Post on 27-Dec-2015
transcript
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
PERUPART 1: FLOODS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES—HUAYCOS--TSUNAMIS
VOLCANOES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
PERU: ON THE SOUTH AMERICAN TECTONIC PLATE
Peru and other countries along the Pacific coast of South
America are often affected by severe weather, especially
during El Niño years, that lead to flooding and land slides.
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s atmospheric, hydrospheric, and lithospheric interactions cause FLOODS
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., floods, landslides,..) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
TOWARDS FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL FLOODS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY FLOOD HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
PERU’S PERU’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
PERU’S PERU’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• FLOOD HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
FLOOD RISK FLOOD RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
FLOOD DISASTER FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF FLOOD RISKELEMENTS OF FLOOD RISKELEMENTS OF FLOOD RISKELEMENTS OF FLOOD RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
FLOOD HAZARDS:
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL FLOODS PROTECTION OF PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL FLOODS EARLY WARNING
AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
WHAT WILL HAPPEN?WHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A FLOOD INTERACT WITH
THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF PERU’S COMMUNITIES
WHAT WILL HAPPEN?WHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A FLOOD INTERACT WITH
THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF PERU’S COMMUNITIES
FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED
WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
• EROSION
• SCOUR
• MUDFLOWS
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
FLOODSFLOODS
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL FLOODS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
NOTE: PERU IS HOME TO SOME OF THE
WORLD’S POOREST OF THE POOR WHO LIVE IN VULNERABLE HOUSING CONSTRUCTED OF ADOBE, OFTEN IN FLOOD PRONE LOATIONS LIKE THE
PACIFIC COAST
PERU’S MOST NOTABLE FLOODS
THE 1982-1983 EL NINO SEASON
NW PERU: LOCATION OF PIURA AND TUMBES
IMPACTS
• During the 1982-83 El Niño, two normally dry northern Peruvian regions, Piura and Tumbes, experienced heavy rain for nearly six months.
TUMBES: IMPACTS
IMPACTS
• In some regions where there had been no rain for 10 years, adobe buildings literally melted away in the downpour.
• Roads built on sand were eroded away.
• Water, electricity and drainage systems broke down.
ADOBE: HIGHLY VULNERABLE IN FLOODS
MACHU PICCHU AREA
TEMPORARY SHELTERS FOR EVACUEES
HEALTH IMPACTS
• A survey on health during the dry, first six months of 1982 compared with the wet conditions in 1983, showed that death rates from all causes increased by more than 90 percent in 1983.
HEALTH IMPACTS
• Respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases increased sharply
• The death rate doubled in the 1-4 years-old age group.
HEALTH IMPACTS
• The flooding, combined with an increase in temperature and humidity, let to a sharp increase in mosquito populations at the same time that flood damage to property caused an increase in exposure of humans to bites.
• The result was a malaria epidemic.
PERU’S NEXT FLOOD IS INEVITABLE
PERU’S NEXT FLOOD IS INEVITABLE
• THE PERUVIANS HAVE A MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPORTANCE OF FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE SINCE THE 1982-1983 FLOOD DISASTER
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE
• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR AND
500-YEAR FLOODS• FLOOD DISASTER
SCENARIOS• DRONE PLANES FOR
MONITORING STATUS
• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR AND
500-YEAR FLOODS• FLOOD DISASTER
SCENARIOS• DRONE PLANES FOR
MONITORING STATUS