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SPEC Barometer: Election and Political IssuesPress Release: General Media (9th Release of March-April Survey)

Prepared by: Ipsos

Release date: 30th May 2015

Election Issues

Knowledge of next election date

Preference for next election date

Awareness of any voter registration

ICC Issues

Outcome preferences regarding Ruto-Sang case

Views on proposed Kenya withdrawal from ICC

Views on proposed establishment of African Human Rights Court

Political Issues: Deaths of Prominent People

Awareness of deaths of prominent people

Preference for revelation of cause of death

Political Issues: Political Party/Coalition Alignment

Political Issues: Raila Odinga’s Public Future

Preference among three options2

Contents

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Methodology

Methodology

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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015

Sample Size 1,964

Sampling methodologyRandom, Multi-stage stratified using PPS(proportionate to population size)

Universe

Data collectionmethodology

Sampling error

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Poll funding Ipsos Limited

Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above livingin Urban and Rural areas

+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Sample Structure Statistics

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RegionSample Frame statistics

(April 2015)*Weighted data

%Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +)%

Central 257 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25

Western 200 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

Quality Control Measures

For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at theirhouseholds to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: anindependent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of therespondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the saidrespondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes andlongitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of theinterviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensureconformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highestpossible integrity of obtained results/data

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Respondents’

Demographic Profile:

28%

2%

30%

8%

11%

9%

10%

1%

1%

9%

22%

28%

23%

4%

4%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Refused To Answer/None

No religion

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/…

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

Don’t Know

Refused To Answer

Demographic Profile

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

100%

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

Kenyans

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Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Nationality

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

4%

14%

19%

14%

26%

8%

7%

3%

3%

1%

42%

33%

11%

4%

1%

1%

0%

2%

7%

No formal education

Some primary education

Primary education completed

Some secondary education

Secondary education completed

Some middle level college (not…

Completed mid-level college (Not…

Some University education

University education completed

Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – 75,000

75,001 – 100,000

100,001 and above

Has No income

RTA/DK

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Level of Education

Monthly Household Income (ALLmembers of the Household)

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

41%

18%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

Self-Employed

Unemployed

Employed in the private sector

Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)

Casual labour

Employed in the public sector

Student

Retired

Other

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Employment Status

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Election Issues

% Who Know the Date of the Next Election (August, 2017):by Total, Setting, Gender

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78%80%

76%

81%

74%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008)

% Who Know Date of the Next Election (August, 2017): by Region

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89%84%

80% 79%

73%70% 70%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Central(n=257)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Eastern(n=293)

Nyanza(n=257)

Nairobi(n=206)

Coast(n=173)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Western(n=200)

% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election fromAugust to December, 2017: by Total, Setting, Gender and MainPolitical Party/Coalition

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64% 65% 64% 66%63%

66% 67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Urban (n=729) Rural(n=1,235)

Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)

CORDSupporters

(n=623)

JubileeSupporters

(867)

% Who Support Changing the Date of the Next Election fromAugust to December, 2017: by Region

15

80%

71%68%

64%

58% 56%53%

47%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nyanza(n=257)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Central(n=257)

Nairobi(n=206)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Western(n=200)

Eastern(n=293)

Coast(n=173)

% Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since LastElection: by Total, Setting, Gender, Main Political Party/Coalition

16

20%22%

18%

22%

17%

21% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total(n=1,964)

Urban(n=729)

Rural(n=1,235)

Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)

CORDSupporters

(n=623)

JubileeSupporters

(n=867)

% Aware of Any Voter Registration in Their Locality Since LastElection: by Region

17

37%

27% 27%

20%17% 17%

15%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

NorthEastern(n=94)

Central(n=257)

Coast(n=173)

Nairobi(n=206)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Nyanza(n=257)

Eastern(n=293)

Western(n=200)

“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC tomanage the next elections?”: by Total, Setting, Gender, MainPolitical Party/Coalition

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42%

35%

46%43% 42%

21%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Urban (n=729) Rural(n=1,235)

Male (n=956) Female(n=1,008)

CORDSupporters

(n=623)

JubileeSupporters

(n=867)

% saying “YES”

“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC tomanage the next elections?”: by Region

19

60%56%

53%48%

39%

28% 26%22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Central(n=257)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Coast(n=173)

Eastern(n=293)

Nairobi(n=206)

Western(n=200)

Nyanza(n=257)

% saying “YES”

Kenyan ICC Casesand other ICC Issues

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“What would you like to happen to the Ruto and Sang’ case?”

