Metodos e Ferramentas para Metodos e Ferramentas para Modelagem Preditiva de Modelagem Preditiva de

EspeciesEspecies

19-20 June 200219-20 June 2002

Campinas, S.P., BrasilCampinas, S.P., Brasil

Large-scale EcologyLarge-scale Ecology

Most organismal ‘ecology’ done at small spatial scales Most organismal ‘ecology’ done at small spatial scales (>80% (>80% ~1 m ~1 m22))

Systematics – large scale, but no ecology!Systematics – large scale, but no ecology! Critical nature of large-scale applicationsCritical nature of large-scale applications

– Whole-geographic-range phenomena Whole-geographic-range phenomena E.g., potential for invasionE.g., potential for invasion E.g., climate change effectsE.g., climate change effects

– Effects of biogeography, historyEffects of biogeography, history Mars vs leavesMars vs leaves

– Emergent properties at larger scalesEmergent properties at larger scales Need for a new perspective that bridges between Need for a new perspective that bridges between

ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view ecology and systematics, and takes a large-scale view of biodiversity of biodiversity

EUROPEAN EXPEDITIONS IN THE 18TH CENTURY

HumboldtHumboldt MalaspinaMalaspina

NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, PARIS, FRANCE

PRE-DARWININAN SYSTEMATISTS OF

THE 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES

LafresnayeLafresnaye

LessonLesson

StricklandStrickland

SwainsonSwainson

DESCRIBING BIODIVERSITY AFTER DARWIN

Hartlaub Gray CassinHartlaub Gray Cassin

SOLDIERS AND EXPLORERS

MearnsMearnsXantusXantus

CraveriCraveri

AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY, NY, USA

IMMIGRANT NATURALISTS

BoucardBoucard

BotteriBotteri

CATALOGUECATALOGUEOF BRITISH OF BRITISH MUSEUMMUSEUM

BIRDSBIRDS

HartertHartert SalvadoriSalvadori SharpeSharpe

SclaterSclater

THE BIOLOGIA CENTRALI-AMERICANA

Osbert SalvinOsbert Salvin F. DuCane F. DuCane GodmanGodman

NATURAL HISTORY MUSEUM, TRING, ENGLAND

SOCIEDAD MEXICANA DE HISTORIA NATURAL

VilladaVillada

HerreraHerrera

DugèsDugès

THE UNITED STATES BIOLOGICAL SURVEY

E. W. Nelson E. A. GoldmanE. W. Nelson E. A. Goldman

A. WetmoreA. Wetmore

H. OberholserH. Oberholser

A. J. Van A. J. Van RossemRossem

W. De Witt MillerW. De Witt Miller

SystematicSystematics in the s in the 20th 20th centurycentury

Wilmot W. Brown’s Specimens, World MuseumWilmot W. Brown’s Specimens, World Museum

The Check-The Check-listlistof Mexican of Mexican BirdsBirds

L. GriscomL. Griscom

H. FriedmannH. Friedmann

R. T. MooreR. T. Moore

A. MillerA. Miller

Chester Lamb’s specimens, Moore Lab. of ZoologyChester Lamb’s specimens, Moore Lab. of Zoology

Research at the Research at the NationalNational

University in University in MexicoMexico

Allan PhillipsAllan Phillips

Eduardo CaballeroEduardo CaballeroMiguel Alvarez del ToroMiguel Alvarez del Toro

Rafael Martín del CampoRafael Martín del Campo

G. Lowery C. G. Sibley R. W. StorerG. Lowery C. G. Sibley R. W. Storer

G. M. Sutton A. S. LeopoldG. M. Sutton A. S. Leopold

NewNewExplorationsExplorations

in Mexicoin Mexico

The new generationThe new generationof ornithologistsof ornithologists

MUSEO DE ZOOLOGÍA, UNAM, MEXICO CITY

BIRDS OF MEXICO IN THE “WORLD MUSEUM”

BiasesBiases

Knowledge of BiodiversityKnowledge of Biodiversity

Knowledge of biology

Fre

quen

cy

Species with detailed autecological studies across geography

Species with point information

Species with physiological data

Fuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIBFuente: 17 bases de datos pertenecientes al SNIB

Reptiles mexicanosMéxico

21%

Europa2%

ND5%

Canadá1%

EUA72%

FishUniversity of Florida

FishTulane University

FishUniversity of Michigan

Fish“World Museum”

Gaps in Knowledge of BiodiversityGaps in Knowledge of Biodiversity

Inferring into Gaps with Inferring into Gaps with Predictive ModelingPredictive Modeling

Mario del Toro Aviles – all Mario del Toro Aviles – all specimensspecimens

Mario del Toro Aviles – 1936 OctoberMario del Toro Aviles – 1936 October

Mario del Toro Aviles – 1937 JulyMario del Toro Aviles – 1937 July

Mario del Toro Aviles – 1949 JuneMario del Toro Aviles – 1949 June

2-4 June

6 June

7 June

16 June

19-22 June

AvailabilityAvailability

The Species AnalystThe Species Analysthttp://speciesanalyst.nethttp://speciesanalyst.net

REMIBREMIBhttp://www.conabio.gob.mxhttp://www.conabio.gob.mx

SpeciesLink (Brasil!)SpeciesLink (Brasil!)http://www.cria.org.http://www.cria.org.brbr

