHNOLOGY -0,4% 13,6% 6,4% 21,2% 40,8% 95,9%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0,4% 1,4% 0,8% 6,9% -5,5% 1,2% TELECOM SERVICES 0,1% -2,4% -5,2% 4,0% -6,3% -8,8%
FOOD & BEVERAGE 0,1% 5,7% 4,3% 17,2% 7,5% 26,1% TRAVEL & LEASURE -0,0% 3,8% 2,2% 9,9% 8,6% 25,8%
HEALTH CARE -0,3% 2,9% 2,5% 6,9% -2,4% 5,9% UTILITIES 0,1% -0,3% 0,4% 1,7% 1,4% 1,2%
IND. GOODS & SERVICES -0,5% 3,6% 2,4% 10,3% 1,6% 10,7%
Today we are looking @ daily HTRA graph. It continues to move upwards and resistancethat provides high from 23/12/2013 @ 178,50 is in the reach. First support providesSMAVG50. Additional support provides high from 14/04/2015 @ 170. RSI is in upwardtrend and is above 50 points.
HTRA ZA - Resistance @ 178,50 (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Region
Today we are looking @ daily DAX index. It breached resistance that was provided byhigh from 23/06/2015 @ 11635. Next resistance provides high from 26/05/2015 @11920 and psychological level @ 12000. First support provides high from 30/11/2015and SMAVG50. RSI breached red downward trend.
DAX - Support @ 11430 (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Global
We would be sellers around 178,50
Trading Suggestion:
We would be buyers in case resistance @ 11920 gets breached
Trading Suggestion:
Technical Targets:12390… high 2015
12000… psychological level11920… high 26/05/2015
11772… last11635… high 23/06/2015
11516… SMAVG5011430… high 30/11/201510802… high 15/08/2016
Technical Targets:180,00… high 2017179,50… high 2016
176,95… last172,72… SMAVG50170,00… high 2015
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 6 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 7 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Company
Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/SEV /
EBITDANet debt / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Industrial
Koncar 2016-09 277,4 804,04 0,5% 16,5% 26,1% 13,67 0,88 20,40 0,56 7,45 -2,46 4,1% 6,4% 12,00 1,5%
Ericsson NT 2016-09 234,4 1.312,37 0,1% 12,7% 48,9% 19,72 7,46 9,70 1,02 11,05 -1,35 11,9% 37,9% 100,00 7,6%
Petrokemija 2016-09 29,2 16,90 2,6% -5,6% 73,5% -3,08 2,12 14,13 0,44 18,92 14,31 -6,1% -69,0% 0,00 0,0%
Duro Dakovic 2016-12 47,1 46,17 -1,9% 2,3% 32,1% -17,32 3,85 -2,87 1,21 40,51 19,26 -2,9% n/a 0,00 0,0%
AD Plastik 2016-09 84,9 150,62 -0,3% 8,7% 56,2% 14,03 0,96 -21,32 1,03 7,79 2,79 3,4% 6,9% 12,00 8,0%
Gorenje 2016-09 155,8 6,38 0,2% 6,4% 47,0% 28,14 0,43 2,54 0,45 6,24 4,51 0,5% 1,5% 0,00 0,0%
Cinkarna 2016-09 153,9 188,90 2,1% 16,6% 162,4% 15,20 1,05 16,08 0,77 5,17 -1,00 5,5% 6,9% 4,20 2,2%
Metalac 2016-06 28,0 1.700,00 0,0% 0,8% 32,3% 8,00 0,77 7,11 0,48 5,00 0,36 5,8% 9,6% 155,00 9,1%
Jedinstvo 2016-06 10,1 4.102,00 -0,1% 0,0% 2,6% 3,95 0,25 -1,31 0,07 0,67 -1,56 3,2% 6,3% 211,76 5,2%
Alfa Plam 2016-06 49,4 35.000,00 0,0% 0,0% 12,9% 9,24 0,92 6,74 0,77 5,96 -2,22 7,9% 10,0% 1.000,00 2,9%
Messer Teh. 2016-06 110,5 13.200,00 0,8% 1,5% 68,5% 3,44 0,83 7,17 1,04 2,59 -1,85 22,4% 24,0% 1.801,00 13,6%
