Lesson 7 - Problem Solving & Decision Making

transcript

SESSION 7 FUNCTIONS OF A FUNCTIONS OF A SUPERVISORSUPERVISORPROBLEM SOLVING PROBLEM SOLVING AND AND DECISION MAKINGDECISION MAKING

Simple Techniques

PROBLEM SOLVINGPROBLEM SOLVING

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HAVING GOOD STRONG PROBLEM HAVING GOOD STRONG PROBLEM SOLVING SKILLS CAN MAKE A SOLVING SKILLS CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN YOUR JOB. HUGE DIFFERENCE IN YOUR JOB.

ProblemsProblems are at the center of what many people do at work every day. Whether you're solving a problem for a client (internal or external), supporting those who are solving problems, or discovering new problems to solve, the problems you face can be large or small, simple or complex, and easy or difficult.

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A fundamental part of every supervisor's role is finding ways to solve them. So, being a confident problem solver is really important to your success. Much of that confidence comes from having a good process to use when approaching a problem. With oneWith one, you can solve problems quickly and effectively. Without oneWithout one, your solutions may be ineffective, or you'll get stuck and do nothing, with sometimes painful consequences.

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4 BASIC STEPS IN PROBLEM SOLVING

1.1. Defining the problem. Defining the problem. 2.2. Generating alternatives. Generating alternatives. 3.3. Evaluating and selecting Evaluating and selecting

alternatives. alternatives. 4.4. Implementing solutions. Implementing solutions.

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The quality of the questions we ask will serve us well but it often takes some hard thinking before we get to those that really matter. Time spent thinking about the issues, then asking the right questions, is time well spent. Especially if you do this before you reach for that toolkit!

I keep six honest serving men, They taught me all I know, Their names are What and Why

and When, And How And Where And Who.

Rudyard Kipling The Serving Men

BEST MANAGEMENT TOOLS EVER?

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DEFINING THE DEFINING THE PROBLEMPROBLEMThe key to a good problem definition is ensuring that you deal with the real problem – not its symptoms. For example, if performance in your department is substandard, what might you might think is the problem with the individuals in your department ?

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Tools like AppreciationAppreciation , 5 Whys, and Root Cause Analysis, and AffinityAffinity help you ask the right questions, and work through the layers of a problem to uncover what's really going on.

SIMPLE TECHNIQUES IN SIMPLE TECHNIQUES IN PROBLEM SOLVINGPROBLEM SOLVING

1. Appreciation2. 5 Whys (Use Example)3. Cause and Effect4. Affinity Diagrams5. Flow Diagrams

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APPRECIATIONAPPRECIATIONAppreciation is a very simple but powerful

technique for extracting the maximum amount of information from a simple fact.

Starting with a fact, ask the question 'So what?' i.e. what are the implications of that fact? Keep on asking that question until you have drawn all possible inferences.Asking 'so what?' repeatedly helps you to extract all important information implied by a fact.

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Apr 28, 202312Appreciation ExampleYou've just department's budget is going to be cut by 25 percent next year. This is a huge cut, and You've just department's budget is going to be cut by 25 percent next year. This is a huge cut, and you found out that your want to make sure that you've uncovered all the implications before you start you found out that your want to make sure that you've uncovered all the implications before you start to brainstorm possible solutions. to brainstorm possible solutions.

So, you use the Appreciation Process, as follows:

Statement: Our department's budget is going to be cut 25 percent starting January 1.

So what?So what?

So the only way to accommodate that cut is to reduce our spending dramatically.

So what?So what?

So we're probably going to have to cut staff, and we'll definitely have to cut spending on supplies, research, and staff parties.

So what?So what?

So staff morale is probably going to drop, especially if I have to lay off members of our team.

So what?So what?

So I'll need to come up with plenty of low-cost ways to boost morale without spending money.

So what?So what?

So I'll need to start thinking about this tomorrow, since the new budget will go into effect in two months, and I want to be able to manage the consequences when I let the team know.