77 Participating Institutions I77 Participating Institutions I Academy of Natural Sciences, PhiladelphiaAcademy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia Agriculture CanadaAgriculture Canada American Museum of Natural HistoryAmerican Museum of Natural History Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Auburn University MuseumAuburn University Museum Australian MuseumAustralian Museum Bell Museum, University of MinnesotaBell Museum, University of Minnesota Bernice P. Bishop MusemBernice P. Bishop Musem Brigham Young UniversityBrigham Young University Burke Museum, University of WashingtonBurke Museum, University of Washington California Academy of SciencesCalifornia Academy of Sciences California WeedsCalifornia Weeds Canadian Museum of NatureCanadian Museum of Nature Carnegie Museum of Natural HistoryCarnegie Museum of Natural History Cornell University Museum of VertebratesCornell University Museum of Vertebrates Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USPDepartamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biociências, USP Departamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, UnicampDepartamento de Botânica, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp Departamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USPDepartamento de Entomologia, Fitopatologia e Zoologia Agrícola, ESALQ/USP ECOSURECOSUR EMAN-Frog WatchEMAN-Frog Watch Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP)Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Riberão Preto (USP) Field Museum of Natural HistoryField Museum of Natural History Florida State MuseumFlorida State Museum Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern MississippiGulf Coast Research Laboratory Museum, University of Southern Mississippi Illinois Natural History SurveyIllinois Natural History Survey

77 Participating Institutions II77 Participating Institutions II Instituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro ExperimentalInstituto Biológico de Campinas, Centro Experimental Instituto de Biologia, UNAMInstituto de Biologia, UNAM Instituto de BotânicaInstituto de Botânica Instituto Nacional de BiodiversidadInstituto Nacional de Biodiversidad Instituto Nacional PolitecnicoInstituto Nacional Politecnico Los Angeles County Natural History MuseumLos Angeles County Natural History Museum Louisiana State University Museum of Natural ScienceLouisiana State University Museum of Natural Science Michigan State University MuseumMichigan State University Museum Milwaukee Public MuseumMilwaukee Public Museum Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP)Museu de Zoologia, USP (MZUSP) Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, ParisMuseum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard UniversityMuseum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New MexicoMuseum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, BerkeleyMuseum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley Nebraska State MuseumNebraska State Museum Real Jardin Botanico, MadridReal Jardin Botanico, Madrid Redpath Museum, McGill UniversityRedpath Museum, McGill University Royal Ontario MuseumRoyal Ontario Museum San Diego Natural History MuseumSan Diego Natural History Museum Scripps Institution of OceanographyScripps Institution of Oceanography Slater Museum, University of Puget SoundSlater Museum, University of Puget Sound Swedish Museum of Natural HistorySwedish Museum of Natural History Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Texas Natural History CollectionsTexas Natural History Collections Texas Tech University MuseumTexas Tech University Museum Tulane University Natural History MuseumTulane University Natural History Museum

77 Participating Institutions III77 Participating Institutions III U.S. Breeding Bird SurveyU.S. Breeding Bird Survey U.S. National Museum of Natural HistoryU.S. National Museum of Natural History UNAM-Facultad de CienciasUNAM-Facultad de Ciencias UNAM-Institution de BiologiaUNAM-Institution de Biologia UNAM-Instituto de EcologiaUNAM-Instituto de Ecologia UNESP, Campus de São José do Rio PretoUNESP, Campus de São José do Rio Preto Universidad Autonoma de ChapingoUniversidad Autonoma de Chapingo Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo LeonUniversidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon Universidad Autonoma MetropolitanaUniversidad Autonoma Metropolitana Universidad de SonoraUniversidad de Sonora University of Alabama Ichthyological CollectionUniversity of Alabama Ichthyological Collection University of Alaska MuseumUniversity of Alaska Museum University of Alberta MuseumUniversity of Alberta Museum University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona University of Colorado MuseumUniversity of Colorado Museum University of Georgia MuseumUniversity of Georgia Museum University of Kansas Natural History MuseumUniversity of Kansas Natural History Museum University of Michigan Museum of ZoologyUniversity of Michigan Museum of Zoology University of Nevada - RenoUniversity of Nevada - Reno University of Oklahoma MuseumUniversity of Oklahoma Museum University of Texas, ArlingtonUniversity of Texas, Arlington University of Texas, AustinUniversity of Texas, Austin University of Texas, El PasoUniversity of Texas, El Paso Utah Museum of Natural HistoryUtah Museum of Natural History Yale Peabody MuseumYale Peabody Museum

TSA Use ITSA Use I

Monthly Use of TSA

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Nov-01

Date

Nu

mb

er o

f h

its

TSA Geographic Distribution of TSA Geographic Distribution of UseUse

Biodiversity InformationBiodiversity Information

Biases Biases – Presence-onlyPresence-only– Distributed natureDistributed nature– Gaps of unknown significanceGaps of unknown significance– Skewed distribution of knowledgeSkewed distribution of knowledge– Bias with respect to geography (ecology?)Bias with respect to geography (ecology?)

ChallengesChallenges– ComputerizationComputerization– GeoreferencingGeoreferencing– IdentificationIdentification– PrecisionPrecision– AVAILABILITY/ACCESS (how much in country?)AVAILABILITY/ACCESS (how much in country?)

Factors that Limit Species’ Factors that Limit Species’ DistributionsDistributions

HistoryHistory– Limited dispersalLimited dispersal– SpeciationSpeciation– ExtinctionExtinction

EcologyEcology– Abiotic environmentAbiotic environment– Biotic environmentBiotic environment

InteractionsInteractions– CompetitionCompetition– PredationPredation– ParasitismParasitism– MutualismsMutualisms

Digital Elevation ModelsDigital Elevation Models

Climate DataClimate Data

Climate Change over Last CenturyClimate Change over Last Century

Climate Change over Next CenturyClimate Change over Next Century

Satellite Data and LULC DataSatellite Data and LULC Data

Environmental Combinations - Environmental Combinations - ChinaChina

Environmental Combinations – Environmental Combinations – North AmericaNorth America