Post on 18-Jan-2018
description
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BOEING FLIGHT
TESTING
Kelly KimberlingKelsey LaRocheTyde SirkMichael Ulmen
TEAM INPUT & CONFLICTS Only one person can work on the model at
once Weekly time spent on project was over 18
people hours Email good source of communication
PROBLEM DESCRIPTION Estimating testing time with given resources
is problematic What is the probability of finishing the
certification tests by a given date with given resources
What is the time between gates This helps to find finish time after major delays
OBJECTIVE Estimate two kinds of variability
Resource skill level Failures/Delays/Visits from Murphy during testing
METHOD Discrete event simulation in conjunction with
Monte Carlo simulation using the simulation software Arena Based on business rules Many iterations with variation in each test Allows visualization of the process with
animation Able to see what resources are spending the
most time at ????
ASSUMPTIONS Three people per team Skill levels and pay are known and vary Testing is planned to the individual level Adequate fleet size to do all testing and/or
multiple tests to a plane in parallel Order/schedule of tests Chances and distributions Skill Distribution: 90/100/110
PARTS OF MODEL We will have shortcuts to each major part of
the model
FLIGHT VS. GROUND TESTS Flight tests have a set time but can be
delayed for weather and ground prep delays Ground tests have variable times based on
resource skills and availability and what was discovered during testing
RESOURCE TEAMS Tests are performed by teams but we allocate
individual tasks Each team has members with different skill
levels System pulls workers
Fastest to slowest Selected on preferred order based on speed of worker
and availability Could be pulled by some attribute/variable such as
cost relative to speed
FAILURES Major delays to the project
Redesigns % chance that varies each time
Minor delays to the project Weather delays Over allocated resources Resource shortage
OUTCOMES How long will it take, not as point estimate,
but as confidence interval and probability 25 Workers
Fastest worker’s total hours: Medium speed worker’s total hours: Slowest worker’s total hours:
Labor Costs Duration of process Utilization
DELAYS In-air flight testing is go/no-go
Weather delays can prevent a test % chance to delay a flight test due to weather Changes with each test and iteration Test duration is constant While plane is waiting for concurrent tasks to
finish
GATES Milestones
Record date reached Helps find major risk of delay
IMPACT ON STAKEHOLDERS If model is used
Customers can get a more realistic time frame on when to expect their planes
Boeing has a better idea knowing how long flight testing will take and expected costs (95% confidence interval)
Boeing will know how many workers they will need to complete a process in a more effective manner Can put more workers at other tasks to speed up
process