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48%

33%

8%

5%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

It should be terminated/dropped completely

It should continue at the ICC as it is now

It should continue at the ICC but without thepresence of the accused

Not sure

It should be deferred for a year

There should be a fair trial

It should be referred to Kenyan courts

RTA

1) 88% of Kenyans correctlymentioned William Ruto ascurrently being tried at the ICC

2) 76% of Kenyans correctlymentioned Joshua rap Sang’Ruto as currently being tried atthe ICC

Base: Those aware of either William Ruto, Joshua arap Sang’ orboth as facing trial at the ICC (n=1,735)

“Whatever your view about this case….?”

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26% 27%24%

26%

33% 33%

16%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

How likely do you think it is that the Rutocase will end in his conviction?

How likely do you think it is that there willbe any violence if Ruto is convicted?

Certainly will Possibly will Certainly NOT Not sure

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“Do you support the proposal for Kenya to withdraw from theICC?”

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50%

76%

69%

59%

50%

44%41%

32%

24%

50%

24%

31%

41%

50%

56%59%

68%

76%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Central(n=257)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Eastern(n=293)

Nairobi(n=206)

Western(n=200)

Nyanza(n=257)

Coast(n=173)

YES NO

“Do you support/oppose the proposal by the African Union toestablish an African Human rights court as a substitute for theICC?”

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54%

32%

48%

43%

49%53%

62% 63%

79%

40%

62%

50%48%

45%40%

34%30%

17%

6% 6%3%

9%6% 7% 5% 7%

4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Nyanza(n=257)

Nairobi(n=206)

Western(n=200)

Coast(n=173)

Eastern(n=293)

Rift Valley(n=484)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Central(n=257)

Support Oppose Not sure

25

Political Issues:

Deaths of ProminentPeople

“Which prominent people have died or been killed in recent months thatyou know of?” (MULTIPLE RESPONSE)

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55%

43%

40%

6%

4%

1%

1%

17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Hon. Muchai

Otieno Kajwang’

Fidel Odinga

Mutula Kilonzo

George Saitoti

Orwa Ojode

Meshack Yebei

Can't remember/None/Don't Know

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“Do you think the cause of death in such cases should be revealedto the public?” (By Total)

YES, 72%

NO, 17% Not Sure, 10%

27Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Political Issues:

Political Party/

Coalition Alignment

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”(By Coalitions Showing Affiliated Parties)

29

18%

11%9%

4%1%

20%

6% 5%1% 1% 1% 1%

4%

16%

Jubilee affiliated parties =43% CORD affiliatedparties=32%

Others=3%

Shy=20%

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Political Issues:

Raila’s Political Future

“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closestto your view?” (By Total, CORD vs. Jubilee Supporters)

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33%

8%

53%

27%24%

29%34%

67%

14%

5%1% 3%

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=624) Jubilee Supporters (n=871)

He should retire from politics completely

He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election

He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if hewantsNot Sure/NR

“Which of the following regarding Raila Odinga's future is closestto your view?” (Trend Analysis)

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36%39%

35%

40%37%

42%

33%

28% 25% 24%21%

26%25%

27%

32%32%

36%

35% 34%

24%

34%

4% 4%6%

4% 4%8%

5%

June 2013(n=2,000)

November 2013(n=2,060)

February 2014(n=2,031)

May 2014(n=2,059)

September2014 (n=2,021)

November 2014(n=2,005)

April (n=1,964)

He should retire from politics completely

He should continue to lead/work with his political party but should not contest the next election

He should remain active in his party and even contest the presidency in the next election if hewantsNot Sure/No Response

Perceived Confidence in the IEBC to Manage the Next GeneralElection by 3 Preferences Regarding Raila’s Future

56%

45%

27%

44%

55%

73%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Raila should retire from politicscompletely (N=657)

Raila should continue tolead/work with his political

party but not contest any seatin the future (N=540)

Raila should remain active inhis party and even contest thepresidency again in 2017 if he

wants to (N=660)

YES NO

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“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in theIEBC to manage the next general election?”

For further information contact:Dr Tom WolfSocial Political Consultanttpwolf1944@gmail.com

Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion Pollsvictor.rateng@ipsos.com

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

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