Levels of biological integration orest management and...

transcript

Hybrid ecosystem-level forest models as tools for forest management and research

Bla

nco

J.A

.1,2

, K

imm

ins J.P.1

, See

ly B

.1, W

elham

C.1

, Sco

ullar

K.3

1 D

ep. Fore

st S

cien

ces, F

aculty o

f Fore

stry

, The

Univ

ersity

of British

Colu

mbia

, 3041-2

424 M

ain M

all, V

6T 1

Z4, V

anco

uver

, B.C

.

2Conta

ct: ju

an.b

lanco

@ubc.

ca3Life

Sci

ence

Pro

gra

mm

ing L

td., N

aram

ata,

B.C

.

WHY ECOSYSTEM

WHY ECOSYSTEM-- LEVEL MODELS?

LEVEL MODELS?

Levels of biological

organization

Levels of biological

integration

Ecosystem

Understanding and

Understanding andPrediction

Prediction

Ecosystem

Community

Understanding

Population

Understanding

Individual

Understanding

and

andPrediction

Prediction

Individual

Organ systems

Understanding

Organs, tissues

Understanding

Cell

Understanding and

Understanding andPrediction

Prediction

Cell

Sub

Sub-- cellular

cellular

Understanding

Function of level

Prediction: The need for ecosystem level

Bio

logic

al k

now

ledge

is o

rgan

ized

into

lev

els

of

bio

logic

al o

rgan

izat

ion that

are

indispen

sable

for th

e des

crip

tion a

nd u

nder

stan

din

g o

f ev

ents a

nd c

onditio

ns at

eac

h

of

thes

e le

vel

s. H

ow

ever

, pre

dic

tion o

f fu

ture

even

ts a

nd c

onditio

ns

at a

ny o

f th

ese

level

s ca

n o

nly

be

succ

essf

ul in

the

conte

xt of

the

nex

t le

vel

of

bio

logic

al inte

gra

tion

above

(Row

e 1961). Indiv

idual

lev

els of bio

logic

al o

rgan

izat

ion d

efin

e only

a s

ubse

t of

the

pro

cess

es that

affec

t fu

ture

conditio

ns

and e

ven

ts a

t th

at lev

el. O

nly

the

nex

t true

level

of

inte

gra

tion ab

ove

in th

e hie

rarc

hy of

system

co

mple

xity

def

ines

th

e key

det

erm

inan

ts o

f th

e fu

ture

for th

e le

vel

of in

tere

st.

Thus, the

fate

of an

indiv

idual

org

anism

can

not be

def

ined

sole

ly o

n the

bas

is

of know

ledge

of th

e bio

logy o

f th

at indiv

idual

, or of th

e popula

tion o

r ev

en o

f th

e bio

tic

com

munity in w

hic

h it finds

itse

lf. The

popula

tion lev

el f

ails to iden

tify

all the

bio

tic

fact

ors

influen

cing that

indiv

idual

, an

d n

eith

er the

popula

tion n

or th

e co

mm

unity lev

el

addre

ss the

clim

atic

and e

dap

hic

fac

tors

and the

physica

l nat

ura

l distu

rban

ce e

ven

ts that

pla

y such

a k

ey role

in d

efin

ing the

futu

re for th

at indiv

idual

(K

imm

ins et

al. 2

005).

REFERENCES

Kimmins J.P., MaillyD., Seely B. 1999.M

odel

ling fore

st e

cosy

stem

net

prim

ary p

roduct

ion: th

e hybrid sim

ula

tion a

ppro

ach u

sed in F

OR

EC

AST. Eco

l. M

odel

. 122, 195-2

24.

Kimmins J.P., Welham C., Seely B., Meitner M., RempelR., Sullivan T. 2005.Sci

ence

in fore

stry

: W

hy d

oes

it so

met

imes

dis

appoin

t or ev

en fai

l us?

T. For. C

hro

n. 81, 723-7

34.

Rowe J.S. 1961. The

level

-of-

inte

gra

tion c

once

pt an

d e

colo

gy. Eco

logy 4

2, 420–427.

Seely B., Nelson J., Wells R., Peter B., Meitner M., Anderson A., HarshawH., Sheppard S., BunnellF.L., Kimmins H., Harrison D. 2004. The

applica

tion o

f a

hie

rarc

hic

al,

dec

isio

n-s

upport syst

em

to e

val

uat

e m

ultio

bje

ctiv

e fo

rest

man

agem

ent st

rate

gie

s: a

cas

e st

udy in n

orth-e

aste

rn B

ritish

Colu

mbia

, C

anad

a.

