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transcript
Interlinkages between climate change and
trade in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Andrea ZimmermannTrade and Markets Division, FAO
ATEN Annual MeetingChisinau, 5-6 June 2019
Interlinkages between Climate Change and Trade in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
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The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO)
• A flagship publication of the Food and Agriculture Organization
• Analyse the impacts of climate change on agricultural trade
• Assess the role of agricultural trade in ensuring food security in the context of climate change
• Examine the policy space – Identify how to strengthen the mutual supportive role of policies that combat climate change and the multilateral trade rules
3
Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Trade
• Climate change may lead to significant trade disruptions in the short term through extreme events
• Slow onset changes in trade patterns by altering the comparative advantages of countries
• Quantative model-based simulation
Source: IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report (2014)
Climate model
Crop model
Economic model
4
Changes in Agricultural Production in 2050
Source: FAO(2018)
5
Changes in Trade Flows
Increase in exports of agricultural products in 2050 (USD billion)
Source: FAO(2018)
6
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
Central Asia Eastern Europe
Perc
ent
Central Asia & Eastern Europe
Agri-food production Agri-food net exports0
10
20
30
40
Agri-food production Agri-food net exports
Perc
ent
Russian Federation & Caucasus
Changes in agricultural production and net exports in 2050: Climate change scenario relative to the reference scenario
7
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Increases in net exports of agricultural products in 2050: Climate change relative to the reference scenario (in million USD, 2011 constant prices)
Latin America & Caribbean
Near East & North
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Europe South & Southeast
Asia
China & East Asia
… World
Central Asia
8 58 7 -9 42 38 … 115
Eastern Europe
6 -17 81 -93 307 2 … 249
Russian Federation & Caucasus
119 1316 538 99 290 37 … 2465
8
Impact of Climate Change on Consumers
Changes in food prices and food purchasing power in 2050: Climate change scenario relative to the reference scenario
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
Central Asia Eastern Europe Russian Federation andthe Caucasus
Perc
ent
Food consumer prices Food purchasing power
Trade and Climate Change Related Rules
9
Uneven impact of climate change increases the role of trade in adaptation and in contributing to food security
Well-functioning trading system
Domestic Policies & Border Measures
WTO Agreements vs Paris Agreement
“non-discrimination” vs “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”
10
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
CountryMarket mechanism
Mitigation in agriculture
Adaptation in agriculture
International support
Armenia Carbon tax Yes Yes Yes
Azerbaijan Yes Yes
Belarus Yes
Georgia Yes Yes Yes
Kazakhstan Yes Yes
Moldova Yes Yes
Tajikistan Yes Yes Yes
Turkmenistan Yes Yes Yes
Ukraine Emission trading Yes
Uzbekistan Yes Yes
• Keep average temperature increase well below 2°C
• Domestic mitigation and adaptation plans
Policy
categoryPotential climate policy Related WTO positions and disciplines
Taxes and
emission
trading
schemes
Aim: Internalize environmental costs of GHG
emissions
Examples: Carbon taxes, emission trading
schemes
Disparities in domestic levels of carbon pricing
and risk of ‘carbon leakage’
Border measures to counterbalance these
disparities may be implemented (e.g. carbon
tariffs)
Legality of carbon tariffs has not been
tested in a WTO dispute settlement
GATT, Article XX; Agreement on
Agriculture (AoA) - Market access
Subsidies
Aim: Promote the development and use of
climate-friendly goods and technologies
Examples: Support for biomass production as a
measure to mitigate climate change
Agreement on Subsidies and
Countervailing Measures (SCM); AoA -
Domestic support
Regulations
and
standards
Aims: Promote the use of climate-friendly goods
and technologies, promote food safety
Examples: Carbon labelling initiatives, regulations
concerning food safety
Problem if these discriminate against imports
WTO encourages the use of
international standards to reduce the
likelihood of dispute settlements
Technical Barriers to Trade agreement
(TBT); Sanitary and Phytosanitary
measures (SPS) agreement
Support to
developing
countries
Assistance for climate change
mitigation/adaptation to developing countries is
explicitly provided for in the Paris Agreement
Examples: Support for development of drought
resistant crops, more efficient irrigation systems
Special and Differential Treatment
(SDT) for developing countries; SDT in
the AoA provides for special treatment
of domestic support
Summary
Eastern Europe and Central Asia could increase their exports
Consumers will be hurt through rising food prices
Measures in NDCs are not yet clearly specified
In principle there is no fundamental conflict between climate change policiesand multilateral trading rules
Some of the climate policies could interact with WTO legislation
More research will be needed to support policymakers in the preparation of suitable and location-specific climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies
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http://www.fao.org/publications/soco/en/
15
Dynamics and Trends in Agricultural Trade
16
Dynamics and Trends in Agricultural Trade
17
Changes in Agricultural Net Trade in 2050
Source: FAO (2018)