Post on 21-Jan-2018
transcript
Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point?
Dr Paul MarshallDirector – Climate ChangeGreat Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Healthy reef
Bleached reef
Damaged reef
Degraded reef
Is management futile?
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Re
ef c
on
dit
ion
2050
20092009 tempera
ture
Pre-climate change
Worst-case scenario
1950 2000 2100
Re
ef c
on
dit
ion
2050
20092009 tempera
ture
Best-case scenario
RESI
LIEN
CE
RESI
LIEN
CE
Is management futile?
A framework for management action
1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem
Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment
2.2. Identify strategies for reducing riskIdentify strategies for reducing risk
Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectorsResilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors
3.3. Prioritise adaptation activitiesPrioritise adaptation activities
Climate Change Adaptation PlanClimate Change Adaptation Plan
4.4. Build resilience Build resilience
ImplementationImplementation
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potentialimpact
Adaptivecapacity
Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment
Introduction
Vulnerability of species and
species groups
Vulnerability of GBR
habitats
Enabling management
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR)Climate and climate change on the GBROceanography and climate changeResilience, climate change & the GBR
Marine microbesPlanktonMacroalgaeSeagrassesMangroves & tidal wetlandsReef-building coralsBenthic invertebratesFishesSharks & RaysSeabirdsMarine reptilesMarine mammals
Coral reefsPelagic systemsCoasts and estuariesIslands and caysGeomorphological featuresPalaeoecology
Industries and communitiesVulnerability & management
implications
Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment
Prioritising management
Humans
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potentialimpact
Adaptivecapacity
Prioritising management
Resilience Analysis (corals)
Marshall & Schuttenberg 2007
New scienceReducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold
Wooldridge and Done, 2009
Adaptation Plan
Adapting management
1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state• Restore water quality• Protect key functional groups• Protect refugia/critical habitats• Restore resilience of important components
Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.
2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources• Urgency• Importance• Feasibility
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
Potentialimpact
Adaptivecapacity
Cost Values
ManagementPriority
Adapting management
3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience• Resource-dependency
• Climate change as a common enemy
• Converting stakeholders to champions
Adapting management
Key messages
1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised
2.2. Management has never been more Management has never been more importantimportant
3.3. Management needs to adaptManagement needs to adapt• Resilience focus
• Triage
• Partnerships
4.4. Climate change is an opportunity, tooClimate change is an opportunity, too