Joe Vaughan, Serena Chung, Farren Herron -Thorpe, Rodrigo...

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Joe Vaughan, Serena Chung, Farren Herron-Thorpe, Rodrigo Gonzales, Rui Zhang, and Brian Lamb

Laboratory for Atmospheric Research

Update Overview Airpact-3

Wildfires running, big fire season (no emissions on 2nd and 3rd day) Running on Breezy—getting old and unreliable—big problems in the last few

days What’s the future for AP-3? AP Primer initiated for public education Final AQ observations (after QA) uploaded for performance evaluation

http://lar.wsu.edu/airpact/AP3_2007/ap3_performance.aspx Airpact-4

Major changes to cluster, AP-4 was down for an extended period Now running much faster

Sept 1—problem with PM2.5 emissions—probably related to spatial surrogate errors in Idaho and along the Oregon coast

MOVES emission processing Initial files received from IDEQ Tests underway

Boise 2008-2009 winter study, AP-4 reruns are planned with MOVES emissions WRF rerun with analysis nudging for the Boise region under evaluation

Wildfire emission processing in development (similar to AP-3)

Update Overview (cont) ClearSky

Old system still running defaults for Nez Perce CMAQ tracer version has been built (initially used for BCON studies, ready to use for ag burns) Investigations of BlueSky framework

Optimal setup for wildfires Development of method for agricultural burning and orchard burns Literature review underway on ag emission studies Aim for spring operation of CMAQ tracer system for ag burns

NASA Roses (using AP-3) BCON Tracer experiments with Jaffe AOD calculation scheme improved (Mie theory-based from CMAQ code) Wildfire investigations vs satellite obs

GEOSS project Tasks 1-3 completed—development and implementation of Airpact satellite web site Task 4 in progress—addition of more products to the web site

New NASA proposal submitted (UW and WSU, wildfire emission methods) NASA WRF-Fire new project awarded—one year feasibility study (Edburg, PI) BC project underway—WRF simulations done for CONUS 1998-2005 (36 km) Climate change

Policy Relevant Background (PRB) simulations almost complete Relative reduction factor paper published in JAWM

Wildfires in Airpact-3, Summer, 2012 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~empact/AIRPACTC

MAQ/data/flash_base/nwairpact_flash.php

Airpact Primer—information for public users

http://lar.wsu.edu/airpact/ap_primer.html

BCON upper air tracers in AP-3 Contributions of long range transport (LT) and upper troposphere (UT) intrusions to surface layer ozone

Motivated by Jaffe observations at Mount Bachelor and the ability to classify LT vs UT

Introduce non-reactive O3 tracers equal to BCON O3 concentrations for each model layer along the model boundaries

Provides a basis for tagging elevated upper air ozone levels to see how much mixing to the surface occurs downwind of the Cascades

Long-Range Transport Event Detected at Mt. Bachelor Summit July 6 – 8, 2008

Monitored hourly ozone Mt. Bachelor, OR & Boise, ID

From Wigder et. al, 2006

(JGR in review)

Surface Ozone from Layers 13-16

April 2010 ozone case study with tracer only version of CMAQ

From Wigder et. al, 2006

(JGR in review)

Airpact-4 Status and Issues Major upgrade to cluster

AP-4 down for several weeks Re-runs underway to recover missing days for the

archive Significant speed-up following upgrades

Before System Upgrade

9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM

MCIP run

Transfer to WSU

CMAQ pre-proc

Post-proc

Performance charts on the web

CMAQ run

Emission maps creation

Animation and satellite figures on

the web

9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM

MCIP run

Transfer to WSU

CMAQ pre-proc

Post-proc

Performance charts on the web

CMAQ run

Emission maps creation

Animation and satellite figures on

the web

After System Upgrade (8/15/2012)

PM2.5 emission errors in AP-4 Significant areas of Idaho show unrealistically high

PM2.5 emissions beginning on Sept 1 Traced to errors in the spatial surrogates used for area

sources Also errors showing up as emission off the Oregon

coast (errors in spatial surrogate for wood stoves)

PM2.5(Other) and Anthropogenic Organic PM

NH4 and EC PM

SO4 PM

Non point Border States 2002 National Emissions Inventory

Non road Border States 2002 National Emissions Inventory Road Dust

Residential wood combustion

Aug 15, 2012

Excludes road dust, residential wood combustion, and dairy

Other area sources Other area sources

Aug 15 Sept 15

GEOSS Airpact Progress Current AIRPACT-4 Google Maps site is operational and at: http://lar.wsu.edu/airpact/gmap/ap4.html Features: • Google Maps framework (pan, zoom, and search for locations) • Calendar interface to select date of interest • Air quality map opacity control • Animation controls for AIRPACT-4 maps • Custom overlays such as dominant land use, AIRNow sites, and relevant borders (i.e.

counties, National Parks & Monuments) • AIRPACT-4 hourly animations of emissions and predicted concentrations for ozone and

particulate related chemistry are available by selecting an AIRNow site location. • Meteorology hourly animations derived from UW WRF forecast • Satellite imagery for twice daily retrievals of:

• MODIS AOD • AIRS surface and column ozone and column CO,

• Satellite imagery for daily retrievals of afternoon OMI tropospheric NO2 and SO2. • Global model results (on 6-hr time steps) from NCAR’s MOZART-4, using MOPITT-

assimilated CO (the same system currently used to derive AIRPACT boundary conditions).

• Currently satellite retrievals are available after a lag of about 2 days, relative to the availability of the forecast. This is due to the delay imposed by satellite data processing time upon availability.

Ongoing product development • Hourly satellite cloud products

• Currently testing GRIB files from GOES-AOD

• Vertically specific MOZART-4 results • Currently only “Surface” results are shown • We have 2 other levels of MOZART results that we can show on the web

• Monthly deposition maps for total wet and dry N, S and Hg, and gaseous and particulate contributions.

• This will be done outside of the GMAPS framework (static monthly maps)

• Profiles of AIRS ozone and carbon monoxide over surface monitor locations

• Requires collaboration on how this will be displayed on the GMAPS site

• Revised AQS / EPA surface monitor performance charts • This will be done outside of the GMAPS framework • Currently updated AP3 results for 2007 is on the we

GEOSS options for additional products

European satellite products (newer instruments) NPP (next US satellite, poorer resolution) BCON tracer operational product

MODIS (Aqua) AOD July 18, 2007

July 18, 2007

MODIS (Aqua) AOD August 12, 2007

August 12, 2007

D1: 12km X 12km D2: 4km X 4km

WRF test run for Jan2009 using NARR analysis field as the BCON 1. Model evaluation with a focus on Boise and vicinity 2. Use MESOWEST observation data (NWS/RAWS) 3. Use WRF configuration with UW AIRPACT4 (5 -layer thermal LSM),

including analysis nudging in the D1 domain using NARR fields

Boise Winter Study AP4 analysis

Boise region meteorological stations

TEMP2 (6 sites near Boise, black – AIRPACT, red – this run)

Wind Rose comparison