Post on 09-Oct-2020
transcript
JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing
Susan L. Brogan JETNET iQ Director, Special Programs Tel: 703-298-1112 susan@jetnet.com
2 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
2013 GDP Forecasts & “Top 20” Jet Fleets
!323!! !167!! !162!! !119!! !185!! !130!!!788!! !819!! !516!!
!11,603!!
!210!!!556!!
!172!! !261!! !441!! !237!! !219!! !156!! !129!! !146!!
7.5%!
5.0%!4.3%!
3.5%!
2.4%! 2.2%!1.9%! 1.7%! 1.7%! 1.6%! 1.4%! 1.3%!
1.0%! 0.8%!0.5%! 0.4%!
/0.1%!
/0.9%!/1.6%! /1.8%!
/4.0%!
/2.0%!
0.0%!
2.0%!
4.0%!
6.0%!
8.0%!
!/!!!!
!2,000!!
!4,000!!
!6,000!!
!8,000!!
!10,000!!
!12,000!!
!14,000!!
China!&!Hon
g!Ko
ng! India!
Argen
?na
!
Saud
i!Arabia!
Australia!
Russian
!Fede
ra?on
!
Brazil!
Mexico!
Cana
da!
United!States!
Switzerlan
d!
United!Kingdo
m!
South!Africa!
Vene
zuela!
Germany!
Austria!
Fran
ce!
Portugal!
Spain!
Italy! !R
eal!G
DP!Growth!Forecast!for!20
13!(B
LUE!Line
)!
Business!Jet!Fleet!(units)!/!Sep
t.!30,!2013!(RED
!Bars)!
2013!GDP!Forecasts!and!"Top!20"!Business!Jet!Fleets!!
Markets(with(3.0%+(GDP(growth(represent(only(4%(of(the(world(business(jet(fleet(
3 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
7.7%$
3.2%$
5.1%$
2.5%$
3.7%$
3.4%$
0.9%$
3.6%$
1.7%$
2.8%$
1.0%$
0.2%$
5.6%$
0.9%$
0.9%$
0.0%$
.0.6%$
.1.6%$
.2.4%$
.3.2%$
7.5%$
5.0%$
3.5%$
1.9%$
2.4%$
2.2%$
2.0%$
1.7%$
1.7%$
1.6%$
1.4%$
1.3%$
0.8%$
0.5%$
0.4%$
.0.1%$
.0.5%$
.1.6%$
.1.8%$
.1.9%$
China$
India$
Saudi$Arabia$
South$Africa$
Australia$
Russia$
Brazil$
Mexico$
Canada$
United$States$
Switzerland$
United$Kingdom$
Venezuela$
Germany$
Austria$
France$
Euro$Area$
Spain$
Italy$
Portugal$
2012$GDP$and$2013$GDP$Forecast$$Key$Business$Avia:on$Markets$
2013F$GDP$
2012$GDP$
2012 GDP and 2013 GDP Forecasts
649$Jets$$in$2013$
745$Jets$$in$2014$
801$Jets$$in$2015$
0"
200"
400"
600"
800"
1000"
1200"
1400"
1600"
1800"
$0"
$200"
$400"
$600"
$800"
$1,000"
$1,200"
$1,400"
$1,600"
$1,800"
1990"
1991"
1992"
1993"
1994"
1995"
1996"
1997"
1998"
1999"
2000"
2001"
2002"
2003"
2004"
2005"
2006"
2007"
2008"
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2010"
2011"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2015"
2016"
2017"
2018"
2019"
World$Deliveries$(units)$<$Lagged$2$Years$
U.S.$C
orpo
rate$Profits$AIer$Tax$($
US$Billion
s)$<$With$IVA$and
$CCA
$
U.S.$Corporate$Profits$and$Worldwide$Business$Jet$Deliveries$(Lagged$2$Years)$1990$<$2013,$including$2013<2015$JETNET$iQ$Business$Jet$Delivery$Forecast$
(2013$Corporate$Profits$thru$Q2$2013$at$annual$rates)$
U.S."Corporate"Profits"
World"Business"Jet"Deliveries"
U.S. Corporate Profits & Jet Deliveries
4 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Business Jet Deliveries (units)
1" 1" 20" 22" 11" 40"
212"
323"
141"
229"211"
118"84"
173"
253"305"287"
247"302"
333"397"
473"
556"
465"
288"324"297"
212"221"218"264"264"250"251"265"254"
317"307"
436"502"
636"
747"790"
727"
545"589"
706"
854"
1093"
1274"
928"
803"
684"674"
362"
1957"
1960"
1961"
1962"
1963"
1964"
1965"
1966"
1967"
1968"
1969"
1970"
1971"
1972"
1973"
1974"
1975"
1976"
1977"
1978"
1979"
