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Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Kickoff meetingTwinning on development of
modelling capacity to support water quality monitoring in
Latvia
Ecosystem model perspectives
Photo Lake Övre hammardammen, Fredrik Ejhed
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Problems using only 22 agricultural regions in Sweden
Problems in a region with large climate gradient. Runoff is overestimated in parts of the region which dilutes thus gives too low concentrations. Total nitrogen concentration vs time in Stensån Sweden. SOILNDB and HBV.
The model is used for production of result dependent on the management practices that can be changed by measures. The large shortterm variations is not in focus of the model but it has been validated at field scale.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Swedish monitoring programme adjustments due to WFD Trend stations monitoring programme consists of stations that
– class high or good status from biological parameters– are pristine without any pressures– are sampled yearly both water chemistry and biology
Rotation stations monitoring programme consists of stations that– provide additional areal coverage of information on water
chemistry and biology– are sampled in a 6-year rotation
The largest change is increase in monitoring of biology The large river outlet to the sea monitoring programme
continues
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
6 Parameter regions for calibration of HBV hydrology
HBV230 stations for calibration140 stations for validationtimesplit validation also
Hydrological modelling HBV
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Ecosystem models Combining the complete ecosystem response to
pollution Part of the ecosystem is the water quality models Combination of atmospheric processes and water
processes
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Air - water modelling linkage Wetland Shallow lakes WFD demand good ecological status ICP Critical load = WFD border good-moderate
ecological status Model interface air –water
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
ICP critical load methods ICP modelling and mapping
http://www.oekodata.com/icpmapping/index.html
– No dynamics needed for ICP exceedence and critical load values steady state. SMB Simple Mass Balance
– In water quality model dynamic is essential for e.g. lake processes.
– Dynamics can be used to establish steady state.– In case of exceedence dynamic modelling coupled to
water quality models is needed to investigate the recovery process.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Nitrogen lake retention from catchment to sea
Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air and critical load ?
Small lakes (<1 km2) total circulation Large lakes have a passive and an active water volume which
variate with flow in and out Retention within the active part (HBV-N)
– Inorg. N : denitrification, biota assimilation, algae production and mineralisation.
Lake retention = lakeret * cilake * lakearea * tmean5lakeret = par. calibrated, cilake = concentration of inorg. N in active lake part, tmean5=mean temperature latest 5 days
– Denitrification most important.– Takes place in the sediments, thus area and not volume is a
parameter.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Retention models for lakes – the linkage to air critical load ? ...continued
Lakes with long residence time are more effective in retention of N Temperature and nutrient status control org.N production
– Lakeproduction = lakeorg * cilake2 * vlake * tmean10lakeorg=calibrated parametercilake2=concentration of inorganic N in lakevlake=lake volume tmean10=temperatur mean latest 10 daysif tmean10>tmean20 then lakeproduction is positiveif tmean10<tmean20 then lakeproduction is negative
When the temperature is lower the latest 10 days than latest 20 days, sedimentation and mineralisation exceed the production.
