Post on 13-Oct-2020
transcript
Making Sense of Nonsense:An Analytical View of Eastern Idaho’s
Labor Market
Data Revolution
• Every Minute:
204 Million email messages 4 Million Google search queries 417,000 TINDER swipes 277,000 new tweets 72 hrs. new video to YouTube
What is “Big Data”?
Source: Domo web analytics
DATA PRODUCTIONWILL BE 44 TIMES GREATERIN 2020 THAN IT WAS IN 2009
What is “Big Data”?
Source: CSC
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
False confessions may lead to more errors
in evidence!!!
Source: Time Magazine
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
Freeway air is bad for mice brains!!!
Source: Time Magazine
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
Pigeons can discriminate between “good” and “bad”
paintings by children!!!Source: Time Magazine
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
Leaving a third of your food on the plate can cut calories by 33%!!!
Source: Time Magazine
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
University of Michigan• 1.3 million records spanning 10 years• If bitten by cat, 41.3% chance of being
diagnosed with Depression• 50% chance for women
Source: Time Magazine
Not-So-Noteworthy Findings
Cats are the DEVIL!!!
Source: Time Magazine
Current Labor Market Conditions
Industry Makeup: 2015
1%
4%
3%
5%
6%
9%
9%
11%
14%
12%
17%
1%
3%
3%
3%
5%
6%
9%
10%
14%
17%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Information
Financial Activities
Transportation…
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Leisure Hospitality
Health Care
Professional Business…
Trade
Ran
ked
by
Shar
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f Em
plo
ymen
t
Eastern Idaho
Idaho
Source: IDOL, QCEW 2015
Industry Wage by Share of Emp.
$34,864
$42,486
$35,151
$36,446
$37,887
$37,533
$33,300
$13,868
$34,464
$62,114
$31,928
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Information
Financial Activities
Transportation…
Natural Resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Leisure Hospitality
Health Care
Professional Business…
Trade
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
Ran
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by
Shar
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f Em
plo
ymen
t
Source: IDOL, QCEW 2015
Employment by Wage – E.I.
7%
22%
12%
8%
8%
7%
5%
9%
7%
4%
3%
2%
2%
4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$51 or more
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2014
Avg. Wage:US: $51,360Idaho: $38,790EI: $37,530
9.0%
17.4%
22.7%
12.8%
49.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
U.S. Idaho Bonneville County Idaho Falls Ammon
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, EMSI
Population Growth: 2004-2014
Source: EMSI
Population Growth: 2004-2014
2.6%
12.5%
26.8%
7.1%11.4%
17.9%
27.8%
45.5%42.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Nation Idaho BonnevilleCounty
15 and under 16-64 65 and over
Source: EMSI
Population Growth: 2004-2024
4.1%
17.3%
37.0%
6.7% 13.1%20.5%
65.2%
100.5%90.3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
US Idaho Bonneville County
15 and under 16-64 65 and over
10.0% 9.7%
7.1%
5.0%3.8%
3.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
U.S. Idaho Bonneville County
Recession High Mar-16
Unemployment Rates
Oct 2009
June 2009
Nov 2010
Source: www.bls.gov
Tightening Labor Market
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Eastern Idaho’s Labor MarketTotal Unemployed Total Job Openings
Source: Help Wanted Analytics, Idaho Department of Labor
Tightening Labor Market
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Unemployed to Job Openings:Eastern Idaho
Source: HWOL, IDOL
Industry NeedsSkill gaps:• Mathematics• Writing• Engineering• Machining• Welding• Programming
• Soft Skills
Industry Needs
Socially Awkward!
