L17 The Mobile Revolution

transcript

LECTURE L17THE MOBILE REVOLUTION

Why is the mobile phone so important to us?

400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use

Mobile Phones

7.7 billion connectionshttps://gsmaintelligence.com/

Mobile Phones

4.6 unique subscribershttps://gsmaintelligence.com/

There are officially more mobile devices than people in the world

Source and image: The Independent

There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes

Mobile Phones

Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years

Image:Nokia

Mobile Phones

Why is the mobile phone so important to us?

Survival

In 2011, there were 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home

Mobile Phones provide safety

Cisco,January2011

The History of Communication

Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of communications

Militaries and business community on the forefront on the development of rapid communication

Communication

Early 19th century the horse dominated Stage coaches and pony express The railroads changed this Then came electricity

Communication

TimelineFrom 1820 to 1880 discoveries in radio and electromagnetism

The Second Industrial RevolutionThe period 1870-1914 Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries Adjacent Possible Growth period

Electromagnetism and Radio Foundation for electroniccommunications

New markets for communication

Telegraph Telephone Wireless Telegraph

Communication

The TelegraphFrom the Greek words tele = far and graphein = write (símriti)

Later to be called the “Victorian Internet”

Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals

At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing the signal

The Telegraph

The TelegraphSamuel F. B. Morse invented the first practical telegraph in 1837

Granted a patent 1838

Moore devised a telegraphic code consistingof dots and dashes

Shorter and longer electric impulse send down the wire - The Morse Code

Standardized messages

The TelephoneInvented in 1876 At the time, the telegraph was dominant Transferred sound waves with electric current over wire

Alexander G. Bell Created the first practical telephone

Based on experiments and improvements in technology at the time

The TelephoneBell was working on the harmonic telegraph

A device that could send more then one telegraph message at the same time

Worked with skilled machinist named Thomas A. Watson

Joseph Henry encouraged him in 1875 to work on the telephone instead of the harmonic telegraph

The telephone was based on variable resistance (breytilegu viðnámi)

The Telephone

The Importance of Patents

Bell filed a notice for a patent Feb. 14, 1876 “The most valuable patent ever issued” Elisha Gray also filed a patent that same day

The Patent Mystery It is still a mystery what happened that day Did Bell see Gray’s patent and update his? Over 600 legal battles would challenge the patent

Commercial Development

Bell had difficulty convincing contemporaries of the usefulness of the telephone - the telegraph prevailed

Difficult to get investment

Bell offered the patent to Western Union for $100.000 which they declined

Bell continued and slowly telephonesstarted to replace telegraphs

The Bell Company

In 1877 Bell and his backers formed the first Bell Company

Business model: Bell Company leased telephones and licensed franchises instead of selling them

The Battle with Western UnionBell sued Western Union for patent infringements and settled in 1879

Bell agreed not to go into the telegraph market, and Western Union agreed not to go into the telephone market

Bell would buy Western Union’s telephone network with 50.000 subscribers in 50 cities and pay a license

Stock in Bell’s company rose from $50 to $500 in 1879

History

At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication were dominant

The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War (1861-65), dominated by Western Union

The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell

Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based

Wireless Telegraph

Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunityin wireless communication

Studied physics at the Universityof Bologna

Several experiments in 1894 inBologna, Italy

Marconi’s goal was to use hisknowledge developed in telephony

The Product

Marconi was improving the telegraph

“Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code

Potential market: Maritime market – British Royal Navy Transatlantic communication

Skepticism and CompetitionMany scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s inventions

Doubts that wireless had any application Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency Security – anyone could listen in The telegraph was initially 20 times faster

Cable companies showed no interest in wireless

The Wireless Telegraph BubbleWireless Telegraph was popular in the press

Many companies competed for stock funding

Resulted in Stock inflations - “The Wireless Telegraph bubble”

Sceptic voices started to respond

Series of articles in Success Magazine, “Fools and their money” appeared 1907

Government RegulationNo regulations controlled the airwaves

The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set international standards of communication The Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D”

C.Q. meant attention, D was for Distress SOS is ... - - - ...

Wireless CommunicationAround 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established

It was not until the development of microchips and technology for building devices, that wireless communication became practical for individuals

Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress

Also investments in land based systems

Wireless Communication

Wireless communication started early 20th century

Wireless radio was important in WWII Many innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping

Hedwig Eva Maria Kiesler 1913-2000

"Films have a certain place in a certain time period. Technology is

forever” - Hedy Lamarr

Wireless CommunicationAfter the war, use of wireless was restricted to certain profession (police, military, taxis)

Not public solutions

The ideas for mobile radio networks were developed in the 1940s Area of radio cells – Cellular network

Wireless technology and the idea of building a network of cells was understood in 1940s. Why did the public mobile phone not appear until in the late 1970s, early 80s?