Gosa Montaza 2016-06 4,8 2.302,00 0,0% -4,1% 45,2% 4,86 0,58 -27,64 -0,05 -0,53 -4,26 7,1% 11,9% 142,00 6,2%
Neochim 2016-09 92,8 68,40 -1,8% 14,8% 45,5% 10,61 2,36 11,77 0,87 6,58 0,78 12,9% 22,3% 0,80 1,2%
Monbat 2016-09 196,8 9,87 -0,3% 2,2% 34,8% 17,24 2,06 -31,33 1,94 11,98 2,40 6,8% 11,9% 0,28 2,8%
MS Hydraulic 2015-12 137,7 6,90 6,8% 3,8% 40,2% 31,52 4,25 15,75 2,94 15,17 -0,83 11,7% 13,5% 0,22 3,2%
Last availab. FS Last price
Change
M. Cap( EURm)
Fundamental indicators
Utility
Electrica 2016-09 1.046,2 13,62 0,1% 3,5% 19,5% 12,08 0,72 8,13 0,51 2,92 -3,51 4,7% 6,0% 0,86 6,3%
Transgaz 2016-09 852,2 326,00 -0,3% 10,9% 26,4% 8,29 1,07 7,03 1,76 3,95 -1,14 9,1% 12,8% 27,61 8,5%
Transelectrica 2016-06 531,4 32,65 0,0% 11,8% 19,8% 8,55 0,80 3,21 0,77 3,19 -0,22 5,5% 9,3% 2,65 8,1%
Janaf 2016-12 851,6 6.300,01 0,0% 18,9% 39,9% 21,81 1,69 13,75 7,92 10,52 -1,36 7,2% 7,8% 132,15 2,1%
Energy
INA 2016-09 4.293,3 3.200,46 0,0% 10,4% 23,1% -22,00 2,99 18,84 2,35 19,43 1,69 -7,2% -13,6% 0,00 0,0%
NIS 2016-09 983,2 747,00 -0,4% 0,9% 36,3% 10,73 0,63 3,68 1,20 6,36 2,87 3,1% 5,9% 24,69 3,3%
OMV Petrom 2016-09 3.521,5 0,28 -1,2% 7,3% 29,0% -19,76 0,60 3,53 1,00 3,13 0,05 -1,9% -3,0% 0,00 0,0%
Romgaz 2016-09 2.353,4 27,50 -0,2% 10,0% 13,6% 11,36 1,13 6,59 2,32 4,57 -1,37 9,1% 10,0% 2,70 9,8%
Nuclearelectrica 2016-09 403,0 6,02 0,0% 25,3% 8,7% 22,48 0,24 2,99 1,05 2,80 -0,14 0,9% 1,1% 0,33 5,5%
Pharma
Krka 2016-09 1.688,9 51,50 -1,0% -2,6% -15,0% 16,06 1,20 6,46 1,41 6,58 -0,23 5,8% 7,5% 2,65 5,1%
Galenika Fito. 2016-06 57,5 2.696,00 1,2% -0,9% 19,8% 7,47 1,04 17,45 1,36 4,98 -1,71 12,4% 14,0% 80,00 3,0%
Sopharma 2016-09 233,4 3,39 0,2% 13,6% 30,2% 13,93 0,99 2,75 0,74 6,23 1,83 3,9% 7,1% 0,07 2,1%
Construction
Ingra 2016-09 8,6 4,74 4,4% 54,9% 74,3% 0,79 0,71 -2,51 11,22 3,67 3,32 9,0% 89,6% 0,00 0,0%
Tehnika 2016-09 18,8 740,44 2,7% 60,8% 196,2% -37,44 0,45 -4,90 0,81 14,06 9,54 -0,4% -1,2% 0,00 0,0%
IGH 2016-09 29,2 354,26 -0,4% 96,4% 307,5% -3,29 14,66 17,01 4,36 -11,83 -7,87 -10,5% -446,0% 0,00 0,0%
Viadukt 2016-09 22,5 367,67 1,6% 19,8% 28,9% -40,59 0,48 6,62 0,43 4,39 2,07 -0,4% -1,2% 0,00 0,0%
Hidroelektra 2016-09 4,4 52,89 -3,8% 38,1% 140,4% -0,44 -0,28 -1,69 0,92 -1,71 -1,18 -27,7% n/a 0,00 0,0%
Dalekovod 2016-09 60,7 18,30 11,5% 34,8% 56,4% 27,35 1,31 7,79 0,94 10,37 6,00 1,0% 4,8% 0,00 0,0%
Energoprojekt 2016-06 111,6 1.265,00 1,2% -11,6% 35,9% 13,31 0,71 14,07 0,38 5,29 -0,51 2,4% 5,3% 20,00 1,6%
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 8
N/A
IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Tourism
Liburnia Riviera 2016-09 153,9 3.791,43 1,5% 3,3% -5,2% -218,90 1,46 11,85 4,54 9,88 0,42 -0,5% -0,7% 0,00 0,0%
Valamar Riviera 2016-09 718,3 42,49 3,2% 22,8% 83,8% 20,66 2,33 9,74 4,23 12,09 1,51 6,4% 11,3% 0,60 1,4%
HUP Zagreb 2016-09 164,9 2.845,00 -1,4% 1,7% 52,5% 16,44 1,54 15,71 4,45 10,54 1,05 6,4% 9,4% 15,00 0,5%
Maistra 2016-09 425,1 289,57 1,7% 14,5% 36,0% 22,29 2,00 9,67 4,10 11,07 2,26 5,2% 9,0% 0,00 0,0%
