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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
June 2009
Prepared by:Economic Services
National Cotton Council
U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
June 2009
Prepared by:Economic Services
National Cotton Council
Macroeconomic Environment
U.S. Real GDP Growth
Percent
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 09
Dollars per Barrel
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160
Jan
-04
Mar
-04
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
Dec
-04
Feb
-05
May
-05
Au
g-0
5
No
v-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jun
-07
Sep
-07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Feb
-09
May
-09
U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
Cents per Gallon
80110140170200230260290320350380410440
Jan
-04
Mar
-04
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
Dec
-04
Mar
-05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Feb
-06
May
-06
Au
g-0
6N
ov-
06F
eb-0
7M
ay-0
7A
ug
-07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08O
ct-0
8Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09Ju
n-0
9
U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Civilian Unemployment Rate
$ Billions
-1,800
-1,400
-1,000
-600
-200
200
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Jan-09 Mar-09
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)
$ Billion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
04 07 10 13 16 19
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
$ Billion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
04 07 10 13 16 19
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
CBO Ag Baseline Spending
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16W
orld US
Indi
a
Chi
na
2007 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
Jul
Jan
-05
Jul
Jan
-06
Jul
Jan
-07
Jul
Jan
-08
July
Jan
-09
July
Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200
Jan
-95
Jul
Jan
-96
Jul
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
Jul
Jan
-05
Jul
Jan
-06
Jul
Jan
-07
Jul
Jan
-08
Jul
Jan
-09
Crops Livestock
Ag Prices Received Index
$ Billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Market Government Emergency
U.S. Net Farm Income
U.S. Cotton Supply
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Au
g
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Dec 08 Dec-09
December Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
825
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 08 Dec-09
December Corn FuturesCents per Bushel
580
680
780
880
980
1080
1180
1280
1380
1480
1580
1680
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Nov 08 Nov-09
November Soybean FuturesCents per Bushel
SoutheastSoutheast 1,923 1,923 1,880 1,880 -2.2-2.2Mid-SouthMid-South 1,876 1,876 1,675 1,675 -10.7 -10.7 SouthwestSouthwest 5,205 5,205 5,115 5,115 -1.7 -1.7 WestWest 292 292 235 235 -19.5 -19.5
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 9,2969,296 8,9058,905 - 4.2- 4.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 174 174 149 149 -14.1 -14.1
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 9,470 9,470 9,054 9,054 - 4.4- 4.4
SoutheastSoutheast 1,923 1,923 1,880 1,880 -2.2-2.2Mid-SouthMid-South 1,876 1,876 1,675 1,675 -10.7 -10.7 SouthwestSouthwest 5,205 5,205 5,115 5,115 -1.7 -1.7 WestWest 292 292 235 235 -19.5 -19.5
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 9,2969,296 8,9058,905 - 4.2- 4.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 174 174 149 149 -14.1 -14.1
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 9,470 9,470 9,054 9,054 - 4.4- 4.4
2009 U.S. Cotton Plantings
20082008 20092009 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
20082008 20092009 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
Thousand AcresThousand AcresThousand AcresThousand Acres
*2009 *2009 NASS June Acreage ReportNASS June Acreage Report
SoutheastSoutheast 778 778 761 761 -2.2-2.2Mid-SouthMid-South 759 759 678 678 -10.7 -10.7 SouthwestSouthwest 2,106 2,106 2,070 2,070 -1.7 -1.7 WestWest 118 118 95 95 -19.5 -19.5
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 3,7623,762 3,6043,604 - 4.2- 4.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 70 70 60 60 -14.1 -14.1
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 3,832 3,832 3,664 3,664 - 4.4- 4.4
SoutheastSoutheast 778 778 761 761 -2.2-2.2Mid-SouthMid-South 759 759 678 678 -10.7 -10.7 SouthwestSouthwest 2,106 2,106 2,070 2,070 -1.7 -1.7 WestWest 118 118 95 95 -19.5 -19.5
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 3,7623,762 3,6043,604 - 4.2- 4.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 70 70 60 60 -14.1 -14.1
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 3,832 3,832 3,664 3,664 - 4.4- 4.4
2009 U.S. Cotton Plantings
20082008 20092009 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
20082008 20092009 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
Thousand HectaresThousand HectaresThousand HectaresThousand Hectares
*2009 *2009 NASS June Acreage ReportNASS June Acreage Report
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
U.S. Cotton Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Beg Stocks Imports Production
U.S. Cotton Supply
U.S. Cotton Demand
Fiber Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Cotton Other
Net Domestic Fiber Consumption
Percent
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
Fiber Equivalents
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Retail Imported
Components of Retail Cotton Consumption
Fiber Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
U.S. Cotton Textile Imports
U.S. Cotton Content in Textile ImportsFiber Equivalents
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Mill
ion
Bal
es
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
ns
CBINAFTAROWNon-U.S. Cotton
U.S. Trade With Mexico
0
1
2
3
4
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Imports Exports
U.S. Trade with CBI
0
1
2
3
4
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Imports Exports
U.S. Imports from China
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ale
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
Exports Mill Use Production
U.S. Cotton Production & Use
The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
-2.2
-0.2
1.8
3.8
5.8
7.8
9.8
11.8
13.8
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
China Cotton Supply & Use
World Cotton Production
0
25
50
75
100
125
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08e
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
Cotton Polyester
World Fiber Mill Use
*PCI
Cents per Pound
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan
-04
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
No
v-04
Mar
-05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Au
g-0
6
No
v-06
Mar
-07
Jun
-07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Au
g-0
8
No
v-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
"A" FE Index
Asian Polyester Staple
Fiber Prices
World Cotton Mill Use
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Stocks Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & Use
U.S. Cotton Exports
0
2
46
8
10
12
1416
18
20
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
1
2
3
4
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
World Cotton Ending Stocks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f
Mil
lio
n B
ales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
n M
etri
c T
on
s
U.S. ROW China
39 4144
60 56 59
65 61
58
43
52
4436
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Percent
Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 10.04 6.60Production 12.82 13.25Imports 0.01 0.01
Total Supply 22.86 19.86
Mill Use 3.55 3.50Exports 12.70 10.80
Total Offtake 16.25 14.30
Ending Stocks 6.60 5.60Stocks-to-Use Ratio 40.6% 39.2%
2008/09 2009/10
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks 2.19 1.44Production 2.79 2.89Imports 0.00 0.00
Total Supply 4.98 4.33
Mill Use 0.77 0.76Exports 2.77 2.35
Total Offtake 3.54 3.12
Ending Stocks 1.44 1.22Stocks-to-Use Ratio 40.6% 39.2%
2008/09 2009/10
Beginning Stocks 62.08 61.16Production 107.09 106.26Imports 28.34 32.65
Mill Use 110.50 113.42Exports 28.34 32.65
Ending Stocks 61.16 56.54Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%
Beginning Stocks 62.08 61.16Production 107.09 106.26Imports 28.34 32.65
Mill Use 110.50 113.42Exports 28.34 32.65
Ending Stocks 61.16 56.54Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%
World Supply and DemandMillion Bales
2008/09 2009/10
Beginning Stocks 13.53 13.32Production 23.33 23.15Imports 6.17 7.11
Mill Use 24.07 24.71Exports 6.17 7.11
Ending Stocks 13.32 12.32Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%
Beginning Stocks 13.53 13.32Production 23.33 23.15Imports 6.17 7.11
Mill Use 24.07 24.71Exports 6.17 7.11
Ending Stocks 13.32 12.32Stocks-to-Use Ratio 55.3% 49.9%
World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
2008/09 2009/10
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CottonseedCottonseed
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers