Post on 13-Jan-2016
transcript
Linda Joyce Rocky Mountain Research Station,
USDA FS
September 4, 2008
Climate Change and Climate Change and RangelandsRangelands
Information for AdaptationInformation for Adaptation
Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)
9:00 am — 11:00 pm: Presentations by
David Williams and Steve Gray (Univ.
of WY), A
lan Knapp (CO State Univ.),
Jack Morgan (USDAARS)
Information from Previous Talks
• Information on the effects of climate change on western rangelands
• Developed through experimentation, testing hypotheses, analyzing data, exploring results
• The scientific process – takes data and develops information.
Information for Adaptation
• Planning for Climate Change– Assessing vulnerability
• How might this be explored?
– Adaptive Capacity • What influences this?
• Adaptation
• Reflections on Past Experiences– And the process of taking data to develop
information to make management decisions
Adaptation to Climate Change
Takes place through adjustments
to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience
in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events
To minimize the impact or harm and
To capitalize on opportunities.
IPCC WGII 2007
Confederation Bridge, CanadaConstructed 1 metre higher to account for climate change
Land acquisition program
Increased use of artificial snow by Alpine ski industry
Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
• Magnitude of Impact
• Timing
• Persistence or Reversibility
• Likelihood of Impacts
• Capacity for Adaptation
• Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic
• Importance: ecological, social, economic
IPCC WGII 2007
Data to Identify Vulnerabilities
Timing – sudden versus gradual
ABRUPT CHANGE
Dieback of pinon in pinon-juniper woodlands – insects and drought in the SouthwestLeft – 2002, Right - 2004
Data to Identify Vulnerabilities
Inouye et al 2000
Nat
ion
al G
eog
rap
hic
GRADUAL CHANGEAverage snowmelt date has not shifted. Marmots emerging 3 weeks earlier from hibernation than a few decades ago. Still snow covered fields on their emergence date.Breashers et al 2007
IPCC WGII 2007
Persistence and reversibility of impacts
Ross Ice Shelf – Iceberg B15 Calving Credit: Jacques Descloitres, Modis Land Science Team
Data to Identify Vulnerabilities
When does ‘drought’ become ‘climate’?
Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
• Magnitude of Impact
• Timing
• Persistence or Reversibility
• Likelihood of Impacts
• Capacity for Adaptation
• Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic
• Importance: ecological, social, economic
IPCC WGII 2007
Adaptation
• Reactive
• Anticipatory
ADAPTATION: REACTIVE
• Capacity is influenced by:– Topography and micro-refugia– Soil traits– Existing biodiversity – Pre-existing stresses, e.g. invasive species,
air pollution, fragmentation of the landscape – Status of ecosystem, e.g., early to late
succession– And on the characteristics of the social
system interacting with, or dependent on, the ecosystem
Capacity for Adaptation: Ecosystems
ADAPTATION: REACTIVE, ANTICIPATORY
• Adaptive Capacity in human systems is influenced by local factors: – Available and appropriate skills – Available financial resources – Local support: family, stakeholder, etc.
• General factors: Socioeconomic and political– Federal laws – Federal policies and regulations– Globalization of markets– Commodity market conditions
Capacity for Adaptation: Humans
BUILDING THE TOOLBOXBUILDING THE TOOLBOX
No single solution fits all
Range of options for short & long term
Mix and match tools
Capitalize on experience Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-
go), innovative, risk-taking, course-
correcting
Synthesis and Assessment Report 4.4 ‘Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-sensitive Resources and Ecosystems’ http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc
Management
‘Win-Win’ Strategy – Address Current Stressors
• Altered Disturbances– Drought, fire, insects
• Habitat Fragmentation and Loss
• Invasive Plants, Animals, and Pathogens
• Air and Water Pollution
• Legacy of Past Management
Current Stressors
• Current Management to address these stressors
• Experience to draw upon
Information for Adaptation
• Information on the effects of climate on western rangelands: scientific process
• Operators, Resource Managers, Decision-makers – also have a process of taking data and developing information
• Information used in decision making for natural resource management
Reflection of Experiences as Resource Managers
• Have you ever experienced a weather-related event where you had to change your management actions and maybe goals?
• What type of information was needed?
• What would you do differently?
drought
• Setting – National Forest, City watershed on the National Forest,
• Focus – Weather suggesting drought
• In place – Agreement on how forest and water management would be affected by the drought
Realization – ‘Drought’ was not defined
Reflection of Past Experiences
One Point in TimeUnusual Event
Perhaps no long-term changein resource management actions
Valuable Experience
Use of Climate or Weather Data to make a Change in your
Operation, Natural Resource Management
• What climate data did you use – precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index?
• What management actions were adjusted?
• Did you need additional information?
• Would you do something different now?
Temporal constraints associated with using environmental data or information to make decision in
management
• In making decisions about grazing management or wildlife management, how far ahead of a change in operation or management do you need the data?
• How does the uncertainty or variability of that information influence your risk management?
Have you incorporated information on anticipated changes in rangeland ecosystems associated with future
climate change?
• What types of information on anticipated changes?
• What was your source?
• What is your confidence?
Describe a time when there were differences of opinion between public land managers and private ranchers concerning the removal of livestock from public lands during a drought?
• What types of information would have been helpful for reaching a solution that would have been acceptable to all?
• How will a more uncertain and variable climate challenge the management of public lands?
What science needs to be brought to the table?
• What are the key issues from a management perspective – information needs?
• What are the key issues from a research perspective – new research challenges?
• Where do we (research, management) go next?
Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)