THE FAMILY OF MODELS developed by THE FOREST ECOSYSTEM

MANAGEMENT SIMULATION GROUP at UBC

FO

RECA

ST u

ser in

terfac

e

FORECAST

Hybrid model:

It use

s histo

rica

l/fiel

d gro

wth

dat

a to

sim

ula

te f

utu

re g

row

th &

yie

ld. This s

imula

ted g

row

th

is m

odifie

d b

y som

e bio

logic

al p

roce

sses

:

-light co

mpet

itio

n

-nutrie

nt av

aila

bility

Non-spatial stand-level model

: It d

oes

not ac

count fo

r

indiv

idual

ste

ms

and tre

e positions

in the

stan

d, but

it

does

hav

e a

tree

list an

d tra

cks in

div

idual

ste

m siz

es

Ecosystem management

model:

It

sim

ula

tes

inte

ract

ions

bet

wee

n

ecosy

stem

co

mponen

t (tre

es,

min

or veg

etat

ion -

shru

bs, h

erbs, b

ryophyte

s -an

d the

soil)

and

the

influen

ce

of

diffe

rent

man

agem

ent

pra

ctic

es a

nd n

atura

l distu

rban

ces on them

.

FO

RECA

ST g

raphic

al o

utp

ut

a. Harvest map with underlying forest types / conditions

b. Regeneration pixel groups

c. Light ecotones

a.

b.

c.

Trees

Ecotone

Open

0100200300400

0

100

200

300

400

m

Example of 16

ha block

LLEMS

Hybrid model:It w

ill use

s FO

RECA

ST to e

stim

ate

key

ecosy

stem

pro

cess

es (light &

nutrie

nt co

mpet

itio

n).

Spatial (raster-based) stand-level model

: In

div

idual

10x10 plo

ts (p

ixel

s) ar

e sim

ula

ted by FO

RECA

ST,

incl

udin

g

indiv

idual

tree

list

info

rmat

ion.

Ther

e is

bet

wee

n-p

ixel

inte

ract

ion in ter

ms

of light, litte

rfal

l an

d

seed

disper

sal, a

nd w

indth

row

risk.

Landscape ecosystem-level ecosystem: It w

ill al

low

the

use

r to

explo

re a

lter

nat

ive

VR system

s by p

roje

ctin

g the

spat

ial

and

tem

pora

l dev

elopm

ent

of

com

ple

x

cut

blo

cks

crea

ted by par

tial

har

ves

ting in

ar

eas

rangin

g

from

20 to 2

000 h

aFORCEE

FORCEE

Hybrid model:

It use

s FO

RECA

ST to

es

tim

ate

key

ecosy

stem

pro

cess

es (light &

nutrie

nt co

mpet

itio

n).

Spatially-explicit individual tree simulator: It sim

ula

tes

indiv

idual

tree

s an

d pla

nts,

thei

r sp

atia

l position an

d

effe

cts

on light, fo

rest floor

and nutrie

nt

avai

lability,

and c

reat

es a

lig

ht an

d soil "fo

otp

rint“

for ea

ch tre

e.

Ecosystem-level ecosystem:

It sim

ula

tes

inte

ract

ions

bet

wee

n

diffe

rent

ecosy

stem

co

mponen

ts

as

tree

s,

under

story

, bry

ophyte

s an

d so

il an

th

e in

fluen

ces

of

diffe

rent m

anag

emen

t pra

ctic

es o

n them

.

FO

RCEE u

ser in

terfac

e

Possible

Forest

Futures (PFF)

Hybrid model:

It

use

s

FO

RECA

ST

to

estim

ate

ecosy

stem

key

pro

cess

es.

Non-spatial

watershed-level

model

: M

anag

emen

t sc

enar

io

anal

ysis

tool

for

educa

tion,

exte

nsion

and

man

agem

ent

gam

ing.

PFF u

ser in

terfac

e

ForW

aDy

ForW

aDy

Stand-level model

: Sim

ula

tion of

hydro

logic

al fluxes

and

gen

eral

ized

en

ergy

bal

ance

. M

ulti

layer

ed

repre

senta

tion o

f ver

tica

l fluxes

in a

dai

ly tim

e step

.