Turisthotel 2016-09 167,3 3.400,00 0,0% 15,3% 41,2% 15,93 3,29 12,57 5,28 11,36 -1,58 16,0% 20,6% 45,00 1,3%
Plava Laguna 2016-09 455,9 6.220,09 -2,0% 13,1% 46,4% 13,87 1,61 8,82 3,59 9,33 0,38 7,6% 11,6% 0,00 0,0%
Arenaturist 2016-09 165,7 566,07 -1,1% 20,8% 69,2% 42,82 1,53 10,69 4,04 12,74 3,33 1,9% 3,6% 0,00 0,0%
Albena 2016-09 132,8 60,80 0,3% -1,1% 30,7% 67,80 0,61 18,40 3,23 12,83 2,49 0,7% 0,9% 0,45 0,7%
Shipping
Atlantska Plov. 2016-09 61,6 328,91 4,7% 16,4% 225,4% -2,74 0,77 10,40 5,10 -19,65 -13,52 -9,2% -28,2% 0,00 0,0%
Jadroplov 2016-09 9,8 44,64 -7,7% 9,6% 218,9% -0,45 0,21 -1,00 9,76 -5,01 -4,25 -19,9% -47,8% 0,00 0,0%
Uljanik Plovidba 2016-09 12,9 166,32 3,7% 4,0% 44,0% -0,19 2,96 0,33 7,00 -3,39 -3,12 -40,2% -1593,2% 0,00 0,0%
TNG 2016-09 91,7 78,27 0,3% 4,4% 10,2% 15,64 1,10 6,28 5,69 11,55 5,86 3,1% 7,0% 3,95 5,0%
Telecommunications
HT 2016-09 1.938,1 176,43 0,3% 4,4% 25,1% 14,93 1,21 6,33 1,56 3,98 -1,36 6,9% 8,1% 6,00 3,4%
Telekom Slo. 2016-09 545,1 83,40 -0,1% 17,3% 13,6% 28,49 0,78 2,78 1,31 4,77 1,95 1,4% 2,7% 5,00 6,0%
Infrastructure
Luka Ploce 2016-09 31,8 560,29 -0,9% -1,9% -11,0% -11,92 0,58 -22,37 0,28 -3,68 13,67 -4,6% -4,9% 0,00 0,0%
Luka Rijeka 2016-09 84,8 46,87 -1,5% -2,2% 20,6% -414,09 0,92 -45,04 3,33 -328,97 101,41 -0,2% -0,2% 0,00 0,0%
Luka Koper 2016-09 386,5 27,61 -0,7% 10,4% 31,5% 10,00 1,19 5,90 2,58 6,77 1,66 8,1% 11,9% 1,13 4,1%
Aerodrom N.T. 2016-09 318,3 1.150,00 0,0% -0,5% 26,4% 11,05 1,45 11,38 4,67 8,07 -1,00 12,2% 13,1% 60,25 5,2%
Food
Viro 2016-09 74,8 401,94 -4,3% 4,9% 61,4% -54,45 1,35 -4,79 1,00 13,24 5,62 -0,8% -2,5% 0,00 0,0%
Jamnica 2016-09 386,1 130.090,19 -5,2% -6,5% 23,9% 8,60 1,51 6,44 0,72 5,15 -2,07 11,0% 17,5% 2.197,00 1,7%
Cakovecki Mlin. 2016-09 90,1 6.400,01 0,0% -0,9% 28,0% 12,57 1,11 6,43 0,49 6,48 -1,32 6,1% 8,8% 60,00 0,9%
Kras 2016-09 102,9 558,23 0,0% 3,5% 11,1% 38,17 1,25 12,35 0,91 11,20 1,93 1,7% 3,3% 0,00 0,0%
Ledo 2016-09 387,4 9.199,11 -1,0% -13,7% 5,0% 9,61 1,48 9,40 0,96 5,35 -1,69 10,9% 15,3% 425,01 4,6%
Belje 2016-09 23,1 20,95 -2,1% -10,2% -6,1% -3,82 0,09 1,24 0,89 9,52 8,33 -1,2% -2,3% 0,00 0,0%
Atlantic Grupa 2016-09 422,1 943,76 0,1% 6,7% 16,9% 12,80 1,52 14,32 0,94 9,17 3,31 4,6% 11,9% 13,50 1,4%
Sojaprotein 2016-06 78,2 650,00 -0,2% 5,2% -23,5% 23,79 0,81 113,94 0,90 11,52 4,28 1,6% 3,4% 0,00 0,0%
Retail
Tisak 2016-09 47,3 147,77 -5,2% -4,7% -13,1% 38,71 1,36 12,84 0,06 2,08 -2,03 0,9% 3,5% 0,00 0,0%
Medika 2016-09 71,3 17.608,00 0,0% 2,5% 39,7% 8,92 1,19 -15,21 0,30 10,36 3,50 2,7% 13,4% 0,00 0,0%
Mercator 2016-09 402,0 66,00 0,0% -2,9% -21,4% -156,79 0,63 7,92 0,50 12,05 8,27 -0,1% -0,4% 0,00 0,0%
Petrol 2016-09 692,4 331,90 0,6% 2,1% 28,9% 9,35 1,19 8,23 0,31 7,79 3,00 5,2% 12,7% 12,60 3,8%
Company
Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/SEV /
EBITDANet debt / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Last availab. FS Last price
Change
M. Cap( EURm)
Fundamental indicators
Selected Equity Fundamentals (Trailing Basis) & Performance
