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MEDIS is supported within the Programme on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development, Part A: Environment and Sustainable
Development, Key Action 2: Global Change, Climate and Biodiversity; Contract no. EVK2-CT-2001-00092)
http://www.uni-muenster.de/Umweltforschung/medis/index.html
Reducing Climate-Change Reducing Climate-Change Related Vulnerabilities to Related Vulnerabilities to
Drought on Drought on Mediterranean Islands Mediterranean Islands through Holistic Water through Holistic Water Management PracticesManagement Practices
Reducing Climate-Change Reducing Climate-Change Related Vulnerabilities to Related Vulnerabilities to
Drought on Drought on Mediterranean Islands Mediterranean Islands through Holistic Water through Holistic Water Management PracticesManagement Practices
Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium
Center for Environmental ResearchUniversity of Münster, Germany
Manfred A. Lange and the MEDIS Consortium
Center for Environmental ResearchUniversity of Münster, Germany
SICCIA; Grainau, Germany, June 28 – July 2, 2004
SICCIA; Grainau, Germany, June 28 – July 2, 2004
Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background Global climate change will have various consequences
for natural and human systems In general, it will lead to an intensification of the
water cycle enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation
events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions
of the world Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will
have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…
and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity
The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions enhanced vulnerability to drought
Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism
Global climate change will have various consequences for natural and human systems
In general, it will lead to an intensification of the water cycle enhanced frequencies of floods and extreme precipitation
events in regions traditionally prone to this threat and increased water scarcity in already water deficient regions
of the world Shifts in the amount and timing of precipitation will
have severe consequences for arid to semi-arid regions…
and will result in increased vulnerabilities of communities and ecosystems to water scarcity
The Mediterranean Basin is characterized by arid to semi- arid climate conditions enhanced vulnerability to drought
Problems to be faced are exacerbated on islands of the Mediterranean as they rely on precipitation as the primary supply mechanism
Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity,
adaptability) Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are
relatively stable vulnerability f (adaptability)
Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies
In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered: Physical/Environmental dimension Economical/technical dimension Social/Political dimension
Aspects will have to be considered holistically interdisciplinarity
Views of stakeholders will be essential stakeholder involvement
Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptability)
Assuming that exposure and sensitivities are relatively stable vulnerability f (adaptability)
Reducing vulnerability requires effective adaptation strategies
In devising effective adaptation strategies, a number of aspects/dimensions need to be considered: Physical/Environmental dimension Economical/technical dimension Social/Political dimension
Aspects will have to be considered holistically interdisciplinarity
Views of stakeholders will be essential stakeholder involvement
Vulnerability reduction
Adaptive strategies
inwater
management
Physical/ environmental
dimension
Economical/ technical dimension
Social/ regulatory /poli-tical dimension
Stakeholder Involvement
Introduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/BackgroundIntroduction/Background In the following, I will…briefly describe the MEDIS project,address a few concepts related to adaptation, look at issues affecting present
vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,
discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,
suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,
and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project
In the following, I will…briefly describe the MEDIS project,address a few concepts related to adaptation, look at issues affecting present
vulnerabilities to droughts related to the three aforementioned dimensions,
discuss briefly how global change might affect some of the vulnerabilities,
suggest various (but not comprehensively) strategies to enhance adaptive capacities,
and will concentrate on islands in the Mediterranean in the context of the MEDIS Project
MEDIS - MEDIS - Goals and ObjectivesGoals and ObjectivesMEDIS - MEDIS - Goals and ObjectivesGoals and ObjectivesTo put simply:To put simply:
How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and
demand of water by taking into account various favourable and
unfavourable factors affecting that balance and
by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD
How can we achieve a sustainable balance between supply and
demand of water by taking into account various favourable and
unfavourable factors affecting that balance and
by complying with the requirements of the EU-WFD
What is to be done?What is to be done?What is to be done?What is to be done?
Assessment of present characteristics: Hydrology, agriculture, socio-economy
Recommendations for a sustainable water management
Consultation with main user groups and consensus building
Hearings of experts; development of
feasible/justifiable recommendations
Proposals for a sustainable water management in the
Mediterranean
Compa-rison
between
islands
Compa-rison
between
islands
Scena-rio
studies
AA
rrooaaddmmaapp
Crete: Island Report
Stakeholder
Involvement/ input
=Intra-Island consultation
=Inter-Island consultation
Recomm-
endations
EC & capitals
Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work?Who is doing the work? Dep. de Ingenieria del Terreno
Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya Spain
Regional Governor of Crete Greece
Universitat de les Illes Balears Dept. of Physics, Group of Meteorology Spain
Institute for Sociology University of Cyprus Cyprus
Système de l’Environment University of Corsica France
Centre for Environmental Research University of Münster Germany
Dipartimento di Costruzioni e Tecnologie Avanzate Universita' di Messina Italy
Institute for Geophysics University of Münster Germany
Foundation for Research and Technology, Hellas FORTH Greece
Institute for Geoinformatics University of Muenster Germany
National Agricultural Research Foundation Greece
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology National Environmental Research Centre United Kingdom
Adaptation/Adaptive Adaptation/Adaptive CapacityCapacity
Adaptation/Adaptive Adaptation/Adaptive CapacityCapacity
Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires: resources available for adaptation ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these
resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so
Such resources include:• natural resources,
• human and financial capital,
• knowledge of risks
• appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks
• appropriate technologies and methods
Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures
Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles
Mobilizing adaptive capacity requires: resources available for adaptation ability of those who need to adapt to deploy these
resources effectively and their readiness/willingness to do so
Such resources include:• natural resources,
• human and financial capital,
• knowledge of risks
• appropriate social institutions geared to managing these risks
• appropriate technologies and methods
Stringent policies and regulations are an essential prerequisite for the development of adaptation measures
Adaptation strategies require the incorporation of sustainable development principles
Physical/Environmental Physical/Environmental DimensionDimension
Physical/Environmental Physical/Environmental DimensionDimension
Mediterranean Basin has experienced continuous decline in precipitation this trend is likely to continue
Mediterranean Basin has experienced continuous decline in precipitation this trend is likely to continue
