Post on 24-Dec-2015
transcript
Measuring Cohort Change in South Dakota
Counties
Eric Guthrie2014 Applied Demography Conference
San Antonio, Texas
Rural Decline, the usual story…
Rural Decline and Urbanization
• The best and the most promising students go off to college or leave to pursue other interests, or join the military, and seldom return.
• The plague of rural poverty and drug abuse has taken its toll on some of the most rural areas.
Rural Population Rebound
• The other story you may have heard is that of rural resurgence.
• Vibrant communities and areas that are attracting people to a high quality way of life where there is a sense of community.
• Population rebounds of the 1970s and 1990s.
Research Question
Is there a generational difference in the migration patterns in rural South Dakota?
South Dakota Population Over Time
South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix
Beale Code Descriptions
Metropolitan CountiesCode Description1 Counties in metro areas of 1 million population or more2 Counties in metro areas of 250,000 to 1 million population3* Counties in metro areas of fewer than 250,000 population
Nonmetropolitan Counties4 Urban population of 20,000 or more, adjacent to a metro area5* Urban population of 20,000 or more, not adjacent to a metro area6* Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent to a metro area7* Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area8* Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area9* Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, not adjacent to a metro area
South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix
South Dakota Population by Beale Code
Average Population by Beale Code
How am I defining the generations
Generation
Born Age in 2010 Census
Common Generation Name
1930 Between 1920 and 1930
80-90 Good Warriors
1940 Between 1930 and 1940
70-80 Lucky Few
1950 Between 1940 and 1950
60-70 Lucky Few/Baby Boomers
1960 Between 1950 and 1960
50-60 Baby Boomers
1970 Between 1960 and 1970
40-50 Baby Boomers/Gen X
1980 Between 1970 and 1980
30-40 Gen X
Building the Generations
• I used the data from the 9 decennial censuses that have occurred since 1930.
• I made tables that put the generations together such that the population for one cohort was matched with the cohort ten years older in the following census.
• I did this for each of South Dakota’s 66 counties.
Building the Generations
For example the 1930 generation was built my using the populations from the following cohorts: Census Age Cohorts
Used
1930 0-9
1940 10-19
1950 20-29
1960 30-39
1970 40-49
1980 50-59
1990 60-69
2000 70-79
2010 80-89
Calculating the Rates of Change
• Fairly straight forward calculation for all of the cohorts for all of the counties in South Dakota first by sex then in total.
P(X+10)-PX
______________
PX
Results
Is there a difference between the cohort change patterns for people currently between 30 & 40 (generation 1980) and 40 & 50 (generation 1970) and generations 1930 through 1960 in rural South Dakota?
Counties with significant positive differences between older and
younger GenerationsCounty Sig.BealeAurora .001 9Beadle .041 7Brule .046 9Butte .039 6Campbell* .017 9Clark .016 9Deuel .019 9Douglas .008 9Edmunds .032 9
County Sig.BealeFaulk .049 9Gregory .006 9Hamlin .006 9Hanson .002 8Harding .030 9Hutchinson .033 8Jerauld .023 9Kingsbury .026 9Lincoln .001 3
County Sig.BealeMarshall .024 9McCook .002 3McPherson .048 9Mellette .000 9Turner .036 3Union .007 3Walworth* .031 7Ziebach .007 8
Results by Beale Code
Beale CodeNumber of
Significant Results9 168 37 26 15 03 4
The results for the cohort in their 40s was less significant,
but there are some. County Sig. BealeBeadle .000 7Bon Homme† .050 9Brown .003 5Brule .045 9Grant .006 7Lincoln .038 3Marshall .049 9Perkins .042 8Spink .003 9
Beale CodeNumber of
Significant Results9 48 17 26 05 13 1
Some of the most significant results
• Harding County
Some of the most significant results
• Butte County
Thank youI could go on for quite a while, but that is all I have time for today.
Thank you very much for the opportunity to present my research to you today.
Are there any questions?
General References
Carr, P. J., & Kefalas, M. (2009). Hollowing out the middle : the rural brain drain and what it means for America. Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press
Economic Research Service. (2013) 2013 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. United States Department of Agriculture. Accessed on October 25, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx.
Johnson, K. M., & Fuguitt, G. V. (2000). Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950-1995. Rural Sociology, 65(1), 27-49.
Michael McCurry, E. G., et al. (Forthcoming). Population Projections for South Dakota and its Counties.
Reding, N. (2009). Methland : the death and life of an American small town (1st U.S. ed.). New York: Bloomsbury.
Winchester, B. (2012). Continuing the Trend: The Brain Gain of the Newcomers. In M. V. Joyce Hoelting (Ed.), (pp. 23). Minnesota: Extension Center for Community Vitality.
Census ReferencesUS Census Bureau. (1930/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1940/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1950/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1960/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1980/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1990/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:
Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (2000). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table.
US Census Bureau. (2010). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table.