Local nuclear war, global starvation Brian Toon

© 2009 Scientific American Inc

New nuclear states continue to appear

Even small nuclear states can have manywarheads

NWSDeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)

Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998

South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?

North Korea, 10?, 2007

India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998

Destructive power of nuclear weapons:

Hiroshima, ground zero

Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast

Fire storm in Hiroshima about three hours after the explosionhttp://www.atomicarchive.com

An oily, sooty, radioactive “black rain” fell on Hiroshima after the explosion

Smoke is observed to go into the upper troposphere after large fires

The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb

28 May 2001Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)

Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

Smoke injected into upper troposphere from regional conflict rapidly spreads

Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history

Mann et al.,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759 (1999); http://www.cru.uae.ac.uk/cru/data.temperature

Temperature decline following regional nuclear war exceeds temperature changes

during the last 1000 years

Year

Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Shortened by up to 1 Month

Precipitation drops 10% globally, more locally

60

40

20

0

Alt

itu

de,

km

Stratospheric Temperatures Increase

Global ozone loss following a regional war creates a near global ozone hole.

Mills et al. PNAS, 2008

SummaryA regional nuclear war would:

• Reduce temperatures to lowest levels in 1000 years and shorten growing seasons at midlatitudes

• Reduce rainfall in the tropics

• Destroy the ozone layer at mid- and high latitudes

• Erupted April 1815• -0.7 degrees C temperature drop• Dramatic shortening of growing season

Tambora Volcano

Chronic Malnutrition Today

• 1,800-2,200 calories•minimum daily requirement

• 800 million people at or below•this level of daily intake

Great Bengal Famine of 1943

• Food production declined only 5%• Actually 13% higher than 1941

•when there was no famine• 3 million people died

International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

1 billion deadfrom starvation

alone?

Epidemic Disease• Plague• Cholera• Malaria• Typhus

…further use of nuclear weapons?

Nuclear Warheads peaked in 1986

R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2009).

Smoke generated by weapons of 100 kt yield

China

Russia

U.S.

Robock et al.,2007

Surface temperature declines after global conflict to ice age conditions

Year

Ice age temperatures

Daily minimum temperatures for Iowa and the Ukraine

remain below freezing for a year or more

after global war

Robock et al.,2007

Precipitation for Iowa after a global war reduced up to 90%

SummaryThe use of the SORT or START arsenals

would:• Reduce global temperatures to ice age

conditions

• Reduce global precipitation by 50%