Post on 10-Jul-2020
transcript
Japan’s Renewable Energy Policy
Takuya YAMAZAKI
DirectorRenewable Energy Division
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE)Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
Big Policy Changes after 3.11 : FIT to Renewables
2
FIT was introduced in 2012 and power generated by renewables has rapidly increased.
FIT (¥)
SolarNon-residential
Wind> 20kW
Geo> 15MW
Biomasswood
20162012
40 21
22
26
24
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Power generation ratio (%)
25% 28% 32%
29%42%
42%7%
18% 9%29%
2%2%
10% 10% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2012 2016
RenewablesNuclearOilLNGCoal
(Regionally-Segmented Market before 3.11)
3
Japan is divided into 10 regions, each of which is operated and controlled by a regional electric power company with little cross-regional demand-supply coordination.
Hokkaido5 GW
Tohoku14 GW
Kansai26 GW
Hokuriku5 GW
Kyushu15 GW
Chugoku11 GW
Shikoku5 GW
5.57GW16.66GW
5.57GW 2.4GW
5.57GW0.3GW
0.6GW
12.62GW
1.2GW
DC Tie line
BTB
DC Tie lineChubu25 GW
Tokyo50 GW1.4GW
Frequency in West: 60Hz
FC
*DC: direct current, FC: frequency conversion
Frequency in East: 50Hz
*The figures below indicates the maximum electricity demand in 2015.
Big Policy Changes after 3.11: Market Reform
4
Power Generation
Transmission &Distribution
Retail
Big EPCOs will be mandated to unbundle
T&D sector in 2020
Power Generation
Transmission &Distribution
Retail
Retail market was fully deregulated in 2016
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kansai
Hokuriku
Kyushu
Chugoku
Shikoku
Chubu Tokyo
Okinawa
Established OCCTO* in 2015 to promote cross-regional
electricity transmission
*Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators
Trend of Renewables since 2003
6
RES, particularly solar, have rapidly increased since FIT introduction in 2012.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Solar PVWind powerMiddle and small hydropowerGeothermalBiomass
39GW
3.4GW
9.9GW
0.5GW3.2GW
Average annual growth rate
5%
Average annual growth rate
9%
Average annualgrowth rate
26%
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Capacity of renewables (GW)60
50
40
30
20
10
0
New Political Targets on Renewables
7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2016 2030
Renewables incl.hydro
Nuclear
Thermal64%
26%
10%
83.8%
1.7%
15%
56%
20-22%
22-24%
Japan will aim at increasing power generated by renewables up to 22-24% by 2030 and “will make renewables primary generation source”.
Hydro: 8.8-9.2%Solar: 7.0%Wind: 1.7%Biomass: 3.7-4.6%Geothermal: 1-1.1%
Power generation ratio (%)
Challenge #1: High Cost
9
6
122
5
2
3
0
5
10
15
20
Euorpe Japan
Equipment cost• High FIT allows multiple intermediaries
to join the market, creating multi-layered distribution system.
Construction cost• Little flat land and insufficient
construction industry system make construction cost high.
Operation & maintenance• Few experts and little use of big data
lead to high operation and maintenance cost
¥10
¥20
Cost of solar (¥/kWh, 2016)
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy’s analysis based on data by Bloomberg New Energy Finance
It costs a lot to produce power by renewables in Japan.
Challenge #2: Grid Constraints
10
While power generated by renewables greatly vary due to geographical and climate reasons, regional monopoly, which prevents national-level demand-supply adjustment, creates overcapacity in some regions.
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kansai
Hokuriku
Kyushu
Chugoku
Shikoku
Chubu Tokyo
Okinawa
6.45GW 81% of
demand
Power generated by solar reaches 80% in Kyushu area.
Challenge #3: Unbalanced Mix
11
94.1%
2.1%3% 0.04%
SolarWindBiomassGeothermal
RES integration after FIT started (%)
Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Unbalanced introduction of renewables has proceeded after FIT started in 2012.
Responses to Challenges
12
High cost
Grid constraints
Unbalanced mix
Introduce auction system to FIT.• Solar : introduced (¥21/kWh → ¥17/kWh)• Biomass : planned
Promote further cross-regional adjustment through OCCTO Introducing implicit auction for interconnections Started the “Connect & Manage” scheme
Set three-year tariffs for geothermal and biomass Promote offshore windmill through providing rights to use
sea area to lowest-bidding power generators• Submitted the bill to the Diet to be discussed
13
Current Status of Bioenergy
0.05 0.160.42 0.240.640.48
0.37
1.89
1.24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Before FIT(2012)
After FIT(2017)
2030
Municipal wasteConstruction wasteGeneral woodThinned woodMethane gas
Installed Capacity of Biomass (GW)
Introduce more biomass without subsidies (→ combined heat and power (CHP), larger scale development)
Ensure stable procurement and sustainability(→ stringent verification)
2.3
3.5
6.0-7.3
2.7-4.0