THE 5 WHYSTHE 5 WHYS The 5 Whys is a simple problem-solving technique

that helps users to get to the root of the problem quickly. Made popular in the 1970s by the Toyota Production System Very often, the answer to the first "why" will prompt another "why" and the answer to the second "why" will prompt another and so on; hence the name the 5 Whys strategy.

if it doesn't quickly give you an answer that's obviously right, then you may need more sophisticated technique problem solving techniques

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Problem: Your client is refusing to pay for the leaflets you printed for them.

1.Why? The delivery was late, so the leaflets couldn't be used.2.Why? The job took longer than we anticipated.3.Why? We ran out of printer ink.4.Why? The ink was all used up on a big, last-minute order.5.Why? We didn't have enough in stock, and we couldn't order it in quickly enough.

Solution: We need to find a supplier who can deliver ink at very short notice.

Benefits of the 5 Whys Benefits of the 5 Whys include: include:

It helps to quickly determine the root cause of a problem

It is easy to learn and apply

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CAUSE AN EFFECTWhen you have a serious

problem, it's important to explore all of the things that could cause it, before you start to think about a solution.

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CAUSE AND EFFECTCause and Effect Diagrams help you to think through causes of a problem thoroughly. Their major benefit is that they push you to consider all possible causes of the problem, rather than just the ones that are most obvious.

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CAUSE AND EFFECTA Cause-and-Effect Diagram is a

tool that helps identify, sort, and display possiblecauses of a specific problem or quality characteristic It graphically illustrates the relationship between a given outcome and all the factors that influence the outcome.

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Benefits of Using a Cause-and-Effect Diagram

• Helps determine root causes• Encourages group participation• Uses an orderly, easy-to-read format

• Indicates possible causes of variation

• Increases process knowledge• Identifies areas for collecting data

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BASIC LAYOUT OF CAUSE & EFFECT DIAGRAM

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EffectEffect

Cause Cause 11

Cause Cause 55

Cause Cause 33

Cause Cause 22

Cause Cause 44

Cause Cause 66

Cause Cause 77

Cause Cause 88

Sub Cause ASub Cause A

Sub Cause BSub Cause B

STEPS IN USING CAUSE & EFFECT

Identify the problem:Identify the problem:Write down the exact problem you face in detail. Where appropriate identify who is involved, what the problem is, and when and where it occurs. Write the problem in a box on the left hand side of a large sheet of paper. Draw a line across the paper horizontally from the box. This arrangement, looking like the head and spine of a fish, gives you space to develop ideas.

Work out the major factors involvedWork out the major factors involved:Next identify the factors that may contribute to the problem. Draw lines off the spine for each factor, and label it. These may be people involved with the problem, systems, equipment, materials, external forces, etc. Try to draw out as many possible factors as possible. If you are trying to solve the problem as part of a group, then this may be a good time for some brainstorming.

Using the 'Fish bone' analogy, the factors you find can be thought of as the bones of the fish.

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Identify possible causesIdentify possible causes:For each of the factors you considered in stage 2, brainstorm possible causes of the problem that may be related to the factor. Show these as smaller lines coming off the 'bones' of the fish. Where a cause is large or complex, then it may be best to break the it down into sub-causes. Show these as lines coming off each cause line.

Analyze your diagram:Analyze your diagram:By this stage you should have a diagram showing all the possible causes of your problem that you can think of. Depending on the complexity and importance of the problem, you can now investigate the most likely causes further. This may involve setting up investigations, carrying out surveys, etc. These will be designed to test whether your assessments are correct.

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AFFINITY DIAGRAMSAFFINITY DIAGRAMSWhether you're brainstorming ideas,

trying to solve a problem or analyzing a situation, when you are dealing with lots of information from a variety of sources, you can end up spending a huge amount of time trying to assimilate all the little bits and pieces. Rather than letting the disjointed information get the better of you, you can use an affinity diagram to help you organize it.