1980"
1981"
1982"
1983"
1984"
1985"
1986"
1987"
1988"
1989"
1990"
1991"
1992"
1993"
1994"
1995"
1996"
1997"
1998"
1999"
2000"
2001"
2002"
2003"
2004"
2005"
2006"
2007"
2008"
2009"
2010"
2011"
2012"
2013"
Jet"Deliveries"
18%$CAGR$2003,2008$
22%$CAGR$1996,2001$
18%$CAGR$1976,1981$
Down%%48%%
Down%%49%%
Down%%31%%
5 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
1" 8" 5" 10"13" 5" 16"26"
48"30"17"26"31"
110"162"
301"
202"187"
158"169"198"
337"315"
297"
403"
452"
587"609"
775"
903"
566"
329"
285"
416"
208"210"229"
286"258"
234"215"
235"
152"
256"266"273"
306"326"340"
382"
283"294"
354"352"
418"435"
526"
464"
391"362"
325"
219"
1952"
1953"
1954"
1955"
1956"
1957"
1958"
1959"
1960"
1961"
1962"
1963"
1964"
1965"
1966"
1967"
1968"
1969"
1970"
1971"
1972"
1973"
1974"
1975"
1976"
1977"
1978"
1979"
1980"
1981"
1982"
1983"
1984"
1985"
1986"
1987"
1988"
1989"
1990"
1991"
1992"
1993"
1994"
1995"
1996"
1997"
1998"
1999"
2000"
2001"
2002"
2003"
2004"
2005"
2006"
2007"
2008"
2009"
2010"
2011"
2012"
2013"
20%$CAGR:$1975.1981$
14%$CAGR:$1994.2001$
15%$CAGR:$2005.2008$
Down%%68%%
Down%%37%%
Business Turboprop Deliveries (units)
6 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Pre-Owned Business Aircraft Inventory
0%#
2%#
4%#
6%#
8%#
10%#
12%#
14%#
16%#
18%#
20%#
#)####
#500##
#1,000##
#1,500##
#2,000##
#2,500##
#3,000##
#3,500##
2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013#
Business#Jets#and#Turboprops#for#sale#Oct#2006#)##Oct#2013#
##of#Jets#for#sale# ##of#Turboprops#for#sale# %#of#Jets#for#sale# %#of#Turboprops#for#sale#
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Business/Jets 12.4% 11.2% 13.8% 17.1% 15.1% 13.8% 13.5% 13.2%Turboprop 8.7% 8.1% 9.4% 11.4% 10.7% 10.1% 8.5% 7.7%
Jets/Available/for/Sale/as/%/of/World/Fleet/(as/of/October/1)
7 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
!"!!!!
!1,000,000!!
!2,000,000!!
!3,000,000!!
!4,000,000!!
!5,000,000!!
!6,000,000!!
2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013!
Business'Jet'U+liza+on'(Cycles)'
USA!
Europe!
Business Jet Utilization
8 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
United'States Europe
Business'Jet'UtilizationTrailing'12'Months'Through'Aug.'2013
Trailing'12'Months'Through'Sept.'2013
Total'Business'Jet'Cycles 4,021,982 507,704Change'vs.'Prior'Month 0.2% 0.0%Change'vs.'Prior'Year 1.3% K2.1%Change'vs.'2'Years'Ago 1.4% K6.5%
49.1%& 52.7%& 47.7%& 49.7%& 53.3%&
26.9%&25.8%&
25.0%&28.4%&
28.9%&
24.0%& 21.4%&27.3%& 21.9%& 17.8%&
All#Respondents# Turboprop#Operators#
Small#Jet#Operators#
Medium#Jet#Operators#
Large#Jet#Operators#
Past#low#point# At#low#point# Not#reached#low#point#Q3 2013 Survey
Where is the Business Avia/on Industry In the Current Business Cycle?
9 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Q3 2013 Survey
6.1%% 5.7%%
4.6%% 4.4%% 4.0%% 4.0%% 3.8%%3.3%%
FALCON%2000% GULFSTREAM%G:550%
CHALLENGER%300%
PILATUS%PC:12%CITATION%CJ3% CITATION%SOVEREIGN%
EMBRAER%PHENOM%300%
KING%AIR%200%
Top%8%models%:%worldwide%%"Best%value%for%dollar"%
Which aircra8 brand / model has the best value for the dollar?
