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transcript
Land Use Change and Other Factors Affecting Climate Change Benefits of Sugarcane Ethanol in
Brazil
Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE)Task 38 Brazilian National Team Leader
Australia, November 25-26, 2013
Manoel Regis L.V. Leal
Contents
• LUC/ILUC issues– Origins– Impact assessments: uncertainties
• Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil– Countries emissions profile– Ways to control LUC
LUC and ILUC: Why Bother?
• It is required by RED, RFS2, LCFS and other legislations
• They can represent significant impacts on GHG emissions, biodiversity, food security, water balance and quality, soil organic matter (SOM)
What Causes LUC?• Land available for ag-expansion without deforestation (previously
cleared, underutilized) = 500 to 4000 million hectares(1)
This circle size reflects 1500
• Global land area impacts:[million hectares per year] – Fire = 330-430 (2) est. 380– Dev./Urban exp. (1) = 1.5– LUC bioenergy est. (3) = 0.2
too small to be visible(1) Enormous range due to pasture, grassland,
marginal land estimatesSources: (1) Kline et al. 2009; calc. by author based on FAO 2007. (2) Giglio et al. 2010; Randerson 2013. (3) Tyner et al. 2010 (3 m ha total over 14 years = 0.2 M ha each year)
Where LUC GHG Emissions Come From?
Source: Tipper, Hutchinson, Brander, 2009
LUC emissions from biofuels represent only 1% of the total!
Some Facts• Although LUC emissions from biofuels can be significant in their
LCA emissions, they represent only 1% of the global LUC emissions;
• Biofuels occupied only 0.5% (27 Mha) of the managed land in 2007 (1,500 Mha arable land plus 3,400 Mha of pasture) and 2% of the arable land in the world;
• ILUC GHG emissions calculations are still under hot debate.
LUC GHG Emissions (g CO2e/MJ)Source Maize Ethanol Soya Biodiesel
Searchinger et al. (2008) 156 165-270
CARB (2009) 45 63
EPA (2010) 47 54
Hertel et al. (2010) 40 -
Tyner et al. (2010) 21 -
IFPRI MIRAGE (2010) 54 75
Source: EC COM (2010) 811 Final
EPA – 1st round
EPA – 2nd round
Some Reasons For Differences
• Different assumptions and data base, low disaggregation levels;
• Different methodologies: co-products impacts, CGE/PE and allocation models, elasticities, yields, land price;
What Needs to Be Done?
• To reduce LUC/ILUC– Public policies to manage LU– Technology improvements to increase yields and reduce
impacts
• To improve LUC/ILUC analysis– Continue to develop better models– Produce disaggregated data for the local conditions
Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil
• Country’s LU• Country’s GHG emissions inventory• PP to reduce LUC and impacts• Technology development• GHG LCA
Land Use in Brazil
Brazilian GHG Inventory (2005)
Sector GWP (Tg CO2e) Share (%)
Energy 328.8 15.0
Industry 77.9 3.6
Agriculture 415.8 18.9
Land use change and forest 1,329.1 60.6
Waste treatment 41.0 1.9
Total 2,194.6 100.0
Source: Brazil Second Communication to UNFCCC (MCT, 2010)
Main Public Policies
• National Plan of Climate Change (PNMC)• Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC)• Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
Deforestation Reduction Commitment
Low Carbon AgricultureTechnology Area Increase (Mha)
Degraded Pasture Recovery 15
Agriculture/Livestock/Forest Integration 4
No-Tillage Cropping 8
Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5.5
Planted Forrest 3
Animal Waste Treatment 4.4
Loans available for implementing these technologies
Degraded Pasture
Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion
Source: Adami et al., 2012
Agricultural and Pasture Area Outlook
Pasture Area Outlook
Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning
Source: EMBRAPA, 2009
64.5 Mha of land availablefor sugarcane planting with low impacts.It represents only 7.5% of Brazil total area
Technology Improvements to Reduce LUC
• Sugarcane breeding: conventional and GM;• Low impact mechanization: reduce soil
compaction and allow no-tillage planting;• Crop management: precision agriculture,
increase plant density, irrigation, N fixation.
Goals: increase yields and reduce fossil energy use
October2002
Redução da Distância Entre Linhas
Row spacing (m)
Today (Brazil) Initial Target(CTBE)
Final Comments• LUC is a critical issue for biofuels;• The methods and data used to assess its impacts need
to be highly improved;• Biofuels LUC should be considered integrated with
other LUC causes; the dynamics for deforestation and other causes need to be better understood and managed;
• Public Policies and technology development are important tools to reduce LUC impacts.
THANK YOU!
regis.leal@bioetanol.org.br
Energy and GHG Balances For Sugarcane Ethanol
Source: Macedo et al., 2008
GHG Emissions OutlookEnergy Sector
Planted Area (1st crop) by Region