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Describe the problem or issue:

Generate ideas .Write each idea separately

Sort ideas into natural themes by asking:What ideas are similar?

Is this idea connected to any of the others?

Create theme cards also called affinity cards

Place all your ideas under themes/ headings

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AFFINITY EXERCISE

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THE STATEMENT THE STATEMENT “the company is not as efficient and profitable as it can be.”

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Apr 28, 20232924 hour a day production

Always short staffed

Tight cash flow

Many routes not profitable

Workers Comp higher

Advertising more

Inexperienced workers

Low morale

Numerous small invoices

Have to work overtime

Weak supervisors

Fuel more expensive

Customer service high on small amounts

Not meeting production goals

Have to lift 25 - 50 lbs for every position

Bank strict on ratios

Need more training

Suppliers not offering good terms

Oven makes it hot

Always hiring

Commodity prices rising

Not enough investment in equipment

Travel higher this quarter

Lift overhead for many jobs

Insurance expenses increasing

Have to work weekends

Only 15 minutes break time

Staff feels unappreciated

Everything self funded

Inconsistent messages from managers

Corrugated through the roof

Collection calls for small amounts

Don't have 2 days in a row off

Turnover

Work paced by conveyors

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Employee TurnoverAlways short staffed Inexperienced workersTurnoverAlways hiringHave to work overtimePhysical Work Only 15 minutes break time Have to lift 25 - 50 lbs for every positionOven makes it hotWork paced by conveyors Lift overhead for may jobsDifficult ScheduleHave to work weekends24 hour a day productionDon't have 2 days in a row offHave to work overtime

Apr 28, 202331Too many small customersMany routes not profitableNumerous small invoiceCollection calls for small amountsCustomer service high on small amounts Higher expensesCommodity prices risingInsurance expenses increasingWorkers Comp higherFuel more expensiveTravel higher this quarterAdvertising moreCorregated through the roof Management EducationNeed trainingWeak supervisorsInconsistent messages from managersNot meeting production goalsLow moraleStaff feels unappreciatedLimited Access to CaptitalNot enough investment in equipmentEverything self fundedTight cash flowSuppliers not offering good termsBank strict on ratios

OTHER TECHNIQUES IN OTHER TECHNIQUES IN PROBLEM SOLVINGPROBLEM SOLVING

1.SWOT Analysis2.PEST Analysis3.Porters Five Forces4.Boston Matrix

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SWOT ANALYSISSWOT ANALYSISStrengthsWeaknessesOpportunitiesThreats

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PEST ANALYSISPolitical:Economic:Socio-Cultural:Technological Environment:

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PORTERS FIVE FORCES With a clear understanding of

where power lies, you can take fair advantage of a situation of strength, improve a situation of weakness, and avoid taking wrong steps.

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PORTER FIVE FORCESFive Forces Analysis assumes that there are five important forces that determine competitive power in a business situation. These are:

Supplier Power: Here you assess how easy it is for suppliers to drive up prices.

Buyer Power: Here you ask yourself how easy it is for buyers to drive prices down.

Competitive Rivalry: What is important here is the number and capability of your competitors.

Threat of Substitution: This is affected by the ability of your customers to find a different way of doing what you do.

Threat of New Entry: Power is also affected by the ability of people to enter your market.

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BOSTON MATRIXTo understand the Boston Matrix you

need to understand how market share and market growth interrelate.

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Dogs: Low Market Share / Low Market GrowthDogs: Low Market Share / Low Market GrowthIn these areas, your market presence is weak, so it's going to take a lot of In these areas, your market presence is weak, so it's going to take a lot of hard work to get noticed. You won't enjoy the scale economies of the larger hard work to get noticed. You won't enjoy the scale economies of the larger players, so it's going to be difficult to make a profit. And because market players, so it's going to be difficult to make a profit. And because market growth is low, it's going to take a lot of hard work to improve the situation.growth is low, it's going to take a lot of hard work to improve the situation.

