Manfred TessaringCedefop

Polarisation of skills and jobs?

Polarisation of jobs?EU: employment increase

high-skilled non-manual occupations.

BUT also in

elementary occupations andlow-skilled non-manual occupations.

polarisation

high-skilled very low-skilled

(Employment in Europe, 2006)

USA: weak job growth in the middle

polarized pattern

albeit weighted toward the better jobs

(Wright and Dryer, 2003)

5.5

3.1

0.8

2.8

3.0

0 2 4 6

Highest

Fourth

Third

Second

Lowest

USA: Net job change 1992 - 2000 by job quality*

* Job quality (in quintiles) takes into account occupations, sectors and earnings. Source: Wright and Dwyer, 2003

Millions

Job q

ualit

y

2.1

-1.5

3.6

11.6

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

High-skilled non-manual occupations

Low-skilled non-manual occupations

Skilled manual occupations

Elementary occupations

EU15: Net employment change 1998 - 2006 by occupational groups

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Survey) Millions

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

3

Three dogmata of education research and policy

1. Ever increasing skill demand worldwideat the detriment of the low skilled

2. Human resources investments yield benefits for societyand contribute to economic & social performance

3. Skilled people are better offlife chances & labour market opportunities

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

4

Dogma 3 ‘Increasing skill demand’

• Reasons: skill-biased technological change; structural & sectoral change, tertiarisation; new work organisation; …

• BUT: for which jobs and skills does this apply?

• Do people’s skills match present and future skill needs?

How to measure ‘demand’?

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

5

Which jobs are in demand?(EU27)

• Skilled and higher skilled occupations: 2/3 of jobs • Still significant share of low and semi-skilled jobs (1/3)• Sectors: high skills in services (80%),

medium in industry (71%), lowest in agriculture (53%)

38.0%

24.3%

27.8%

9.9%High-skilled non-manual

Elementary

Skilled manual

Low-skilled non-manual

Occupational structure2006

4729 21

4754

47

6 1733

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Agriculture Industry Services

Low Medium High

Sectoral qualification structures 2005

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

6

More medium & VET skills needed?Some findings

• EU: A significant share of the future workforce will need vocational skills and competences.(Helsinki Communiqué, 2006)

• By 2015, France will require practitioners including in more traditional jobs (at intermediate level) in which there is already a skills shortage. (Chardon and Estrade, 2007- draft)

• China: ‘It is often overlooked that we need more highly qualified skilled workers and experienced technicians.’ (Xu Zhihong, President of the Beijing University, 2007)

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

7

Medium skill needs in sectors: some examples

• Logistics: new skill requirements of workers with VET qualifications, e.g. in business process control, IT logistics and management, materials tracking systems, leadership. (Schnalzer et al., 2003)

• Tourism: new trends (individualisation, older tourists, cultural and environmental awareness, ICTs, etc.) require new skills and well-trained employees at intermediate levels. (Strietska-Ilina et al., 2005)

• Nanotechnologies: shifting from basic research to production, process control, quality assurance, marketing and sales will increasingly be assigned to skilled workers with qualifications below university level. (Abicht et al., 2006)

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

8

Skill supply• Increasing educational attainment of the labour force –

outcome of past educational expansion• Young generations are higher qualified than older people• Younger women are higher qualified than younger men

42.0%

33.9%24.1% LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

1997 2005

Net change 1997-2005 by educational level

LOW: - 13.5 million

MEDIUM: +11.0 million

HIGH: +13.0 million38.7%

18.7%

42.6%

LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

EU 15

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

9

Adult* skills

EU27 (2006):

• 80 million adults are (formally) low skilled

• 60 million adults have higher skills

• 125 million adults have medium skills; out of these, ca. 64% have vocational

qualifications = ca. 80 million

* Working-age population 25-64 years

4.0

1.0

0.8

2.1

-2 0 2 4 6 8

High-skilled non-manual

Low-skilled non-manual

Skilled manual

Elementary occupations

HighMediumLow

EU15: Net employment change 1998 - 2006 by occupational groups and highest level of education attained

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Survey)

Level of education:

Millions

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

11

What are elementary occupations? (ISCO 9)

• Requirements: knowledge and experience to perform mostly simple and routine tasks, only limited personal initiative or judgement.

• Main tasks: selling goods in streets, doorkeeping and property watching, cleaning, washing, pressing, and working as labourers in mining, agriculture and fishing, construction and manufacturing.

• Most occupations in this group require low skills. (Source: ILO)

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

12

Higher skills in elementary occupations: overqualification or higher demands?

100

200

300

400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Medium

Low

High

Elementary occupations: employment change 1998 - 2006 by educational attainment, EU15 (1998 = 100)

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Surveys) 1998 = 100

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

13

Working in elementary occupations (compared to all occupations; EU15, 2006)

All elementary occupations 2006: 17 million (=10% of total employment);

increase 1998-2006: + 3.6 million

Some patterns: Women: 52% (total: 44%) Temporary job: women 38% (total: 4.3%) Part-time job: women 56% (total: 36%) Age: young men: 18% (total: 10%)

older women: 30% (total: 23%) Low skilled: 58% (total: 28%) Second job: particularly women: 6.6% (total: 3.6%) Earnings: ca. 30% below average (limited data)

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

14

Matching supply and demand

• Asynchrony between skills supply and demand adjustments

• Structural or transitional mismatches?

• Quantitative or qualitative mismatches

EDEX project conclusions: Supply of qualified people is relatively independent of demand

Demand for qualifications follows supply (Béduwé and Planas,

2003)

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

15

Reasons for skill mismatches

• ‘Overqualification’

• Structural unemployment

• Voluntary or not?

• Temporary phenomena in the process of school-to-work transition

• Difficult employment for people re-entering work

• Disparities of economic and employment opportunities between countries – brain drain

more research is needed!

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

16

Implications of skill mismatch and challenges for policy

• Waste of human and financial resources

• Endangers transition to knowledge society

• Counteracts future upskilling needs, also in context of demographic decline

• Disadvantages in early work career may hardly be reversed high future costs

• Impairs people’s motivation to upskill and participate in lifelong learning

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

17

Thank you for your attention!

manfred.tessaring@cedefop.europa.eu