Soft Skills GapAwkward Handshakes
Soft Skills GapPersonal Space
Soft Skills GapDon’t Pay Attention
Soft Skills Gap
Soft Skills Gap
Millennials
Millennials
Millennials
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
50%
16%
27%
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
13%
38%
26%
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
33%
44%
17%
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
23%
35%37%
Source: Goldman Sachs
Millennials
Source: Goldman Sachs
U.S. Labor Force by Generation
Source: Pew Research Center
Idaho Projections
Projections Explained by a Millennial
Projections Explained by a Millennial
Idaho Jobs and Workforce Growth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Workforce: Ages 16-64 Job Growth
Workforce Gap
109,000
17,600
91
,40
0
Population Forecasts - EMSI August 2014 and Jobs Forecast – Idaho Department of Labor, August 2014
Industry Projections: 2012-2022• Percent Growth
Source: IDOL
4.0%10.3%
11.0%12.5%
13.5%14.2%14.4%
15.9%17.3%
18.1%19.5%
24.2%26.5%
44.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Public Administration
Educational Services
Manufacturing
Transport/Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Natural Resources & Mining
Information
Professional/Business Services
Utilities
Financial Activities
Retail Trade
Leisure/Hospitality
Health Care/Social Assistance
Construction
14%
18%
10%
15%
16%
18%
24%
11%
26%
13%
44%
16%
7%
10%
14%
16%
18%
19%
20%
21%
23%
39%
53%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
InformationFinancial Activities
EducationNatural Resources
Professional Business…Trade
Leisure HospitalityManufacturing
Health CareTransportation…
ConstructionTotal
Projected Job Growth by Industry: 2012-2022
Eastern Idaho
Idaho
Regional Comparison
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
2012-2022 Industry Projections
7%
10%
14%
16%
18%
19%
20%
21%
23%
39%
53%
19%
Information
Financial Activities
Education
Natural Resources
Professional Business…
Trade
Leisure Hospitality
Manufacturing
Health Care
Transportation…
Construction
Total Industry
Eastern Idaho’s Growth Rate by Industry
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
2012-2022 Industry Projections
90
280
460
930
940
1,080
1,540
1,980
2,310
2,500
2,990
16,540
Information
Financial Activities
Natural Resources
Transportation…
Manufacturing
Education
Leisure Hospitality
Construction
Health Care
Professional Business…
Trade
Total Industry
Eastern Idaho’s Net Growth by Industry
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
2012-2022 Occupation Projections
Source: IDOL, Regional Occupation Projections 110 190 250 280 300 390 400 440 510 640 740 780 800 810 880 970
1,210 1,410 1,500 1,670
1,940 16,540
LegalArts, Design,Entertainment,Sports…
Life, Physical,Social ScienceCommunity,Social Service
Protective ServiceArchitecture,Engineering
Building,Grounds Cleaning,MaintenanceHealthcare Support
Computer,MathematicalBusiness,Financial Operations
Installation,Maintenance,RepairPersonal Care Service
ProductionEducation, Training,Library
Healthcare Practitioners,TechnicalManagement
Food Preparation,Serving RelatedConstruction,Extraction
Transportation,Material MovingSales,Related
Office,Administrative SupportTotal
Eastern Idaho
110190
250
280
300
390
400
440
510
640
740
780
800
810
880
970
1,210
1,410
1,500
1,6701,940
LegalArts, Design,Entertainment,Sports…
Life, Physical,Social ScienceCommunity,Social Service
Protective ServiceArchitecture,Engineering
Building,Grounds Cleaning,MaintenanceHealthcare Support
Computer,MathematicalBusiness,Financial Operations
Installation,Maintenance,RepairPersonal Care Service
ProductionEducation, Training,Library
Healthcare Practitioners,TechnicalManagement
Food Preparation,Serving RelatedConstruction,Extraction
Transportation,Material MovingSales,Related
Office,Administrative Support
Eastern Idaho
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
2012-2022 Occupation Projections
2012-2022 Annual Openings by Occupation
LegalArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media
Community, Social ServiceLife, Physical, Social Science
Computer, MathematicalProtective Service
Architecture, EngineeringHealthcare Support
Building, Grounds Cleaning, MaintenanceBusiness, Financial Operations
Personal Care, ServiceInstallation, Maintenance, Repair
ManagementProduction
Healthcare Practitioners, TechnicalEducation, Training, Library
Construction, ExtractionTransportation, Material Moving
Food Preparation, Serving RelatedSales, Related
Office, Administrative SupportTotal, All
Replacement
Growth
490420
360280
200190180170170150
120120
9090908080706040
20
3,510
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
2012-2022 Annual Openings by Occupation
1020
3050
30
50
50
40
50
60
40
80
80
90
90
11060
130240
260290
1020
3020
50
30
40
40
40
60
80
70
90
80
90
80140
150120
160200
LegalArts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media
Community, Social ServiceLife, Physical, Social Science
Computer, MathematicalProtective Service
Architecture, EngineeringHealthcare Support
Building, Grounds Cleaning, MaintenanceBusiness, Financial Operations
Personal Care, ServiceInstallation, Maintenance, Repair
ManagementProduction
Healthcare Practitioners, TechnicalEducation, Training, Library
Construction, ExtractionTransportation, Material Moving
Food Preparation, Serving RelatedSales, Related
Office, Administrative Support
Ran
k b
y To
tal A
nn
ual
Op
enin
gs
Replacement
Growth
Source: IDOL, Regional Projections
How Are We Doing?
