Mid-Atlantic Renewable Energy Association

The Sun Will Shine…after Rebates End and S-RECs Dim

MAREA Monthly MeetingTEK Park, Breinigsville, PAJuly 26, 2011

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Introductions Bill Hennessy bill@berkssolar.com 484-560-4666

Vera Cole vera.cole@comcast.net 215-258-0526

Topics for Tonight

PA Sunshine Rebate S-RECs Market Electricity Prices Financial & Environmental Outcomes Looking Forward

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Ranked by Grid-Connected PV Capacity Installed in 2010

4U.S. Solar Market Trends 2010 / June 2011 (IREC)

PA Sunshine Rebate Currently

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Current Step Size of StepTotal Amount Received in 

Step

Amount Remaining 

Residential PV  4 10 MW 5.708 MW 4.292 MW

Small Business PV 

4 27 MW 14.716 MW 12.284 MW

Solar Hot Water  1 1500 Systems 621 879 systems

Battery Back‐up  1 10 MW 0 10 MW

High Cost ($/Watt)

Median Cost ($/Watt)

Low Cost ($/Watt)

Median System Size 

(kW)

Residential  $10.83  $5.38  $2.84  7.77

Small Business  $7.68  $4.90  $3.72  29.14

http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/grants_loans_tax_credits/10395/PA_Sunshine_Solar_Program/821790

After PA Sunshine Rebate

Program opened May 2009 Expected prices $8 - $10/W (rebate $2.25) Current price $5.38/W (rebate $0.75)

Approved Solar Electric (PV) Installers List Now 629 (462 in PA) Now, 75 NABCEP-certified in PA List Will No Longer Exist (!)

Production meters? Do it yourselfers? Federal Tax Incentive Continues

2016, no cap, 30%6

PA SREC Prices

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Current PA AEPS Solar Requirements

8http://paaeps.com/credit/overview.do

PA’s Open Borders20% of solar (MW)

registered in PA is located out of state

We can sell RECs to: Ohio Washington, DC

We buy RECs from: Washington, DC Delaware Maryland New Jersey Virginia West Virginia Illinois (portions) Indiana (portions) North Carolina (portions)

9http://paaeps.com/credit/showQualified.do?todo=qualified

PA Avg Residential Retail Electricity Prices (¢/kWh)

10http://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html (Average Price by State by Provider (EIA-861))

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Size 8 kW

Unit Cost 5.38 $/W

System Cost 43,040 $

Fed Tax Credit 12,912 30%

Final Cost 30,128 $

Annual Generation 1,300 kWh/kW

Net generation 10,400 kWh

REC net (AT) 65 $/REC

Years of RECs 10 years

System Life 25 years

Lifetime Elec Cost 0.090 $/kWh

Electricity Price 0.15 $/kWh

Payback 13.5 years

Avoided Emissions 7,904 tons /yr

Total Avoided Emissions 197,600 tons

Looking Forward PUC Solar Working Group

Real-time pricing (time-of-use) Billing transparency (net metering) Net metering from competitive suppliers Net metering installation/tariff timeline

House Bill 1580 Accelerate RPS ramp up (2012 – 2015) “Closes” PA borders

MAREA Research

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Proposed PA AEPS Solar Requirements

13http://www.mainlinerenewables.com/wp-content/uploads/HB1580_Draft_ChrisRoss_05_19_11.pdf

Ranked by Grid-Connected PV CumulativeInstalled Capacity through 2010

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Cumulative U.S. Grid-tied Photovoltaic Installations (2001-2010)

15U.S. Solar Market Trends 2010 / June 2011 (IREC)

PA-Solar Energy Industries Association (PASEIA) www.mseia.net/PA.html

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Thank you!

Pennsylvania Renewable Energy & Sustainable Living FestivalKempton, PA

Sept 16, 17 and 18

www.paenergyfest.org

See you there!