10 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Business aircra8 brand expected to show the most improvement over the next 5-‐10 years
7.6%%
2.4%%
4.2%%
5.4%%
6.2%%
6.2%%
13.2%%
15.8%%
17.8%%
21.2%%
Others'
Hawker'
Pilatus'
Beechcra2'
HondaJet'
Dassault'Falcon'
Gulfstream'
Bombardier'
Cessna'
Embraer'
Brand%expected%to%show%the%most%improvement%over%the%next%5=10%years%
11 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Q3 2013 Survey
World Fleet
Small%Jets%42.1%%
Medium%Jets%33.1%%
Large%Jets%24.8%%
New Business Jet Purchase Intentions Purchases -‐ Next 12 Months
Purchases -‐ Next 1-‐5 years
Q3 2013 Survey
Small%Jets%27.5%%
Medium%Jets%46.2%%
Large%Jets%26.4%%
Small%Jets%27.3%%
Medium%Jets%41.8%%
Large%Jets%30.9%%
12 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
1.1%$
4.3%$
5.0%$
5.1%$
6.2%$
6.7%$
7.7%$
8.5%$
10.6%$
11.6%$
12.8%$
20.5%$
Other&
Public&opinion&of&business&avia4on&
Using&alterna4ve&flight&solu4ons&(charter,&commercial,&jet&card,&frac4onal,&etc.)&
Will&get&a&be@er&deal&on&a&new&business&aircraB&if&I&wait&a&year&
Availability&of&financing&or&capital&for&purchase&
No&compelling&aircraB&that&meet&my&organiza4on's&needs&
Opera4ng&cost&too&high&
Decline&in&business&ac4vity&
Inability&to&sell¤t&aircraB&
Purchase&price&or&tradeKup&cost&too&high&
Uncertainty&about&economy&/®ulatory&environment&
Do¬&need&addi4onal&aircraB&
Purchase$inhibitors$Aircraft Purchase Inhibitors
Q3 2013 Survey Top 3 Inhibitors – Weighted Average
“Which of the following factors are most likely to prevent or delay your
organizaQon from purchasing a business aircraR over the
next 12 months?”
13 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Expected change in pre-‐owned prices for 10-‐15 year-‐old aircra8 – next 24 months
By Respondent Region
!1.7%&
!3.4%& !3.5%&
!2.7%&
!7.1%&
!6.4%&
!7.2%&!7.6%&
!4.8%&
!7.7%&
!6.8%&
!5.2%&
!6.4%&
!7.3%&
!6.3%&
!4.7%&
Turboprops& Small&Jets& Medium&Jets& Large&Jets&
Selling&Price&ExpectaEons&by&Size&Category&and&Region&
North&America& LaEn&America&&&Caribbean& Europe& Rest&of&World&
Q3 2013 Survey
14 November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013
Business Jet Delivery History & Forecast
November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013 15
0"
200"
400"
600"
800"
1000"
1200"
1400"
2003"
2004"
2005"
2006"
2007"
2008"
2009"
2010"
2011"
2012"
2013F"
2014F"
2015F"
2016F"
2017F"
2018F"
2019F"
2020F"
2021F"
2022F"
Deliveries"(units)"
Business"jet"deliveries"<"historical"and"forecast"by"size"category:"2003"<"2022"
Personal"Jet" Very"Light"Jet" Light"Jet" Super"Light"Jet" Mid<Size"Jet"
Super"Mid<Size"Jet" Large"Jet" Large"Long<Range"Jet" Large"Ultra"Long<Range"Jet" Airline"Business"Jet"
Deliveries"2013<2022:""9,094"units"
0"
100"
200"
300"
400"
500"
600"
700"
800"
900"
1000"
2003"
2004"
2005"
2006"
2007"
2008"
2009"
2010"
2011"
2012"
2013F"
2014F"
2015F"
Deliveries"(units)"
Business"jet"deliveries"<"historical"and"forecast"by"size"category:"2003"<"2015"(excluding"Very"Light"Jets)"
Light"Jet" Super"Light"Jet" Mid<Size"Jet" Super"Mid<Size"Jet" Large"Jet" Large"Long<Range"Jet" Large"Ultra"Long<Range"Jet" Airline"Business"Jet"
About JETNET iQ Launched in January 2011, JETNET iQ is a forecasting and premium advisory service for the business aviation market, designed to help customers “Know More”. Available on an annual subscription basis, JETNET iQ has 3 main elements: 1) JETNET iQ REPORTS are the definitive analytical reference for the business aviation industry, incorporating state-of-the-industry analyses, proprietary aircraft owner/operator surveys, and detailed 10-year delivery and fleet forecasts, updated quarterly. 2) JETNET iQ SUMMITS provide fast-paced thought-provoking insights into the state of the industry, and unique networking opportunities. 3) JETNET iQ RESEARCH serves the needs of customers with unique requirements for research and analysis on a project-by-project basis. For more information on JETNET iQ, log on to www.jetnetiq.com or contact Rolland Vincent, JETNET iQ Creator/Director at 1-972-439-2069 or rollie@jetnet.com.
November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013 16
About JETNET Since 1988, JETNET has delivered the most comprehensive and reliable business aircraft research to its exclusive clientele of aviation professionals worldwide. JETNET is the ultimate source for information and intelligence on the worldwide business, commercial, and helicopter aircraft fleet and marketplace, comprised of some 100,000 airframes. Headquartered in its state-of-the-art facility in Utica, NY, JETNET offers comprehensive user-friendly aircraft data via real-time internet access or regular updates. For more information on JETNET LLC log on to jetnet.com or contact Paul Cardarelli, JETNET Vice President of Sales, at 1-800-553-8638 (USA) or paul@jetnet.com; International inquiries, contact Karim Derbala, JETNET Managing Director of Global Sales, at 41.0.43.243.7056 or karim@jetnet.com
November 13, 2013 JETNET iQ State of the Market Briefing -‐
NATA 2013 17