67
155
145
127
747
399
199
831
239
411
549
4,664
(108)
(34)
130
199
265
490
805
822
859
969
1,357
5,745
(1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
InformationNatural ResourcesFinancial Activities
Transportation WarehousingProfessional Business Services
EducationConstruction
TradeManufacturing
Leisure HospitalityHealth Care
Total Industry
Actual Vs Projected Growth in E.I.: 2012-2015
Actual
Projected
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, QCEW
How Are We Doing?
(200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Information
Natural Resources
Financial Activities
Transportation Warehousing
Professional Business Services
Education
Construction
Trade
Manufacturing
Leisure Hospitality
Health Care
Actual Vs Projected Growth in E.I.: 2012-2015
Actual
Projected
810
560
620
(10)
610
90
(480)
70
(10)
(190)
(170)
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, QCEW
Rank Occupation2022
EmploymentAnnual
OpeningsPercentChange
2014 Median Wage
Typical Entry LevelEducation/Degree
1 Pharmacists 1,763 75 32.4% $55.31 Doctorate/Professional
2 Registered Nurses 15,511 562 26.4% $28.79 Associate’s
3 Physical Therapists 1,502 64 31.5% $37.96 Doctorate/Professional
4 Software Developers, Applications 2,117 60 22.2% $32.84 Bachelor’s
5 Physician Assistants 899 34 33.0% $43.91 Master’s
6 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2,336 107 30.6% $22.78 High School Diploma
7 Electricians 3,746 139 29.1% $21.81 High School Diploma
8 Dental Hygienists 1,357 53 21.6% $34.70 Associate’s
9 Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists 1,959 67 31.9% $23.55 Bachelor’s
10 Nurse Practitioners 723 28 30.0% $43.89 Master’s
11 Computer Systems Analysts 1,263 39 21.8% $36.47 Bachelor’s
11 Electrical Power-Line Installers & Repairers 1,002 47 21.2% $39.00 High School Diploma
13 Cost Estimators 1,241 62 35.6% $23.97 Bachelor’s Degree
14Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Except Technical &Scientific Products
7,223 229 18.0% $23.40 High School Diploma
15 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 841 32 19.8% NA Doctorate/ProfessionalSource: Idaho Department of Labor, Communications & Research Division, 2012
Idaho Hot Jobs
1Hot Jobs: Jobs that on average rank high in three major criteria — the abundance of jobs in the economy, jobs that are growing the fastest and jobs with the highest pay. 2Average annual job openings include new jobs plus replacement jobs.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Communications & Research Division, 2012
Rank Occupation2022
EmploymentAnnual
OpeningsPercent Change
2014 Median Wage
1 Software Developers, Applications 479 17 34% $27.302 Electricians 532 23 42% $21.373 Registered Nurses 1792 61 22% $26.324 Civil Engineers 330 13 27% $38.355 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators 360 14 30% $23.716 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 2336 79 26% $16.747 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 306 11 38% $25.478 Carpenters 935 33 37% $16.269 Computer User Support Specialists 477 17 30% $19.94
10 Software Developers, Systems Software 231 7 30% NA11 Dental Hygienists 193 9 35% $32.5212 Construction Laborers 1029 46 41% $13.1713 Logging Equipment Operators 310 11 30% NA14 Physical Therapists 176 8 35% $37.86
15 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Tech. & Sci. Products 1190 39 20% $21.84
East Idaho Hot Jobs
Education Utilization
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce
32%
10% 11% 12%
40%
34% 30% 24%
19%17%
18%
12%
8%10%
12%
9%
19% 21% 24%
7% 10% 11% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1973 1992 2010 2020
Required Training Level for U.S. Jobs
Master's degree orhigherBachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college/no degree
All Postsecondary
High school diploma
Less than high school
28%
56% 59% 65%
Education “Go On” Rates
Source: Idaho State Board of Education, 2014
62%
52%48%
36%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
U.S. Idaho Counties Bonneville Bingham Bannock
% E
NR
OLL
ED 1
6 M
ON
THS
AFT
ER H
IGH
SC
HO
OL
GR
AD
UA
TIO
N
Idaho Jobs and Workforce Growth
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Workforce: Ages 16-64 Job Growth
Workforce Gap
109,000
17,600
91
,40
0
Population Forecasts - EMSI August 2014 and Jobs Forecast – Idaho Department of Labor, August 2014
Thank
you! Chris St. JeorChristopher.StJeor@labor.idaho.gov
208.557.2500 ext. 3077