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Air and water quality link Runoff from paved surfaces and PM10 particles in air –a local urban problem
EU ARTEMIS project links road emissions model to traffic situations
SIMAIR swedish geographic distribution of traffic emissions
Risc assessment of effects on water bodies
f uel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimateRoad climate
f uel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
fuel emission
Break wear
Tire wearasphalt wear
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimateRoad climate
Deviation
Speed
Road salt
Road sandClimateRoad climate
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Gross load
N from forest landuse kg/ha,y
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Whithin WFDEcosystem expected ecological status Good ecological quality Target values ex. Swedish environmental quality
targets. WFD good ecological status ín Sweden
– Bottomfauna index– Fish– etc
Critical load index not entirely the same as WFD
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic pressure
Sediment
WaterSoil
Vegetation
AirAerosols
Aquatic particles
Biota
Transport Processes and the use of Models
Occurrence and distribution of chemicals in different media
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Multimedia fugacity models and screening
Useful tool for predicting environmental fate of chemicals Point out likely recipient media and transport pathways Can be used generally or for specific region Help prioritising chemicals of environmental interest, ”ranking
tool” Quick, cheap, easy
Toxic Pressures - Models
From IVL presentation in REBECCA
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Insjöar (Abborre)
ng/g
lipi
dvik
t
0
5
10
15
20
BysjönHjärtsjönStensjön
Kust (Abborre/Tånglake)
ng/g
lipi
dvik
t
0
5
10
15
VäderöarnaKvädöfjärdenHolmöarna
Hav (sill/strömming)
BDE47 BDE99 BDE100 BDE153 BDE154
ng/g
lipi
dvik
t
0
5
10
15
20
25
FladenUtlänganHarufjärden
Ref Screening of organic contaminants in Sweden Sternbeck et al 2004
Lake
Coastal
Sea
Screening
PBDEs in fish (ng/g lipid)
Occurrence
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Pollution transport and fate- fugacity models Calculates transport and fate of the substance from
equilibrium qriteria value. The model evaluates the relative partitioning
differences to different media (sediment, biota, water, air)
not applied on national level
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Example of output
Air
Sediment
SoilWater
Urban film
0.028 kg/year
0.012 kg/year
0.13 kg/year
8.44x10-4
kg/year
5.48x10-3
kg/year6.03x10-3
kg/year
3.18 kg/year
0.59 kg/year
0.14 kg/year
0 kg/year
0 kg/year
0.030 kg/year
1.61 x10-2 kg/year
0.18 kg/year
2.24x10-3
kg/year
1.7x10-3 kg/year
0.026 kg/year
3.14 kg/year
1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3
f = 8.87x10-12 Pa
0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa
1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa
1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3
f=3.58x10-12 Pa
0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg
Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days
0.10 kg/year
0.42 kg/year
reaction
advection
emission
intermedia transport
Tostratosphere
8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99
Air
Sediment
SoilWater
Urban film
0.028 kg/year
0.012 kg/year
0.13 kg/year
8.44x10-4
kg/year
5.48x10-3
kg/year6.03x10-3
kg/year
3.18 kg/year
0.59 kg/year
0.14 kg/year
0 kg/year
0 kg/year
0.030 kg/year
1.61 x10-2 kg/year
0.18 kg/year
2.24x10-3
kg/year
1.7x10-3 kg/year
0.026 kg/year
3.14 kg/year
1.72x10-4 kg (0.10%) 6.10 pg/m3
f = 8.87x10-12 Pa
0.10 kg (58.6 %) 0.12 ng/g f = 1.08x10-15 Pa
1.01x10-3 kg (0.54 %) 5.73pg/L f= 1.98x10-15 Pa
1.05x10-3kg (0.6 %) 140 mg/m3
f=3.58x10-12 Pa
0.072 kg (40.1 %) 0.54 ng/g f =3.05x10-14 PaTotal mass: 0.179 kg
Persistence = 400.19 h = 16.67 days
0.10 kg/year
0.42 kg/year
reaction
advection
emission
intermedia transport
Tostratosphere
8.33x10-6 kg/year Chemical: BDE 99
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic Pressures - QSAR/QSPR models• Quantitative structure activity/property relationships
– modelling the relation between chemical structure and activity/properties
• Prediction of unmeasured properties for substances…• …based on molecular descriptors• Reduce testing needs
Twinning water quality modelling in LatviaHelene Ejhed, 2006 09 06
Toxic Pressures -QSAR end-points
• Aquatic toxicity– acute tox (EC50/LC50)– chronic tox (EC50)– PNEC– algae– daphnia– fish
• Physical properties– biotic and abiotic
degradation– bioconcentration
BCF– soil/sediment
sorption KOC
– KOW, MP, VP, BP, HLC, SW