Substantial evaporation of available water further increase to be expected
Substantial evaporation of available water further increase to be expected
G. Constantinou, pers. comm.
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension
Demand likely to increase in the foreseeable future, particularly under conditions of global change
Demand likely to increase in the foreseeable future, particularly under conditions of global change
Projections of water demand for different sectors on Cyprus, assuming that agricultural demand will stay constant and not considering any global change effects
G. Constantinou, pers. comm.
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental DimensionDimension
(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c) (d)(d)
Maximum 2m-temperatures for 1960-1990 (a) and Maximum 2m-temperatures for 1960-1990 (a) and 2070-2100 (b) and summer precipitations for 1960-2070-2100 (b) and summer precipitations for 1960-
1990 (c) and 2070-2100 (d) derived from the regional 1990 (c) and 2070-2100 (d) derived from the regional climate REMO 5.1 and based on the Hadley-Centre-climate REMO 5.1 and based on the Hadley-Centre-
GCM HadAM3H (Semmler, pers. comm.)GCM HadAM3H (Semmler, pers. comm.)
Regional climate model results suggest increasing temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation for the Mediterranean Basin
Regional climate model results suggest increasing temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation for the Mediterranean Basin
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental Dimension:Dimension:
Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Physical /Environmental Physical /Environmental Dimension:Dimension:
Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options Reduce water consumption
Water pricing; quotas Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)
Change water allocation Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment,
create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors
Reduce losses Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD) Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution
networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)
Increase utilisation of additional water resources Waste water recycling Utilisation of brackish water Rainwater harvesting
Reduce water consumption Water pricing; quotas Incentives (subsidise water saving not consumption)
Change water allocation Support sectors accounting for maximum GDP and employment,
create incentives to save water for water-intensive sectors
Reduce losses Eliminate loss of water to sea (SGD) Reduce losses and contamination of water in distribution
networks (e.g., on Cyprus: annual loss of 40 Mm3 = 15% of total demand; 23% of total domestic demand; in Paphos: 30%)
Increase utilisation of additional water resources Waste water recycling Utilisation of brackish water Rainwater harvesting
Economical DimensionEconomical DimensionEconomical DimensionEconomical Dimension Agriculture predominant user of water on the islands Agriculture predominant user of water on the islands
However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca
Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca
Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability
However, agriculture contributes only insignificantly to GDP (1,5%)and employment (2,4%) on Mallorca
Tourism, which requires significantly less water contributes substantially to the GDP (83,4%) and employment (73,3%) of Mallorca
Both sectors likely to suffer from reduced water availability
Economical Dimension:Economical Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Economical Dimension:Economical Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs
Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)
Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water
intensive species Promote cultivation of crops that have a high
potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)
Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology
Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors
Support sectors with high economic potential and small water needs
Change agricultural practices (quantity, quality of water)
Eliminate/reduce subsidies for water prices Encourage changes in cultivated crops to less-water
intensive species Promote cultivation of crops that have a high
potential on the domestic and the foreign market (eliminate wasting products and water)
Provide assistance in capacity building of farmers and for investments in modern irrigation technology
Provide economic incentives for rational water use in all sectors
Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political Dimension Inadequate/false perception of the water
issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)
Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)
Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)
Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)
Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored
Violations of laws and directives are not penalized
Inadequate/false perception of the water issue (‘water is only a problem when it is scarce’)
Competition for water (sectors, regions, municipalities, individual users)
Illegal extraction (‘wild’ wells)
Traditional ‘ownership’ (‘this water belongs to our family…’)
Existing rules and regulations are not/only inadequately monitored
Violations of laws and directives are not penalized
Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political Dimension Complex, diverse and overlapping responsibilities on the
national scale
Complex, diverse and overlapping responsibilities on the national scale
Main structure of water administration on CyprusI. Iacovidis, pers. Comm.
Social/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionSocial/Political DimensionWater management governed by
central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)
Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU-WFD)
Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis
Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources
Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations
Water management governed by central/’outside’ jurisdiction (‘Athens bureaucrats’)
Political decisions/directives from abroad (EU-WFD)
Political decisions on new laws and regulations often with insufficient/false factual basis
Inadequate policies aimed at promoting particular utilisation of water resources
Inadequate agricultural policies and recommendations
Social/PoliticalSocial/Political Dimension: Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Social/PoliticalSocial/Political Dimension: Dimension:Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building
Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction
Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations
Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration
Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers
Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures
Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making
Public awareness campaign (water use, ownership, conflicts); capacity building
Implement a more complete monitoring of water extraction
Improve enforcement of existing rules and regulations
Simplify/enhance efficiency of water administration
Transfer of power to regional and local decision makers
Encourage stakeholder-controlled water management structures
Ensure/improve adequate factual basis for political decision making
ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsThe (future) supply of water on Mediterranean
islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation
Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation
Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures
First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions
Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible
The (future) supply of water on Mediterranean islands appears critical and requires new strategies that are to be based on a solid factual foundation
Current climate projections for the Mediterranean Basin imply enhanced summer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation
Reducing vulnerabilities to drought will have to be based on holistically and interdisciplinarily derived strategies/measures
First recommendations aimed at reducing vulnerabilities and at realizing sustainable water management have been formulated in the context of environmental, economical and social/political dimensions
Without an appropriate involvement of major stakeholders on the islands, such solutions will not be feasible