Kentucky Population GrowthDoes It Matter to Real Estate?

Michael PriceKentucky State Data CenterUniversity of Louisville

2013 Real Estate Economic ForecastThe OlmstedLouisville, Kentucky

February 7, 2013

Population(in households)

Households

Housing Units

Household Size

Occupancy-Vacancy

Kentucky State Data Center

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

3.493.17

2.822.59759875110707 2.47 2.45

Kentucky Household Size(Number of persons per household)

Kentucky State Data Center

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2,971,255

4,213,497

851,867

1,719,965

925,572

1,927,164

Population in Households

Kentucky Trends 1960-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Housing Units

Households

Housing Units

Households

HH Population

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0

108.2%

101.9%

41.8%

Kentucky Trends 1960-2010

Percent Change

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

HH PopulationHouseholdsHousing Units

% C

hang

eKentuckyDecennial Growth Rates

1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’sKentucky State Data Center

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

8.0% 7.6% 6.8%8.4% 9.2%

10.8%

Kentucky Vacancy Rates(Percent of total housing units not occupied)

Kentucky State Data Center

Source: William H. Frey

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States

America’s New Regions

The New Sunbelt

Melting Pot America

The Heartland

Diversity states

Slow growth states

Migration growth states

America’s New Demographic Regions

Source: William Frey.

Colorado Georgia-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1.9

12.2 8.6

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1.6

10.0

8.1

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

New Sunbelt

New Sunbelt: Examples

Source: William Frey.

California New York

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

7.4

-7.2

10.4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

6.0

-10.2

5.3

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

Melting Pot: Examples

Melting Pot

Source: William Frey & Michael Price

Pennsylvania

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0.9

-2.1

2

Immigration Domestic Migration Natural Increase

Heartland: Examples

Heartland

Series1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0.92.3

4.1

Kentucky

West Virginia

Virginia

Tennessee

Ohio

Missouri

Kentucky

Indiana

Illinois

United States

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

2.5%

13.0%

11.5%

1.6%

7.0%

7.4%

6.6%

3.3%

9.7%

Population Growth Rates 2000-2010

Percent Change

West Virginia

Virginia

tennessee

Ohio

Missouri

Kentucky

Indiana

Illinois

44,650

922,509

656,822

183,364

393,716

297,598

403,317

411,339

Population Growth 2000-2010

Jefferson(47,492)

Fayette(35,291)

Boone(32,820)

Warren(21,270)

Oldham(14,138)

Kentucky County Population Growth2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA)

CBSA’s are defined by counties.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urbanized Areas of 50,000 or more and are comprised of the host county plus neighboring counties linked by commuting.

Micropolitan Statistical Areas are based on Urban Clusters of 10,000-49,999. They are made up of the host county and neighboring counties linked by commuting

Combined Statistical Areas are comprised of two or more contiguous Metropolitan Statistical Areas and/or Micropolitan Statistical Areas.

Kentucky State Data Center

Kentucky State Data Center

In metro areas In micro areas In rural areas

83.7%

10.0% 6.3%

58.4%

17.6%24.0%

United States Kentucky

Total Population Distribution 2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Total Population

In metro areas

In micro areas

In rural areas

9.7%

10.8%

5.9%

1.8%

7.4%

11.1%

5.9%

0.2%

Kentucky United States

Population Growth 2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Rural Areas

Micro Areas

Metro Areas

3,983

42,339

251,276

Kentucky Population Growth 2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Metro Areas Micro Areas Rural Areas0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0Births Deaths Net Migration

Per

1,0

00 p

erso

nKentucky Components of Change 2000-2010

Louisville

Lexington

Cincinnati

Bowling Green

Elizabethtown

Owensboro

Clarksville

Evansville

Huntington-Ashland

97,998

63,773

46,489

21,787

12,189

3,432

922

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas 2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

I-65 I-75Corridor

Bowling Green

Lexington

Cincinnati

Elizabethtown

Louisville

Owensboro

Clarksville

Evansville

Huntington-Ashland

20.9%

15.6%

12.3%

11.3%

10.5%

4.4%

4.0%

1.6%

Population Growth in Kentucky Metro Areas Percent Change 2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

I-65 I-75Corridor

Richmond

Somerset

London

Glasgow

Mount Sterling

Frankfort

Murray

Danville

Campbellsville

Maysville

Madisonville

Mayfield

Corbin

Paducah

Central City

Union City

Middlesborough

12,518

6,846

6,134

4,202

4,201

3,908

3,014

2,116

1,585

468

401

93

Population Growth in Kentucky Micro Areas 2000-2010

Kentucky State Data Center

Total Popu-lation

White not Hispanic

Black Asian Hispanic

4.1% 3.2%8.2%

23.8%

33.4%

3.3% 0.6%5.2%

40.8%

88.2%Natural Increase Net Migration

Kentucky Components of Population Growth by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000-2010

Because household size is stabilizing, population growth is critical to the demand for housing.

Kentucky’s metro and micro areas in I-65 I-75 Corridor have robust population growth, fueled by in-migration, especially by minorities.

Kentucky State Data Center

http://ksdc.louisville.edu/

(502) 852-7990