AIR POLLUTION, CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Patrick L. Kinney

Professor and Director Climate and Health Program. Columbia University

plk3@cumc.columbia.edu

July 7, 2015 Paris

Source: 2015 Lancet

Commission Report

Windblown Dust

Anthropogenic Ozone and PM2.5 Pollen and Allergies

Wildfire Smoke

Source: Fiore et al.,

JAWMA 2015

Relative Contributions of Emitted

Air Pollutants to Warming and

Cooling of the Earth’s Atmosphere

Source: Fiore et al.,

JAWMA 2015

Source: Jacob and

Winner, Atmos.

Environ., 2009

STRATUS CONSULTING

Health Impact Assessment

4 steps (from Campbell-Lendrum 2006):

•Identify health outcomes sensitive to climatic

influences, (via surveillance etc)

•Quantify the dose–response relationship for a baseline

climate period, (via a range epidemiologic methods)

•Define future climate exposure scenarios, (via

dynamical modeling)

•Estimate the burden of disease that is attributable to

exposure…and the burden that could be avoided by

plausible reductions in exposure. (via simple

calculations)

Source: Burnett et al., Environ. Hlth. Perspec. 2013

Green circles: Ambient Air Pollution Epidemiology

Blue triangles: Second Hand Smoking Epidem.

Black circles: Active Smoking Epidem.

Integrated Exposure Response Functions for PM2.5-related Mortality

President Obama’s Proposed “Clean Power Plan” Rule

http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/clean-power-plan-proposed-rule

• Applies to existing power plants

• Goal is to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030

• Control costs are compared to 2 kinds of benefits: • Global climate benefits, based on the social cost

of carbon

• Health co-benefits in US related to reduced air pollution

Climate Benefits Health Benefits Control Costs Net Benefits

Bill

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olla

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203

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010

20

30

40

50

60

70

Benefits and Costs in 2030 for Full Implementation

If we limit emissions of greenhouse pollutants, we

have the opportunity to also achieve direct health

benefits from cleaner air

• Air-Health benefits tend to occur close to where the emissions are reduced, so

–Local populations receive direct benefits,

–These benefits occur right away

• This provides powerful incentives for local actions to achieve both climate and community health objectives

Climate and Health Win-Win

State of the Science

We have a pretty good understanding of how ozone will respond to climate and precursor emission changes; PM2.5 story is less clear but emerging. Health impacts of are well understood

For pollen, wildfires and dust, there has been relatively less modeling work across the full continuum from climate to exposures to health

There is an urgent need for high quality, sustained research into the multiple interactions between climate and air quality of both human and natural origin