Adjacent Possible

TECHNICAL

BigLimitedExpensive

CULTURAL

PoliticalCommercial

The Digital RevolutionThe enabling technologies - adjacent possible

Early Systems

The First Cell phone (1973) Name:MotorolaDyna-TacSize:9x5x1.75inches Weight:2.5pounds Display:None NumberofCircuitBoards:30Talktime:35minutes RechargeTime:10hours Features:Talk,listen,dial

Microchip

Digital Signal Processor

Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s

Technical Improvements

Cellular NetworksRadio network made up of radio cells

Tower and base

Mobile Telephone Switching Office MTSO

Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones

▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s

due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible

▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones

1G Analog

1G Analog1980s Voice only NMT, AMPS, FDMA

Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries

First international system was NMT in the Nordic

Frequency Division Multiple Access - FDMA

1G Analog

NMT in Nordics AMPS in the US TACS in UK C-Nets in West Germany Radiocom 2000 in France RTMI/RTMS in Italy

1G Analog

Big Expensive Limited

CharacteristicsBusiness users Field users

MobiraTalkman fráNokia

1G AnalogEarly users

Multiple standards – roaming is a problem

In the US this is not a problem

1G Analog

European countries decide to define common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) starts 1982

1G Analog

2G Digital

1990s Voice and data 9.6 – 14.4 Kbps GSM, TDMA

Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.

2G Digital

Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s

GMS takes off in 1991 – unites Europe

Time Division Multiple Access – TDMA

2G Digital

US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well

Digital did not add enough over analog

Texting and SIM cards was not known

2G Digital

Global System for Mobile Communication

Built on TDMA – Digital

Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards

TextingShort Message System allowed 160 letters

Became an accidental killer app – messages, chat, ring tones

First message sent 03.12.1992: “Merry Christmas”

Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones▪ Cars became the first platform for phones▪ First phones are analog▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its own– Problem with standards (history repeats itself?)▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a standard▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2▪ US does not have roaming problems and gets

stuck in G1

3G Packet Switch

Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge

1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice

The Internet is packet-switched

3G Packet Switching

2000s More data 128+ Kbps GPSR, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA

Mobile networks and the Internet start toconverge

Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 11 sec. – 1,5 min.

3G Packet Switching

More bandwidth, more applications

Email, Images, music, movies, streaming

Based on Code DivisionMultiple Access – CDMA

3G Packet Switching

3G Solutions

Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)

Built with limitations

Screen size, bandwidth restrictions Input limited – one-handed keyboard Limited memory, battery life

Fragmentation nightmare

Mobile web was limited, bad version of the web

3G Solutions

Then, in 2007, the world changed

How does the competitionrespond?

The Arrogance of the Present

iPhone hit the market in June 2007

Ok, let’s check the facts five years later

http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2

The iPhone Effect

Touch screen

Industrial strengthdesktop quality OS

Software and Userinterface

Platform for Apps

100 billion apps downloaded (2015)

App market revenue is estimated to hit $77 billion by 2017

Smartphone Market

Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck

Smartphone Market

iPhone

The end of the Unconnected

Source: http://ben-evans.com/

2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020

Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payments SocialEasier to use

= HUGEOPPERTUNITY

App vs. Web Development

The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod

Google Play is the same

Availability

Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation

Context

Mobile media users pick up their phone 40 times a day to consume content via apps/browser

Key TrendsMobile became

important in 2010 and will be a revenue

opportunity going forward

Source:MorganStanley

Mobile vs. Desktop

Source:MorganStanley

Mobile vs. Desktop

Any consumerbusiness that ignores the smartphone, will

likely become irrelevant

Source: Heavy Reading

Smartphones

Source: Skynews

SmartphonesHow long does it take to download a HD movie

3G - 1 hour4G - 40 seconds5G - 1 second

Solutions

Voice, text Apps, music, videos,

Worldwide tablet sales grew by more than 400% over a two-

year period, reaching 81.3 million units in 2012.

Tablets

The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only

one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of

screen sizes

Source:TheNextBigThing:Mobile,http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408

Next: The Internet of Things