Post on 15-Apr-2017
transcript
Logistics Internship Final PresentationArjun Kumar – Demand Planning
05/03/2023
2
AgendaDemand Planning
Forecasting Project
Takeaways & Growth
3
My Internship
Demand Planning
WOD Activity
Goals• Be a successful
forecaster• Create a
framework for future forecasters
• Gain a keen understanding of ABI Logistics
05/03/2023
4
How I LearnedPrimary• WOD forecasting tasks
& responsibilities• Sales, management,
and accuracy meetings• KPI & trend tracking,
DP troubleshooting, and final project
Ancillary• Experiences with
coworkers, interns, support, and systems• Interactions with
corporate leadership• Knowledge
resources & training
5
Demand PlanningKey Concepts
• Connect the moving parts of sales, forecasting, planning, and product trends
• Understand the determinants of a forecast
• Make well-informed decisions & mitigate supply chain loss
• Increase accuracy
05/03/2023
6
WOD Forecasting - Timeline
Week 1-3
• Began Medford & Salem Forecasting• Basic Trend Analysis & OOS Resolving
Week 4-6
• Added Portland & Eugene Forecasting• CBA, Accuracy Analysis, 2nd-Order Problem
Solving
Week 7-10
• Supply Chain Risk Analysis & Target Evaluation• Logistics Troubleshooting & Final Project
7
WOD Forecasting - ToolsBudNET & CBA Portal• Adjusting and revising PDCN forecasts in line with
sales & brand trends• Pull WOD reports, submit logistics requests, and
order PDCNs Supply Chain Systems (BIC/PLN/SSM)• Analyze & report sales and inventory data at a
micro level• Track shipments, adjust loads, information sharingQlikview• Review KPI targets and build accuracy reports
8
Forecast Accuracy AnalysisQlikview Dashboard
Accuracy Deck
Wholesaler Forecast Sales W 5 MAPE W 5 Weight W 5 Liquid +/- W 5 Liquid %
Eugene, OR 4,522 4,577 13.0% 45.4% -55 1.2%Medford, OR 1,880 1,864 14.5% 18.5% 16 0.9%Salem, OR 1,560 1,601 14.2% 15.9% -40 2.6%
Portland, OR 2,080 2,043 19.2% 20.3% 36 1.8%
9
Forecast Accuracy AnalysisForecast Accuracy – 6 Week – Oregon WOD Avg.
10
Supply Chain Risk AnalysisCentral Region – Package Report by WOD
• Information Sharing – Allows multiple ABI teams to collaborate and mitigate supply chain loss & OOS• Inventory
Coordination – Product transfers reduce need for adding shipments
11
WOD ForecastingKey Successes• Sustained Oregon WOD Accuracy (Six Week Target &
Actual)
• Supply Chain Risk Mitigation – Denver Stella Artois• Identified $345,611 worth of potential SCL
• Eugene Sylmar – Montejo transfer of 450 Cases• Alleviated critical OOS Captured missed sales
• Created critical tools for future Oregon forecasting
Salem 78.0% 78.3%
Portland 83.3% 79.7%
Eugene 85.0% 84.1%
Medford 81.1% 81.6%
05/03/2023
12
Forecasting Final Project
13
Business DescriptionMission
Deliver world-class forecasts while managing complexity to fully enable a path for reaching our shared dream to be the best zone in
the best beer company in a better world.
