Post on 12-Jul-2015
transcript
Economic growth on a finite
planet – status quo and
perspectivesIrmi Seidl
Swiss Research Institute WSL
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Content
1. Earth – a materially closed system
2. Anthropocene: transgression of planetary boundaries
3. Exponential growth in human impacts
4. Footprint - measurement of human impact
5. The energy question
6. Major environmental objectives
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1. Earth – a materially closed system
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Radiation of sun Heat
Stock of energy and materials is limited
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From an empty to a full world
Herman Daly
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2. Anthropocene
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2. Anthropocene
Human activities
- have significant global impact on the Earth's ecosystems
- influence land use, ecosystems, biodiversity, and atmosphere
- impact irreversibly
- constitute a new geological epoch
1873 first evocation of 'anthropozoic era‘ by Italian geologist
Antonio Stoppani
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3. Exponential growth in human impacts
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UNEP 2011, following Krausmann et al. 2009
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Limits to growth – scenarios verified?
Tu
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4. Footprint - Measurements of human impacts
in EEA countries
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R² = 0.6408
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
GP
D p
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ad [
US
$]
Ecological Footprint [Gha]
Correlation GDP/head and ecological footprint/head
Asien
Afrika
Europa
Südamerika/Karibik
Nordamerika
Ozeanien
Welt
1.8 Gha (Total Biocapacity/cap)
Data: Ecological Footprint (www.footprintnetwork.org), World Bank; Data for 2010 (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD)
Ita
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5. The energy question
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Mu
rphy
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Law of Entropy
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Prices in last century
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Resource Revolution. Tracking global commodity markets, Sept. 13, S. 6
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6. Major environmental objectives
Rise in global temperature max 2-2.4 C
Reduce European CO2-emission by 85-95% by 2050
Sustainable resource use
Reduce European resource consumption by 80-90% by 2050
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Challenge and task: Produce and consume for a
future within limits
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