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 9 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Company
Day YTD 1Y P/E P/BV P/CFO EV/SEV /
EBITDANet debt / EBITDA ROA (%) ROE (%) Dividend Div. Yld
Last availab. FS Last price
Change
M. Cap( EURm)
Fundamental indicators
Diversified
Adris Grupa 2016-09 1.211,6 494,77 0,3% 8,4% 44,8% -10,49 0,89 -40,35 1,52 n/a n/a -4,3% -8,5% 15,00 3,0%
Podravka 2016-09 391,2 409,62 -0,9% 8,0% 31,6% 6,96 1,01 5,39 0,94 8,13 2,31 8,2% 14,6% 7,00 1,7%
Industrial Capital 2016-09 33,8 4,25 -5,6% -2,8% 30,6% 5,01 0,53 3,35 0,22 1,55 -1,00 9,1% 10,6% 0,00 0,0%
Industrial Hold. 2016-09 38,1 0,96 0,2% -5,6% 20,2% -6,48 0,26 4,55 1,98 18,25 10,77 -2,6% -4,0% 0,00 0,0%
Stara Planina 2016-09 71,4 6,65 1,8% 2,5% 84,0% 8,17 0,85 5,25 0,55 3,36 -1,30 8,7% 10,4% 0,21 3,1%
Holding Varna 2016-09 81,3 30,36 -2,1% -8,0% 26,5% 236,58 0,86 12,92 6,24 33,76 17,52 0,2% 0,4% 0,00 0,0%
Chimimport 2016-09 197,9 1,62 -0,6% -3,3% 24,8% 6,59 0,24 2,08 N/A N/A N/A 0,7% 3,7% 0,00 0,0%
Eurohold 2016-09 44,3 0,68 -1,6% 4,3% 0,4% -0,98 0,62 1,87 N/A N/A N/A -8,4% -63,9% 0,00 0,4%
Stock Exchange
BVB 2016-09 50,6 29,70 -0,3% 2,4% 15,1% 34,08 2,14 7,22 3,14 14,84 -19,05 3,0% 6,3% 0,87 2,9%
NAVPS Dividend Div. YldLast
availab. FS Last price Day YTD 1YM. Cap
Change
Disc. to NAV (3Y) ROA(%) ROE(%)
Fundamental indicators
Disc. to NAV (curr)
Disc. to NAV (1Y)P/E P/BV
Funds / REIT's
Fondul Propriet. 2016-09 2.176,7 0,89 -0,1% 12,5% 31,1% 22,38 0,87 1,20 -25,4% -21,2% -23,9% 3,9% 3,9% 0,05 5,6%
Bulgarian REIT 2016-09 22,9 2,23 1,1% -1,9% 34,8% 32,19 0,66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,8% 2,0% 0,00 0,0%
Adv. Terra. REIT 2016-09 91,8 2,11 -0,9% 1,0% -0,5% 23,14 0,80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3,3% 3,5% 0,10 4,7%
Dividend Div. Yld
Change
Last availab. FS Last price Day YTD 1Y Leverage
Loans vs. Deposits
M. Cap(EURm) P/E P/BV ROA(%) ROE(%)
NII / assets
NF&CI / assets
Fundamental indicators
Banks
ZABA 2016-09 2.685,8 62,52 0,9% 15,8% 64,8% 12,08 1,09 6,89 91,2% 2,7% 1,0% 1,3% 9,0% 0,00 0,0%
PBZ 2016-09 2.201,8 860,49 0,7% 11,9% 53,7% 10,55 1,16 5,72 85,1% 3,2% 1,6% 1,9% 11,0% 10,16 1,2%
AIK Banka 2016-06 147,6 1.850,00 0,0% 5,7% 2,8% 3,89 0,33 3,21 78,1% 4,0% 0,5% 2,6% 8,5% 0,00 0,0%
Komercijalna B. 2016-06 233,4 1.772,00 3,0% 2,0% 21,0% -2,77 0,48 7,18 56,5% 3,3% 1,2% -2,4% -17,3% 63,00 3,6%
Banca Transil. 2016-09 2.036,0 2,52 -0,6% 5,5% 32,3% 10,79 1,68 8,82 71,0% 4,6% 0,0% 1,8% 15,6% 0,39 15,5%
BRD 2016-09 1.813,5 11,72 -0,3% -1,3% 19,6% 11,47 1,22 7,48 76,5% 3,1% 1,6% 1,4% 10,6% 0,32 2,7%
CCB 2016-09 87,9 1,52 -4,6% -0,7% 50,6% 4,48 0,44 13,07 55,3% 2,3% 0,9% 0,8% 9,9% 0,00 0,0%
FIB 2016-09 215,5 3,83 -1,8% 14,4% 85,9% 5,50 0,51 10,71 67,3% 3,6% 1,0% 0,9% 9,3% 0,00 0,0%
Dividend Div. YldP/ELast
availab. FS Last price Day YTD 1YM. Cap(EURm)
Net margin ROA(%) ROE(%)P/BV P/GWP Leverage
Combined Ratio
Insurance
Sava Re 2016-09 275,5 16,00 -0,1% 21,0% 35,6% 8,3 0,9 0,6 5,7 91,5% 6,1% 2,0% 11,1% 0,80 5,0%