Cash Cows:Cash Cows:High Market Share / Low Market GrowthHigh Market Share / Low Market GrowthHere, you're well-established, so it's easy to get attention and exploit new Here, you're well-established, so it's easy to get attention and exploit new opportunities. However it's only worth expending a certain amount of effort, opportunities. However it's only worth expending a certain amount of effort, because the market isn't growing and your opportunities are limited.because the market isn't growing and your opportunities are limited.

Stars:Stars:High Market Share / High Market GrowthHigh Market Share / High Market GrowthHere you're well-established, and growth is exciting! These are fantastic Here you're well-established, and growth is exciting! These are fantastic opportunities, and you should work hard to realize them.opportunities, and you should work hard to realize them.

Question Marks (Problem Child):Question Marks (Problem Child):Low Market Share / High Market GrowthLow Market Share / High Market GrowthThese are the opportunities no one knows what to do with. They aren't These are the opportunities no one knows what to do with. They aren't generating much revenue right now because you don't have a large market generating much revenue right now because you don't have a large market share. But, they are in high growth markets so the potential to make money share. But, they are in high growth markets so the potential to make money is there.is there.

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DECISION MAKINGDECISION MAKING

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DECISION MAKINGAll of us have to make decisions every day. Some decisions are relatively straightforward and simple: Others are quite complex: Which of these candidates should I select for the job?

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Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills: creative development and identification of options, clarity of judgement, firmness of decision, and effective implementation.

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DECISION MAKING PROCESS Uncertainty - Many facts may not be known.

Complexity - You have to consider many interrelated factors.

High-risk consequences - The impact of the decision may be significant.

Alternatives - Each has its own set of uncertainties and consequences.

Interpersonal issues - It can be difficult to predict how other people will react.

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There are 6 Steps to Making an Effective Decision:

Create a constructive environment.Create a constructive environment.

Generate good alternatives.Generate good alternatives.

Explore these alternatives.Explore these alternatives.

Choose the best alternative. Choose the best alternative.

Check your decision. Check your decision.

Communicate your decision, and take actionCommunicate your decision, and take action.

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Create a Constructive Environment

Make sure you do the following: Establish the objective - Define what you want to

achieve.

Agree on the process - Know how the final decision will be made, including whether it will be an individual or a team-based decision.

Involve the right people - It is important in making an effective decision, and you'll want to ensure that you've consulted stakeholders appropriately even if you're making an individual decision.

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Allow opinions to be heard – If it ios a group/team decision: Encourage participants to contribute to the discussions, debates, and analysis without any fear of rejection from the group. Also, recognize that the objective is to make the best decision under the circumstances: it's not a game in which people are competing to have their own preferred alternatives adopted.

Make sure you're asking the right question - Ask yourself whether this is really the true issue. The 5 Whys technique is a classic tool that helps you identify the real underlying problem that you face.

Use creativity tools from the start - The basis of creativity is thinking from a different perspective. Do this when you first set out the problem, and then continue it while generating alternatives.

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Generate Good Generate Good AlternativesAlternatives

This step is still critical to making an effective decision. The more good options you consider, the more comprehensive your final decision will be.

When you generate alternatives, you force yourself to dig deeper, and look at the problem from different angles. If you use the mindset ‘there must be other solutions out there,' you're more likely to make the best decision possible. If you don't have reasonable alternatives, then there's really not much of a decision to make!

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Explore the AlternativesExplore the AlternativesWhen you're satisfied that you have a good selection of realistic alternatives, then you'll need to evaluate the feasibility, risks, and implications of each choice. Here, we discuss some of the most popular and effective analytical tools.

RiskIn decision making, there's usually some degree of uncertainty, which inevitably leads to risk. By evaluating the risk involved with various options, you can determine whether the risk is manageable.

ImplicationsAnother way to look at your options is by considering the potential consequences of each.

