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IPCC Emissions Scenarios IPCC Emissions Scenarios
P.R. Shukla
Fossil and Industrial COFossil and Industrial CO22 - World - World
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Year
CO
2 (G
tC)
A1
A2
B1
B2
IS92a
WRE550
S550
Global Cumulative Emissions (1990-2100)Global Cumulative Emissions (1990-2100)
1434
1681
965
1195
1427
928
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
GtC
A1 A2 B1 B2 IS92a WRE550Scenarios
Share in Cumulative (1990 - 2100) Share in Cumulative (1990 - 2100) Global Carbon EmissionsGlobal Carbon Emissions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
A1 A2 B1 B2Scenarios
Shar
e
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Annex 2
Cumulative Emission as % of WRE550Cumulative Emission as % of WRE550
154
181
104
129
37
5649
69
0
50
100
150
200
A1 A2 B1 B2
Year
(%)
% of WRE550
Annex 1 as % of WRE550
Non-Annex 1 Emissions Non-Annex 1 Emissions A1 Scenario A2 Scenario
Non-Annex 1 Emissions
WRE550 - Annex 1 Emissions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
B1 Scenario B2 Scenario
Non-Annex 1 Emissions Non-Annex 1 Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
GtC
Non-Annex 1 Emissions
WRE550 - Annex 1 Emissions
Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita EmissionsA1 - Scenario A2 - Scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita EmissionsB2 ScenarioB1 Scenario
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Ton
of C
arbo
n/Pe
rson
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
World GDPWorld GDP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Trill
ion
US$
90
A1
A2
B1
B2
Per Capita GDPPer Capita GDP
A1 - Scenario A2 - Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tho
usan
d U
S$90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tho
usan
d U
S$90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Per Capita GDPPer Capita GDP
B2 ScenarioB1 Scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tho
usan
d U
S$90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Tho
usan
d U
S$90
World
Annex 2
Annex 1 excl.Annex 2
Non-Annex 1(Asia)
Non-Annex 1(Rest)
Sulfur Emissions - WorldSulfur Emissions - World
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
ons
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - OECD90Sulfur Emissions - OECD90
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year
Em
issi
ons
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - REFSulfur Emissions - REF
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
ons
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - AsiaSulfur Emissions - Asia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
ons
A1 A2 B1 B2
Sulfur Emissions - ALMSulfur Emissions - ALM
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Em
issi
ons
A1 A2 B1 B2
Mitigation Cost and Ancillary Mitigation Cost and Ancillary BenefitsBenefits
Analysis for IndiaAnalysis for India
India: Carbon Mitigation India: Carbon Mitigation (1995-2035)
6 billion tons of mitigation below $25/ ton of carbon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Carbon Mitigation (billion ton)
Mar
gina
l C
ost (
$/To
n of
Car
bon)
Long Run Marginal Cost of Electricity
0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Rs.
per
kw
h
Reference 1 BT (5%) 2 BT (10%)3 BT (15%) 4 BT (20%) 5 BT (25%)
How Mitigation affects Electricity Price?How Mitigation affects Electricity Price?
How Mitigation affects Production Cost?How Mitigation affects Production Cost?
20152035
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cos
t of A
lum
inum
Pro
duct
ion
ALUMINUM
20152035
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cos
t of S
teel
Pro
duct
ion
STEEL
1 BT (5%) 3 BT (15%) 5 BT (25%)
Cost and Ancillary Benefits of Carbon MitigationCost and Ancillary Benefits of Carbon MitigationCase of IndiaCase of India
Marginal Cost and Ancillary Benefits
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Carbon Mitigation (BTtC)
Bill
ion
$
Ancillary Benefits Carbon Mitigation Cost Net Cost
Total Cost and Ancillary Benefits
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Carbon Mitigation (BTtC)
$/To
n of
Car
bon
MC $/Ton of Carbon Mar. Ben $/Ton of Carbon