Triglav 2016-09 591,6 26,02 -0,7% 12,2% 12,5% 9,6 0,8 0,6 4,9 94,3% 5,5% 1,7% 8,4% 2,50 9,6%
CO 2016-09 345,8 5.999,00 0,0% 8,1% -9,1% 15,9 1,0 0,9 4,1 100,2% 4,9% 1,5% 6,4% 0,00 0,0%
Common Common
HOLD 604,00
Preferred Preferred
BUY 512,00
Fondul
Proprietatea
23 March
2016
STRONG
BUY0,99 0,89 10,7%
-managed by Franklin Templeton, a top class
fund management company
-high exposure to energy sector
-significant discount to NAV
-about 60% of the fund's NAV is made by
unlisted companies
-possible privatizations of portfolio
companies
Đivo Pulitika
AD Plastik
Group150,62 -100,0%
- stable dividend payment
- Edison projekt and recovery in Europe
- presence in Russia
89,32
- consolidation of suppliers in the
automotive industry
- exposure to cyclic automotive sector
14 July
2015
BUY
- attractive dividend yield
- Standard & Poor’s "A-" rating
with stable outlook
Triglav
Group
3 May
2016
UNDER
REVIEW
HOLD 28,58
NIS
Group
9 September
2015747,00 -27,9%
- attractive valuation in relation to peers
- high domestic market share
- potential for development outside Serbia
- lack of transparency
- macroeconomic pressures
- dependence on oil prices
and refining margins
7,1%
- stable structure of debt
- risk of permanent competitive
pressure on prices
Đivo Pulitika
Group
Telekom
Slovenije
1 October
201583,40
Đivo PulitikaBUY 954,34
- restructuring of operations in progress
- risk of a large number of litigations
- leading regional insurer
- potential for further expansion
in Ex-Yu countries
- one of the largest hospitality groups
- multi-destination portfolio in key Adriatic
regions, Istria and Dubrovnik
- quality brand/product portfolio
- strong position on Ex-Yu markets
- strategic alliance with Panasonic
Đivo Pulitika
Đivo Pulitika
Đivo Pulitika
6,38 -23,2%
26,02 9,8%
- lack of economies of scale
- dependence on input prices as well as
currency translation differences
- potential expansion of the
accommodation portfolio via M&A
- dependence on tourism development
Đivo Pulitika
STRONG
BUY4,90
23 February
2016331,90 5,5% Đivo Pulitika
Krka Group7 January
201551,50 -100,0%
- exposure to new markets (Russia)
- dual listing in Warsaw
- ownership restructuring
- strong retail player
- strong fundamentals
- continuing sales growth
despite crisis effects
- stable cash flow
- high level of debt
STRONG
BUY350,06
UNDER
REVIEW
Recommend-
ationTarget price Last price Difference
-8,8%
-22,5%
11 July
2016943,76 1,1%
11 May
2015SELL 1017,10 1.312,37
Investment Thesis
- large share of foreign sales
- substantial cost-cutting potential
- divesting as a profitability
growth opportunity
- moderate level of debt
- strong cash position
- large investments in tourism portfolio
expected to increase RevPAR and returns
- further restructuring and economic
recovery expected to propel the insurance
business
Analyst
Đivo Pulitika
Končar
Group804,04 -2,1%
03 August
2015BUY 786,87
Ericsson
Nikola Tesla
CompanyLast
research
Adris Group20 December
2016
590
Đivo Pulitika
Podravka
Group
31 July
2015
Hrvatski
Telekom176,43