Validation Determine if resources are adequate, if the solution matches your objectives, and if the decision is likely to work in the long term.

To assess pros and cons of each option, Look at the financial feasibility of an alternative.

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Check Your DecisionWith all of the effort and hard work that goes into evaluating alternatives, and deciding the best way forward, it's easy to forget to ‘sense check' your decisions. This is where you look at the decision you're about to make dispassionately, to make sure that your process has been thorough, and to ensure that common errors haven't crept into the decision-making process. After all, we can all now see the catastrophic consequences that over-confidence, groupthink, and other decision-making errors have wrought on the world economy.

The first part of this is an intuitive stepintuitive step, which involves quietly and methodically testing the assumptions and the decisions you've made against your own experience, and thoroughly reviewing and exploring any doubts you might have.

A second part involves a check through the logical structure of check through the logical structure of the decision the decision with a view to ensuring that a well-founded and consistent decision emerges at the end of the decision-making process.

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Communicate Your Communicate Your Decision, and Move to Decision, and Move to Action!Action!

Once you've made your decision, it's important to explain it to those affected by it, and involved in implementing it. Talk about why you chose the alternative you did. The more information you provide about risks and projected benefits, the more likely people are to support the decision.

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Key PointsAn organized and systematic decision-

making process usually leads to better decisions. Without a well-defined process, you risk making decisions that are based on insufficient information and analysis. Many variables affect the final impact of your decision. However, if you establish strong foundations for decision making, generate good alternatives, evaluate these alternatives rigorously, and then check your decision-making process, you will improve the quality of your decisions.

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SIMPLE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES

BrainstormingForce Field AnalysisPMI – Plus/Minus/Interesting

Six Thinking Hats

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Force Field Analysis is a useful technique for looking at all the forces for and against a plan. It helps you to weigh the importance of these factors and decide whether a plan is worth implementing.

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USE FORCE FIELD ANALYSISEXERCISE

Imagine you are a Supervisor offering advice to your manager on the need to purchase new equipment in your factory

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DECISION MATRIX DECISION MATRIX ANALYSISANALYSIS

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A caterer needs to find a new supplier for his basic ingredients. He has four options.Factors that he wants to consider are:

Cost.Quality.Location.Reliability.Payment options.

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Factors: Cost Quality Location Reliability

Payment Options

Weights:

Supplier 1 1 0 0 1 3

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actors: Cost Quality Location Reliability

Payment Options

Weights: 4 5 1 2 3

Supplier 1 4 0 0 2 9 15

Supplier 2 0 15 2 4 3 24

Supplier 3 8 10 1 6 0 25

Supplier 4 8 15 3 6 0 32

PMI is an important Decision Making tool: The mind tools used so far in this section have focused on selecting a course of action from a range of options. Before you move straight to action on this course of action, it is important to check that it is going to improve the situation (it may actually be best to do nothing!) PMI is a useful tool for doing this.

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Example: A young professional is deciding where

to live. Her question is 'Should she move to the big city?'

She draws up the PMI table below: She scores the table as 13 (Plus) – 18

(Minus) – 1 (Interesting) = – 6 For her, the comforts of a settled rural

existence outweigh the call of the 'bright lights' – it would be much better for her to live outside the city, but close enough to travel in if necessary.

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Plus Minus Interesting

More going on (+5) Have to sell house (-6)

Easier to find new job? (+1)

Easier to see friends (+5) More pollution (-3) Meet more people?

Easier to get places (+3) Less space (-3) More difficult to get

own work done? (-4)

No countryside (-2)

More difficult to get to work? (-4)

+13 -18 -1

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'Six Thinking Hats' is an important and powerful technique. It is used to look at decisions from a number of important perspectives. This forces you to move outside your habitual thinking style, and helps you to get a more rounded view of a situation.

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THE ENDTHE END

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Lesson 7 - Problem Solving & Decision Making

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