Inputs
• BudNET Resources
• Sales & Product Data
• WOD Information• Demand Planning
Knowledge
Outputs
• Increased Forecast Accuracy
• Reduced Supply Chain Risk
• Standardized Excellence
Processes
• Forecast Revising• Inventory
Planning• WOD
Collaboration• Data Analysis
SDCA
14
Process Mapping• Studied SuEP process
mapping & standardization
15
Standards Creation & Execution
M T W TH F
x x x xx x x xx x xx x xx x x x
xxxx
xx
x
xxx
xxx
Outlook
WSF ReportsWeekly WOD Analysis
Weekly Update EmailCBA Forecasting SOP
Outlook
BudNET Splash Page
Weekly IP Meeting TOR
Weekly Report Sample
SOP
Forecasting CalculatorWeekly WOD Analysis
BudNET/Qlikview
BudNETQlikview - MAPE Data
FridayFridayFridayFriday
ThursdayThursdayThursday
Daily
MondayMondayMondayMonday
TuesdayTuesdayTuesdayTuesday
WednesdayWednesdayWednesday
Review weekly update objectivesReview CBA Forecasting
Disperse Supply Chain Loss Follow Up Email
Complete all necessary WOD forecasting
Create and disperse Supply Chain Loss Report
Conduct weekly Inventory Planning Meeting
Build accuracy deck for Weekly Accuracy Review
Follow up on all OOS requests & communicate results
Wed
nesd
ay
Frequency
Thur
sday
Frid
ay
Review Daily OOS ReportCheck Status of Logistics Requests
Review BudNET Splash Page
Review inventory levels to track OOSCreate & Submit OOS Logistics Requests
Consolidate new PDCN/promo info
Compile forecast/sales report to track PDCN movement
Forecast major volume product familiesPull brand trends to prioritize high error
Complete Oregon WOD forecasting by 5pm CSTOutline action items for meetings/calls
Cross-check BudNET data with Qlikview data
Input Week 0 Friday Updates in BudNET
Review Daily Update Objectives
DailyDailyDailyDaily
Daily Forecasting Update Email
SOP
Forecasting Workflow
Routine ActivitiesDay Resource
Daily
Mon
day
Tues
day
SOP
Daily OOS Email ReportBSC Ticket #
BudNETDaily Update Email
Email Template
WOD Inventory Wkst
Completed?
50% 33%100% 78% 100%
16
Routine Review ProcessesCriticality & RACI Matrices
Activity/Task Customer Complaints
Impact on Results Accidents
Time / Difficulty
Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET 3 5 1 5 14 Y
Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain Loss Risk Report 1 5 1 5 12 Y
Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy Review Deck 1 5 1 5 12 Y
Submission of OOS Logistics Requests 3 5 1 3 12 Y
Monitoring of Daily OOS Report 3 3 1 1 8 N
Innovation Product Ordering 1 3 1 3 8 Y
CBA Product Forecasting 1 5 1 3 10 Y
New Product Forecasting 1 3 1 3 8 N
Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings 3 5 1 5 14 Y
Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet 1 1 1 1 4 N
Review comments/e-mails to see if there is a promo change or event 1 3 1 1 6 Y
Follow Up on BSC Tickets 3 5 1 1 10 Y
Attend Weekly Inventory Power Hour 3 3 1 1 8 Y
Attend Weekly Sales Review 1 1 1 1 4 N
Daily Forecasting Team Meeting 1 3 1 1 6 N
Criticality Level (1, 3, or 5)Criticality Matrix - WOD Forecasting
Total SumCritical?
(Y/N)
Deliverable/Role ForecastingDemand Planning WODs BSC
Adjusting Forecasts in BudNET R I/C I C
Creation & Dispersion of Supply Chain Loss Risk Report R/A C/I I -
Creation of Weekly Forecast Accuracy Review Deck R/A C/I - -
Submission of OOS Logistics Requests R/A I I/C A
Monitoring of Daily OOS Report A I C/I -
Innovation Product Ordering R/A C C/I I
CBA Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I
New Product Forecasting R/A C C/I I
Weekly Inventory Planning Meetings R/A C R/C/I I
Input Week 0 Friday Updatesin BudNet R/A C I -
Weekly Inventory Power Hour I I R/C I
Weekly Sales Review I I R/C I
RACI Matrix - WOD Forecasting RACI Category (R, A, C, and/or I)
05/03/2023
17
TakeawaysLogistics Demand Planning Forecasting
Logistics• Ownership & teamwork
combined with defined goals equals success
Demand Planning• Second-order problem solving is
key to avoiding first-order problem solving
Forecasting• Every decision should be
validated by as much data as possible
05/03/2023
18
GrowthPersonal DevelopmentNAZ Headquarters• Valuable chance to be at the
heart of operations & decision making
Corporate Leadership• Positive influencers and role
models everywhere (Hazlett, Runyon, Huskisson)
Educational Experience• Refined my knowledge and
abilities in a corporate & logistics setting
05/03/2023
19
Summer @ ABInBev• Met and befriended many
awesome & talented interns• Engaged in A-B product
testing
• Explored the Lou!• Participated in Intern
Challenges
05/03/2023
20
Thank you!
Questions?