409,62
29 January
2016
Đivo Pulitika
494,77 3,5%
-100,0% Đivo Pulitika
2,3%
- weak revenue growth potential
- profitability above peer
group's average
- dividend player
- low level of debtBUY 160,95
UNDER
REVIEW
Valamar
Riviera
21 September
201542,49 -100,0%
SELL 538,68
- historically inconsistent strategy related to
often changes in management
- future capacities rely on strong CAPEX and
Slovenia's investments in railway
UNDER
REVIEW
Đivo Pulitika
- high return on equity
- largest dividend yield
on Croatian market
- foreign markets as an opportunity
- high dependence on government deals
- best in the class standards of corporate
governance
- continuing profitability improvements
- strong presence in the region
- diversified product portfolio and vertically
integrated business mode
- growing presence in Eastern
European markets
- dependence on telco investments
- majority stake owned by
the government
- profit margin presssure
Đivo Pulitika
Atlantic
Grupa
Đivo Pulitika
Petrol Group
Luka Koper13 October
2015BUY 25,66 27,61 -7,1%
- attractive valuation compared to peer port
operators
- recovery of regional economies and their
trade with the rest of the world
Đivo Pulitika
Đivo Pulitika
Tankerska
Next
Generation
24 August
2016HOLD 65,00 78,27 -17,0%
- dislocation of refineries
- experienced fleet manager
- attractive cost structure compared to peers
- possible asset play
- stable earnings due to time charters
- complete exposure to a single market
segment
Gorenje
Group
17 November
2015
Sava Re
Group
30 November
2015
STRONG
BUY17,22 16,00 7,6%
-successful integration of Zavarovalnica
Maribor
-growth opportunities in the regional
insurance markets
-possible interest rate hikes
-absence of major loss events pushes up
results for now
Đivo Pulitika
Overview of Investment Recommendations
InterCapital Research Coverage Universe
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 10 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
About us
InterCapital Group
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 11
InterCapital is an independent investment company established in 2001, and is one of the leading companies fortrading of financial instruments, asset management and investment banking services in the Republic of Croatia.Our mission is to further advance the ongoing development of our domestic capital markets through the introduction and implementation of innovative financialproducts, know-how and sophisticated international standards in financial mediation services. In doing so, we aim to provide superior returns to our diverse customerbase. Experience, knowledge, dedication, reputation and ethical conduct are at the heart of our business. These characteristics are uncompromisingly embedded in eachof our employees, ultimately guaranteeing professional quality and dedication in our approach to clients, our product portfolio and overall mission achievement.The InterCapital Group is headquartered in Zagreb and employs more than 40 individuals.
