Mali ECHO 2014 activitiesEmergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – DG ECHO Daily map | 10/11/2017

European Migrant Crisis| Central Mediterranean Routes - Correlation with weather conditions

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

114 112Arrivals

2 655Deaths

and Missing at

sea

AIR TEMPERATURE (T2m) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (POSITIVE CORRELATION) SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (SWH) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (NEGATIVE CORRELATION)

© European Union, 2017. Map producedby JRC-EC/DG ECHO. The boundariesand the names shown on this map donot imply official endorsement oracceptance by the European Union.

Arrivals (Italian Ministry of Interior) Monthly avarage temperature (ECMWF) Arrivals (Italian Ministry of Interior) Monthly avarage Significant Wave Height (ECMWF)

N.

of

arr

ivals

Tem

pera

ture

s(2

Tm

°C)

SW

H (

m)

N.

of

arr

ivals

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2015

2016

2017

Monthly meanair temperature(2009- 2017)Source: ECMWF

NUMBER OF ARRIVALS (2015-2017) – Source: Italian Ministry of Interior

INFORMATION ON GRAPHS

AIR TEMPERATURE (T2m) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (POSITIVE CORRELATION*)Joint graph of Monthly Arrivals of Refugees in Italy and Monthly Mean AirTemperature (T2m)** over a reference (inland) point of North Africa.SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (SWH) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (NEGATIVE

CORRELATION*)Joint graph of Monthly Arrivals of Refugees in Italy and Monthly Mean SignificantWave Height (SWH)** over a reference offshore point across the CentralMediterranean Route

*A positive correlation between T2m and Arrivals means that there is a direct relationship - when T2mincreases the Number of Arrivals also increases, whereas a negative correlation between SWH andArrivals means that there is an inverse relationship - when SWH increases, the number of Arrivalsdecreases.**T2m: Air Temperature at 2-meter (height above surface). Monthly Mean T2m values have estimated byaveraging Daily Mean values taken from ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis. SWH: Significant Wave Height thatis defined as the mean wave height (though to crest) of the highest third of the waves. Monthly Mean valuesof SWH have estimated by averaging Daily Mean values from ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis.

A significant positive correlation (+0.85) exists between Monthly Arrivals andMonthly Mean Air Temperature, whereas a negative one (-0.84 ) existsbetween Monthly Arrivals and Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height.

July 2015-February 2016: Peak of arrivals (929 680) in Europe (mainly inGreece) from the Eastern Route (Source: FRONTEX).

February-July 2017: ongoing agreement between Italian Government andUN recognized Lybian Government – arrivals decrease (with emphasisfrom July 2017) resulting in lessening of correlation with weatherconditions.

SIGNIFICANT REFERENCE DATES

Major maritimeroute

Monthly Mean Air Temperatureat reference point (inland)

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Heightat reference point (offshore)

Hotspot Coastal Hub

Major Hub Minor Hub

Schengen Boundary

EU Member State

Arrivals 1 Jan - 10 Nov 2017 (UNHCR)

Deaths and missing at sea 1 Jan - 09 Oct 2017 (UNHCR)

xx

xx

Migration route

Migration Flow

Lampedusa

Pozzallo

Trapani

Taranto

N.

of

arr

ivals

Tem

pera

ture

s(T

2m

°C)

*KOSOVO

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.