Post on 08-Apr-2018
transcript
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
1/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
2/81
ewoertz@princeton.edu
Office hours on Tuesdays 11am- noon
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
3/81
Readings availability
Required and Optional Readings will be on the Blackboard, except:
Background reading: Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil,
Money, and Power and Leonardo Maugeri, The Age of Oil
You are expected to read these books in parallel with class proceeding. Theyare fun to read anyhow.
Readings MUST be completed IN ADVANCE of each class.
Beyond required readings, you are encouraged to browse through optional
readings and recommended websites and read things you deem importantwith regard to the course
You are not expected to read everything: you should use your judgment inselecting what is truly important.
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
4/81
Readings
Too much to read You should:
Learn to read selectively
Make sure that you can retrieve, not necessarilyrecall, relevant information
Distill your own qualified opinion
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
5/81
Requirements
A mid term and a final
Precept participation and attendance
Short (ca. 500 words) professional memo onone out of three topics proposed
You will be able to use all course material and
sources Topics will be drawn from current developments
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
6/81
Syllabus
1) Global Energy Trends
2) Oil Reserves
3) Refining and Transporting 4) Oil Markets and OPEC
5) Oil Companies
6) Oil and the State in the Middle East
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
7/81
Syllabus
7) Economic Development and Domestic
Energy Requirements
8) Middle East Oil and International Politics 9) Natural Gas
10) Geopolitics of Natural Gas
11) Middle East Oil Production Challenges
12) Beyond Oil: Renewables and Nuclear
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
8/81
Global Energy Trends
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
9/81
Energy Market Factors
The current energy earthquake is the result of
the clash of several tectonic plates
Finance
Energy
Globalization and division of labor
Military power
Global governance
Epicenters: US/ OECD, China, Middle East
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
10/81
Energy stress lines
Insufficient investment
Huge gaps in energy consumption standards Demand growth and supply bottlenecks
Global warming
CURRENT TRENDS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
11/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
12/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
13/81
C
n
Petrochemical
Products
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
14/81
Final Energy Consumption
Source: REN 21: RenewablesGlobal Status Report 2007
Renewable Energy Share of GlobalF
inal Energy Consumption, 2006
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
15/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
16/81
C
n
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
17/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
18/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
19/81
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
20/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
21/81
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
22/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
23/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
24/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
25/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
26/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
27/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
28/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
29/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
30/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
31/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
32/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
33/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
34/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
35/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
36/81
Source: Der
Spiegel
German Energy Change Strategy: 50% Renewables by 2050 (2008:
7.1% of total energy cons./ 12.5% of electricity)
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
37/81
Source: Der Spiegel
German Renewable Energy Mix 2008 in %
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
38/81
Source: Der Spiegel
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
39/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
40/81
Challenges for German Energy Change
Concept:
Expansion of Energy Storage Capacity
Expansion of Remaining Life Period of Nuclear
Power Plants
Expansion of usage of electric cars Efficiency gains in electricity consumption of 28%
realistic?
New Electricity Highways from North (offshore
wind power) to South Constant Balancing of Variabilities in the Grid and
use of Biogas
Better Supply/ Demand Management via Smart
Grids
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
41/81
A word about scenarios 1
Global energy scenarios are complex only
few institutions can afford to produce them
The most widely quoted are IEAs and EIAs;
also to be considered: OPEC (for oil), EU
Commission, Shell; other institutions produce
occasional scenarios
BP excellent for historical data
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
42/81
A word about scenarios 2
Scenarios are not meant to be realistic images of thefuture
They extrapolate trends under certain assumptions
They allow exploring the sustainability or coherence ofpolicies
They generally contain one or more messages
They reflect the politics of the institution producing them
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
43/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
44/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
45/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
46/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
47/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
48/81
Food for Thought
$312 billion the cost of consumption
subsidies to fossil fuels in 2009.
$57 billion the cost of support given to
renewable energy in 2009.
$36 billion per year the cost of ending
global energy poverty by 2030.
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
49/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
50/81
Demand in 2035 will be 99 mbpd with the remaining 3mbpd coming from processing gains.
Non-OPEC total output will remain stable until 2025 with NGL and unconventional oil
offsetting declining crude oil production. After 2025 total Non-OPEC output will start to fall.
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
51/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
52/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
53/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
54/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
55/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
56/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
57/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
58/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
59/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
60/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
61/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
62/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
63/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
64/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
65/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
66/81
Cancun Agreement
Rich states should reduce emissions by 25 to 40 per cent from 1990levels by 2020.
A fund of US$30 billion a year will be established immediatelybetween 2010 and 2012 to help poor states combat the effects ofglobal warming.
By 2020, a US$100bn fund will be established for the samepurpose.
Most important for the ME oil producers, the summit agreed tomake CCS, a technology that captures emissions and buries them,eligible for funding under a United Nations clean technologyscheme (CDM). Until now, the programme has focused on
renewable energy, energy efficiency and limiting the emissionsfrom landfills. The proposal was submitted by Qatar in November.
Besides the UAE, the proposal enjoyed the support of Saudi Arabiaand Norway as well as coal-dependent states such as Australia.
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
67/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
68/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
69/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
70/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
71/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
72/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
73/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
74/81
Energy and Poverty
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
75/81
Energy and Poverty
Energy Poverty: Annual Deaths from
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
76/81
OECD/IEA - 2007
Energy Poverty: Annual Deaths fromIndoor Air Pollution
The number of people using dirty traditional biomass forcooking is set to grow from 2.5 billion now to 2.7 billion in
2030 absent new policies
2.8
1.6
1.2 1.3
0
1
2
3
Malaria Smoke from
biomass
Tuberculosis HIV/AIDS
millions
Source: World Health Organization
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
77/81
Energy and Poverty
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
78/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
79/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
80/81
8/7/2019 Lecture 1 OEME, Energy trends
81/81