Our services:
BROKERAGE SERVICES (tel: + 385 1 48 25 896, mail: brokeri@intercapital.hr)We specialize in offering of full service brokerage services to foreign and domestic institutional clients & HNWI with expert knowledge in trading with financialinstruments who desire to trade in significant volumes. Becoming our client enables you to trade securities listed on domestic stock exchanges, as well as securities andfinancial derivatives traded in global markets. Our online trading platform, IC.trader, enables fast and direct access to domestic and international markets and offers realtime monitoring and trading with financial instruments on both the Zagreb Stock Exchange and the majority of stock exchanges worldwide.
FIXED INCOME DEALING (tel: + 385 1 48 25 854, mail: fi@intercapital.hr)InterCapital Securities is the top fixed income trader according to bond trading volume on Zagreb Stock Exchange fourteen years in a row. Services offered by thecompany include market making on Croatian government bonds, as well as trading Croatian, Serbian, Slovenian, Romanian and Bulgarian fixed income instruments. Ourspecialties also encompass research services covering MM and FI markets (both domestic and international), providing expert opinions and developing trading ideas inclose cooperation with our clients.
ASSET MANAGEMENT (tel: + 385 1 48 25 868, mail: icam@intercapital.hr)Extensive investment experience in the regional and global financial markets has enabled us to develop most advanced tailor-made asset management solutions. Ourreputable market position has been built on the foundation of long-term and personal relationships with every single client. Whether we are dealing with wealthyindividuals, corporations or institutional investors, our approach to managing their assets is rooted in thorough understanding of their unique needs and constraints. Foreach one of those clients we offer a broad range of products, including both UCITS and alternative funds as well as discretionary asset management.
INVESTMENT BANKING (tel: + 385 1 48 25 866, mail: ib@intercapital.hr)Investment Banking helps companies improve their competitiveness by defining and implementing optimal financial strategies, which is a prerequisite for survival intoday’s dynamic business environment. As a highly specialized segment of the financial services industry, investment banking requires expertise of local financialmarkets, knowledge of specific needs facing companies and capabilities in structuring and executing optimal solution(s) with the end goal of creating new value for theclient. Our investment banking activities are divided into two streams:
financing through the capital markets (debt issues (commercial papers & bonds) and equity issues (public and private equity offerings), as well as official marketlistings
financial advisory services (mergers and acquisitions, financial analysis and company valuations, due diligence services, business restructurings and spin-offs,MBO and ESOP programs)
INSURANCE BROKERAGE (tel: + 385 1 54 96 166, mail: rizik@intercapital.hr)InterCapital Risk is specialized in obtaining advanced insurance and reinsurance solutions not only on domestic insurance market but also on established markets likeLloyd’s of London, Bermuda etc. Managing operational risks and insurance brokerage is our core business, while courtesy, innovation and professionalism are the driversof our business philosophy. Although InterCapital Risk is a new insurance brokerage and risk management operation on the market, its employees are proven specialistsin this business with considerable success records.
CUSTODY SERVICE (tel: + 385 1 48 25 844/845, mail: custody@intercapital.hr)With the continued monitoring of our clients’ needs and investing in the development of new and increasing the quality of existing services, we have developed asecurities custody service. InterCapital offering its clients trading on the domestic, as well as on foreign stock exchanges, enables to simultaneously perform followingservices:
payment and settlement of securities in the world’s leading markets; storage and safekeeping of securities in various global depository; managing investment positions with maximum professionalism and discretion; continuous reporting to clients; collection of inflows generated from interests, dividends and other income relating to assets in the custody account and monitoring of other corporate actions.
These services can be achieved with the minimal additional time and administration, as well as maximum flexibility and support ofour professional employees. Software support is achieved through the incorporation of custodial services through IC.trader trading platform.
iCAPITAL (tel: + 385 1 48 25 897, mail: icapital@intercapital.hr)iCapital.hr has been designed and implemented as an investment and educational portal, providing information needed when making investment decisions, all available inone place. On iCapital.hr you can track market trends of domestic and foreign stocks, using technical and fundamental analysis, monitor daily changes in the top 10shareholders of the Zagreb Stock Exchange, vote in Sentiment surveys, monitor the performance of own portfolios, read daily market reviews and comments, participatein discussions through the Forum, compare Croatian investment funds, as well as play and inform yourself. Visit us on www.icapital.hr - the leading Croatian Communityof traders and investors.
IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Notice to Investors and Explanation of Investment Recommendations
Disclaimer
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
„IC Market Espresso“ is a Recommendation that proposes investment strategy in terms of one or more financial instruments or the Issuer offinancial instruments, including opinions about current or future value and price of these instruments. Market Espresso is published every workday.The first issue was published on 2 January 2008, while the technical analysis of Croatian equities and index was introduced on 1 September 2008.Information in this report is intended for informative purposes only and does not represent the solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments orparticipate in any particular trading strategy.
Market Espresso is based on publicly available information (Stock Exchanges, Bloomberg, financial reports of Issuers, companies' management,business and other websites). Although we believe our information and price quotes to be reasonably reliable, we do no guarantee their accuracy orcompleteness. In addition, the price or value of financial instruments described in this report may fluctuate and realize gains or losses. InterCapitalSecurities Ltd. does not assume responsibility for any damage caused by the use of published information and projections contained in this reportOpinions in this report constitute the current judgement of the author/s as of date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommendations in IC Market Espresso are based on fundamental analysis and instruments and rules of technical analysis. Technical analysis is avaluation method of financial instruments made by analysing statistically generated market activities such as historical prices and trading volumes.Technical analysis usually uses various types of graphical displays, on the basis of which special techniques try to predict future trends. The maintask of technical analysis is to attempt to identify historical price movements and accordingly identify possible future trends.
Fundamental analysis is a financial analysis of industries and companies based on factors such as sales, assets, profit, products or services,markets and management. In conducting fundamental analysis, InterCapital Securities Ltd. uses various methods to determine a value of the Issuer.Among the rest, analysis of comparable companies, discounted cash flow and other methods are being used. Although InterCapital Securities Ltd.uses models generally accepted in the financial industry and theory, the results of these models depend on plans and information obtained from theIssuer as well as subjective opinions of analysts.
The authors of technical and fundamental analyses in IC Market Espresso are Đivo Pulitika, Margareta Maresić and Marcel Dimač. They areemployees of InterCapital Securities Ltd. registered in Zagreb, Masarykova 1. InterCapital Securities Ltd. is supervised by Croatian Financial ServicesSupervisory Agency (HANFA).
Fundamental rating values of an Issuer are given according to the following scale:
•Strong buy - equities with expected absolute revenue of more than 20% in the monitored time period•Buy - equities with expected absolute return of 10%-20% in the monitored time period•Hold - equities with expected absolute return of -10% to 10% in the monitored time period•Sell - equities with expected absolute return below -10% in the monitored time period•Under review - an issuer might be placed Under Review due to new information which is not included in the analysis.
Up to August 14, 2014 the Hold recommendation was used for equities with an expected return of 0% to 10%, while the Sell recommendation wasused for equities with an expected negative absolute return. Criteria for other recommendation remained unchanged.
InterCapital Securities Ltd. is in possession of the following equities:
Analysts engaged in creation of IC Market Espresso and/or related persons are not in possession of significant financial interests in one or morefinancial instruments which are subject to recommendation or significant conflicts of interest in relation to any of the issuers in accordance withArticle 475 of the Capital Market Act.
The company InterCapital Securities Ltd. acts as a market maker for ADPLRA ZA, PODRRA ZA, HTRA ZA, KOEIRA ZA, TPNGRA ZA, ATGRRA ZA andRIVPRA ZA.
Issuer recommendations stated in IC Daily - Market Espresso are not declared to the Issuer before they are published. In the last 12 months periodInterCapital Securities Ltd. served as a listing agent for the TPNGRA ZA shares on the Official market of the Zagreb Stock Exchange. Inc.
Any investments indicated in the report constitute risk, are not readily available in all jurisdictions, can be illiquid and may not be suitable for allinvestors. Value or income realized on any one investment mentioned in the report may vary. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currencyother than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative offuture results. Investors must make their own informed investment decisions without depending on this Recommendation. Only investors withsufficient knowledge and expertise in financial dealings who are able to evaluate risk and return may consider investing in any form of securities ormarkets indicated herein.
Protection of copyright and data base contained in this Recommendation is of great importance. The report may not be reproduced, distributed orpublished by any person for any purpose without prior consent given by InterCapital Securities Ltd. Please cite source when quoting. All rights arereserved.
Number Share
Companies which InterCapital Securities
Ltd. provided investment banking service
within last 12 months
Strong Buy 4 21.1% -
Buy 6 31.6% ATGR-R-A
Hold 3 15.8% -
Sell 2 10.5% -
Under Review 4 21.1% ADPL-R-A
4Q 2016 (1 October - 31 December 2016)