New

hydro

logic

al

subm

odel

for

FO

RECA

ST,

with

feed

bac

k o

n g

row

th rat

es a

nd d

ecom

position rat

es.

Dev

eloped

using the

Ste

lla®

model

ling fra

mew

ork

WHY HYBRID MODELS?

Model output is only valid if:

The future growing conditions are sufficiently similar to those

that existed during the development of the sample stands

on which the models are based

yield

time

Past

Present

Better growing

conditions

Similar growing

conditions

Poorer growing

conditions

harvest

Future?

Models under a changing future

‘Histo

rica

l bio

assa

y’

model

s bas

ed o

n e

xper

ience

are

val

id f

or

the

spec

ies

involv

ed a

nd the

par

ticu

lar se

t of bio

tic

and a

bio

tic

gro

wth

conditio

ns

that

per

tain

ed

over

the

per

iod o

f gro

wth

. H

ow

ever

, if c

han

ges

in f

utu

re m

anag

emen

t re

gim

es o

r

hum

an im

pac

ts on th

e bio

physica

l en

vironm

ent

signific

antly al

ter

futu

re gro

wth

conditio

ns, the

pre

dic

tions of th

e bio

assa

y a

re u

nlikel

y to b

e ac

cura

te.

Pro

cess

-bas

ed m

odel

s em

piric

ally

der

ived

from

re

lationsh

ips

bet

wee

n a

series

of in

dep

enden

t var

iable

s an

d tre

e gro

wth

hav

e gre

at h

euristic

val

ue,

but m

ost o

f

them

are

not ec

osy

stem

-lev

el m

odel

s an

d a

re r

arel

y u

sed in p

ract

ical

applica

tions

in

fore

stry

, prim

arily bec

ause

w

e do not

know

en

ough ab

out

the

key

ec

osy

stem

pro

cess

es a

nd thei

r in

tera

ctio

ns to

mak

e ac

cura

te p

redic

tions.

A third, ‘h

ybrid’

appro

ach h

as b

een d

evel

oped

whic

h a

ttem

pts to c

om

bin

e

the

stre

ngth

s of th

e oth

er tw

o a

ppro

aches

and ther

eby c

om

pen

sate

for th

eir in

div

idual

wea

knes

ses. T

hes

e m

odel

s ta

ke

the

yie

ld p

redic

tions from

a h

isto

rica

l bio

assa

y m

odel

or ra

w fie

ld d

ata

and m

odify them

acc

ord

ing to a

sim

ula

tion o

f th

e te

mpora

l var

iation

in a

vai

lable

lig

ht an

d n

utrie

nts (K

imm

ins et

al. 1

999).

Projection

Interpretation

Forest

Forest --level Timber Supply Model

level Timber Supply Model

(ATLAS)

Wildlife Habitat Supply Model

(( SimFor

SimFor ))

Polygon

Polygon-- Based

Based

Raster

Raster --Based

Based

HIERARCHICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Select

treatment

Stand

Stand-- Level Model

Level Model

(FORECAST)

Stand

Stand-- Level Visualization Model

Level Visualization Model

(SVS)

Landscape

Landscape-- Level Visualization Model

Level Visualization Model

(CALP Forester)

Non

Non-- Spatial

Spatial

Visualization

Individual trees represented

Links between models

The

multi-re

sourc

e nat

ure

of

moder

n fo

restry

dem

ands

that

m

anag

ers

asse

ss the

pote

ntial

im

pac

ts o

f th

eir

dec

isio

ns

on a

bro

ad r

ange

of

fore

st a

ttribute

s

rela

ted to

bio

div

ersity

, tim

ber

pro

duct

ion,

carb

on stora

ge,

re

crea

tion an

d oth

er

val

ues

.

The

hie

rarc

hic

al stru

cture

fa

cilita

tes

pro

ble

m an

alysis

acro

ss diffe

rent

pla

nnin

g lev

els

(i.e

tact

ical

vs. s

trat

egic

) by a

llow

ing for th

e ad

ditio

n o

f co

mple

xity

wher

e w

arra

nte

d an

d nec

essa

ry.

More

over

, th

e m

odula

r ap

pro

ach al

low

s fo

r

incr

ease

d f

lexib

ility w

ithin

a D

SS a

s it f

acilitat

es t

he

use

of

diffe

rent

model

s to

addre

ss spec

ific

pro

ble

ms or ec

osy

stem

types

(See

ly e

t al

2004).

Individual trees or stands represented

Levels of biological integration orest management and...

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