Post on 20-Jan-2016
transcript
It’s Heating Up! -Visualizing the Science of Climate Change
Brian Martin and Peter Mahaffy
The King’s University College and
The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science
What do all of these images have in
common?
In today’s talk…
• Some of the underlying evidence for global climate change
• The science of global climate change
• Global climate change and social and political policy
• Teaching tools to help bring this to students
“View tomorrow as a day that belongs to all
of us, or it will not belong to anyone…”
UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development
UN Decade for Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014)
• Improve the quality of life for this and future generations, in a way that respects the planet we live on.
• To do this we must learn constantly.• Challenge individuals, institutions and
societies to view tomorrow as a day that belongs to all of us, or it will not belong to anyone.
Global Climate Change
• The atmosphere of our planet
• What is climate & is it changing?
• Causes of change
• Short and long term effects
• How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?
Jasper, Alberta
Our existence depends on a fragile and thin layer of Nitrogen and Oxygen - atmosphere
Different Regions of Earth’s Atmosphere
Space Shuttle Discovery 1995. Sunrise over West Indies
Global Climate Change
• The atmosphere of our planet
• What is climate & is it changing?
• Causes of change
• Short and long term effects
• How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?
What is ‘Climate’?
•Climate is ‘average weather’- and its variability- for a particular region- over a period of time
•Includes many different elements
(Environment Canada – Edmonton)
What is ‘climate change’?• Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period
• It is caused by:
Natural factors- Solar variability
- Volcanic dust levels- Internal variability - Geological change
- Greenhouse gases - Aerosols - Ozone depletion
- Land use change
Human factors
(Environment Canada – Edmonton)
Is Climate Changing?
Focus First on Mean Global Surface Temperature
“Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear
war.”
World Conference on World Conference on
The Changing Atmosphere: The Changing Atmosphere: Toronto, June 1988Toronto, June 1988
WHO – from International Panel on Climate Change
Global Climate Change
• The atmosphere of our planet
• What is climate & is it changing?
• Causes of change
• Short and long term effects
• How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?
Greenhouse gases – A New Idea?
• 1827: Fourier – theorized that greenhouse gases warm the planet
• 1896: Arrhenius - proposed that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to volcanic eruptions and the combustion of coal can cause climate change
• 1938: Callendar – first noted that human emissions of CO2 may add significantly to natural concentrations in the atmosphere
• 1957: Revelle et al. – first warned that human emissions have started a global scale geophysical experiment and initiated an atmospheric CO2 concentration monitoring program
Environment Canada
How is Heat Trapped?Chemistry In Context
Wavelength Distribution of Solar Radiation
6000 K 255 K
Wavelength Distribution (non-linear scale)
Interaction of Electromagnetic Radiation with Molecules
Key Players - A Closer Look
• Carbon Dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous Oxide
• CFCs and HCFCs
• Water !
• Aerosols
• Solar activity
Carbon Dioxide – Mechanism for Tropospheric Warming ?
Perhaps one of the most Perhaps one of the most important graphs in history!important graphs in history!
Date
C0
2 (p
pm)
Source: OSTP
Carbon Dioxide Concentration Trends
How CO2 Correlates with Temperature
Photomicrograph of calcareous ooze www.soc.soton.ac.uk/.../photomicrographs/ BNFC-44PB_full.jpg
Modeling CO2 in the atmosphere – the 4-Box Model
• This can be modeled with a set of 4 coupled 1st order differential equations
• Highly simplified but qualitatively informative
Per capita CO2 emissions – Global
(Closing?) Infrared Windows
Methane by Sector - Canada
Residence time -12 yearsGlobal Warming Potential - 23
Clathrates (methane hydrates) - Runaway Greenhouse Effect?
“Super” Greenhouse Gases
100 year mass normalized global warming potential of 18,000Relative to carbon dioxide
Terraform Mars with Super Greenhouse Gases?
Proceedings of Natl Academy of Sciences, Feb 2001
The Bottom Line?
Cautious
Increasing Confidence
The International Panel on Climate Change is the principal source of sound advice on
climate change science
1990
1992
1995
1997
2001
First ReportFirst Report
Second ReportSecond Report
Third ReportThird Report
The IPCC progression in confidence
FAR: "Our judgment is that the size of [global] warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability“
SAR: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.“
TAR: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."
Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001
“The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”
IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, 2001
Global Climate Change
• The atmosphere of our planet
• What is climate & is it changing?
• Causes of change
• Short and long term effects
• How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?
The IPCC Third Assessment Report
• The IPCC TAR (2001) was a peer-reviewed publication, the result of the work of hundreds of leading climate scientists and modellers.
• A Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was also released, which – Developed 4 major scenario families of possible
future emissions of the major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, etc…)
• Our models use EdGCM – based on a NASA/ GISS Global Climate Model
Special Report on Emissions (SRES) Scenarios
Global Climate Change
• The atmosphere of our planet
• What is climate & is it changing?
• Causes of change
• Short and long term effects
• How do humans respond to uncertain choices when the time scale is long?
Range of IPCC Model Predictions
“If you were unkind enough to put a frog into boiling water, he would jump out if able to do so. If you were to put him into cold water and then gradually heat up the water, you would end up with frog soup.”
Sir Crispin Tickell, Ambassador to the UN from Great Britain
FROG SOUP?
Precautionary Principle?
“Maybe we should take the example of the Iroquois Nation, who require its tribal councils to formally consider the impact of their decisions to the seventh generation into the future, or about 150 years. This is about the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” Shayne Janzen, King’s student - Brief to Climate Change Central
Teaching Resources…
Teaching Resources…• Approximately a dozen Flash applets
which can be accessed via the www
• Designed to be embedded in teaching lessons
• A mixture of demo and activity based Digital Learning Objects (DLO’s)
• Free access for educational purposes!
• Funded by NSERC/CRYSTAL and The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science
Two examples of Activity-Based DLO’s
Investigation of IPCC possible scenarios for climate change
Student “life-style” questionnaire - illustrates howchoices we make can influencethe future climate
What’s Next?
• 1-day spring workshop on the topic of global climate change and how to use the resources developed at KCVS
• 2-day summer workshop devoted to visualization development and lesson design
• 1 or 2 summer internships are available to work on this
Questions?
• brian.martin@kingsu.ca
• URL for The King’s Centre for Visualization in Science:
kcvs.ca