Post on 31-Dec-2015
description
transcript
Iván Mejía-Guevara
Virgilio Partida-BushSeoul, Nov-06, 2007
Life-Cycle Deficit and Income from Abroad
MEXICO 2004-2006
Contents
1. Life-Cycle Deficit: MEXICO 2004-2006
2. Smoothing
3. Remittances
4. Future work
1. Life-Cycle Deficit: MEXICO 2004-2006
Per Capita Labor Income, Consumption and LCDMexico, 2004
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Mex
ican
Pe
sos
Private
Public
Total
LCD
Per Capita Labor Income, Consumption and LCDMexico, 2005
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
Total
Private
Public
LCD
Per Capita Labor Income, Consumption and LCDMexico, 2006
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Mex
ican
Pe
sos
Private
Public
Total
LCD
Labor Income and Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico, 2004-2006
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Labor Income and Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico, 2004-2006
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006Ac=31 AYL=39
Demand for negative wealth
Life-Cycle Deficit,relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico, 2004-2006
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Mex
ica
n P
eso
s
2004
2005
2006
Agregated Private Consumption and Labor Income, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico, 2004-2006
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Support Ratio, Mexico, 1900-2050(2004-2006 Profiles)
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.8019
00
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Age
Mex
ican
Pes
os
2004
2005
2006
Mexico's First Dividend, 1900-2050 (Estimated with 2004-2006 Profiles)
-0.02
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.0219
00
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Age
Mex
ican
Pes
os
2004
2005
2006
Private Education Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Private Health Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Housing, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Private Other Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Private Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Public Consumption, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico 2004-2006
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Sample 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006Households 10,108 17,167 22,595 23,174 20,875 Individuals 42,535 72,602 91,738 94,308 83,624
FIES 2000-2006
Main Data Sources
Methods and Assumptions
Method AC Method AC Method ACPrivate Consumption
EducationFIES-2004 (enrollment
rates), Regression NIPA 2004, SPFIES-2005 (enrollment
rates), Regression NIPA 2005, SPFIES-2006 (enrollement
rates), Regression NIPA 2006, SP
Health
Regression, Iterative, inpatient services (IN) and outpatient services (OUT) in 2006 from the ENS-2006 NIPA 2004, SP
Regression, Iterative, inpatient services (IN) and outpatient services (OUT) in 2006 from the ENS-2006 NIPA 2005, SP
Regression, Iterative, inpatient services (IN) and outpatient services (OUT) in 2006 from the ENS-2006 NIPA 2006, SP
Housing Equivalence scale NIPA 2004, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2005, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2006, SPOther Equivalence scale NIPA 2004, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2005, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2006, SP
Public Consumption
Education
UNESCO: Percentaje distribution of current expenditure on education by level (PDCEEL), Pre-primary, Primary, Secondary, Tertiary -2004 NIPA 2004
UNESCO: PDCE, Pre-primary, Primary, Secondary, Tertiary - 2004 NIPA 2005
UNESCO: PDCE, Pre-primary, Primary, Secondary, Tertiary -2004 NIPA 2006
Health
Private proportion, per
capita, IMSS1 NIPA 2004
Private proportion, per
capita, IMSS1 NIPA 2005
Private proportion, per
capita, IMSS1 NIPA 2006Other per capita NIPA 2004 per capita NIPA 2005 per capita NIPA 2006
Labor IncomeEarnings FIES 2004 NIPA 2004 FIES 2005 NIPA: GDP 2005, GDI 2004 FIES 2006 GDP 2006, GDI 2004Unincorporated FIES 2004 NIPA 2004 FIES 2005 NIPA: GDP 2005, GDI 2004 FIES 2006 GDP 2006, GDI 2004
SP: Sample proportionGDI: Gross Domestic IncomeNHS: National Health SurveyENS 2006 (National Health Survey)Source: Estimations by FUNSALUD based on SUI-13y 27 from IMSS, Boletin IMSS, ENSA 2000 and ENIGH 2000
2006Profile
2004 2005
Methods and Assumptions
Method AC Method ACPrivate Consumption
EducationFIES-2000 (enrollment
rates), Regression NIPA 2000, SPFIES-2002 (enrollment
rates), Regression NIPA 2002, SP
Health
Regression, Iterative, inpatient services (IN) and outpatient services
(OUT) in 2006 (?) from the ENS-2006 NIPA 2000, SP
Regression, Iterative, inpatient services (IN) and outpatient services
(OUT) in 2006 (?) from the ENS-2006 NIPA 2002, SP
Housing Equivalence scale NIPA 2000, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2002, SPOther Equivalence scale NIPA 2000, SP Equivalence scale NIPA 2002, SP
Public Consumption
Education
UNESCO: Percentaje distribution of current expenditure on education by level (PDCEEL), Primary -2000 NIPA 2000
UNESCO: PDCE, Pre-primary, Primary, Secondary, Tertiary-2002 NIPA 2002
Health
Private proportion, per
capita, IMSS1 NIPA 2000
Private proportion, per
capita, IMSS1 NIPA 2002Other per capita NIPA 2000 per capita NIPA 2002
Labor IncomeEarnings FIES 2000 NIPA 2000 FIES 2002 NIPA 2002Unincorporated FIES 2000 NIPA 2000 FIES 2002 NIPA 2002
SP: Sample proportionGDI: Gross Domestic IncomeNHS: National Health SurveyENS 2006 (National Health Survey)1Source: Estimations by FUNSALUD based on SUI-13y 27 from IMSS, Boletin IMSS, ENSA 2000 and ENIGH2000
Profile2000 2002
2.Smoothing
200620052004
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Private Health, Mexico 2004 (Regression)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 span=cv stata 0.25
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Private Health, Mexico 2004 (Iterative)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 span=cv
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Housing, Mexico 2004
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 span=cv stata(0.25)
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Other Consumption, Mexico 2004
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 stata(0.25)
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Earnings, Mexico 2004
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 stata(0.15)
Percentage Difference between Smoothed and Unsmoothed Unincorporated, Mexico 2004
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
span=0.1 span=0.2 span=0.3 span=cv stata(0.22)
3. Income from Abroad
Income from abroad(2004 Profile)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0 5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
+
Age
Mex
ica
n P
eso
s
Income from Abroad, relative to average YL 30-49, Mexico, 2004-2006 (prelim)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Me
xic
an
Pe
so
s
2004
2005
2006
Remittances, Mexico Ene 95-Jul-07 (US millions)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Ene
-95
Jul-9
5
Ene
-96
Jul-9
6
Ene
-97
Jul-9
7
Ene
-98
Jul-9
8
Ene
-99
Jul-9
9
Ene
-00
Jul-0
0
Ene
-01
Jul-0
1
Ene
-02
Jul-0
2
Ene
-03
Jul-0
3
Ene
-04
Jul-0
4
Ene
-05
Jul-0
5
Ene
-06
Jul-0
6
Ene
-07
Jul-0
7
Remittances, Mexico 2004
Thousands of mex$
Compensation of Employee 2,390,000,889Compensation of Employee 2,341,995,759Imputed Social Contributions 30,713,853Net Compensation of Employees from ROW 17,291,277
Net Other Current Transfers from ROW 192,718,502
Remittances (mill US$) 16,730Remittances (Thousands of mex$) ER=11.27 188,487,896Source: Central Bank of Mexico
Source: NIPA 2004
4. Future work
LCD Profiles for 2000 and 2002
Remittances Profile
Asset reallocations and Transfers 2004
Thank you!
Chichen-Itza, Yucatán, México