Post on 27-Dec-2015
transcript
Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate JobsMigration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs
by
Irene MoscaRobert E. Wright
Department of EconomicsUniversity of Strathclyde
November 4, 2009
“ “Making An Impact – Universities and the Regional Economy”Woburn House Conference Centre, London
Introduction
One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom
Why?
•Not a great deal is known about this.
•Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales
•Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services
•Such Information is being fed into the CGE analysis
Slide 2/23
Policy Relevance: Scotland
• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland
• Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)
• “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends
•Costs versus benefits of “free higher education”
•Over-education and under-employment issues
Slide 3/23
Table 1Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups,
1994/95-2007/08
Type of Student: Scotland UK
Full-time 26.2 37.5
Part-time 99.6 68.3
Under-graduates 38.1 46.5
Post-graduates 51.5 49.4
Foreign 100.4 108.8
Science 55.7 66.4
Non-science 30.3 36.2
All students 41.2 47.1
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Table 2Place of Domicile of Students at Scottish Higher Education Institutes,
1994/05 and 2007/08
1994/05 2007/08
Place of domicile: Numbers % Numbers %
Scotland 103,426 69.5 148,460 70.6
England 20,819 14.0 21,560 10.3
Northern Ireland 4,443 3.0 4,800 2.3
Wales 645 0.4 675 0.3
Foreign16,915 11.4 33,895 16.1
Missing2,660 1.8 795 0.4
All148,908 100 210,185 100
Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency
Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.
Match data from three datasets:
(1) Students in Higher Education Institutions(2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions
•13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007
(3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey
•1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03
DataData
Slide 10/23
The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: (1) Place of domiciledomicile(2) Place of studystudy(3) Place of employmentemployment: Six months after graduation: Six months after graduation(4)(4) Place of employment: 36 months after graduationPlace of employment: 36 months after graduation
This allows us to identify different migration types:
““movers versus stayers”movers versus stayers”
Table 3Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix
Place of Study
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Domicile
England 100%
Scotland 100%
Wales 100%
NI 100%
Table 4Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix
Place of Employment Six months
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Study
England 100%
Scotland 100%
Wales 100%
NI 100%
Table 5Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix
Place of Employment 36 months
England Scotland Wales NI
Placeof Employment
Six Months
England 100%
Scotland 100%
Wales 100%
NI 100%
Table 6
Percentage of Graduates Whose Place of Work is the Same as Their Place of Study (6 months)
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 England 97.3 97.5 97.5 97.4 Scotland 85.6 86.0 86.0 87.7 Wales 64.0 62.1 62.1 64.0 Northern Ireland 94.3 94.5 94.5 94.5
Source: HESA
Table 7
Percentage of Graduates From Different Regions Working in England (6 months), 2005/06
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Scotland 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.8 Wales 35.2 37.0 35.0 35.3 Northern Ireland 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.3
Source: HESA
What are the determinants of graduate migration flows?
• Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is
related to observable characteristics
• Analysis for today focuses on the Scottish experience
• Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled graduates who
studied at Scottish higher education institutions
• Consider “First-degree graduates” and “post-graduate graduates”
separately
• Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for
comparative purposes
FINDINGS
Scottish-domiciled “first-degree graduates”:
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:
•Male•Full-time•Black ethnic background•Graduated at age 22 (inverted U-shape)•Science (or Science-led)•1st Class degree•Russell Group university•Moved to go to HEI•Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region)•Decline between 2002-2006
Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates”
Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:
• Male• Full-time• Non-white ethnic background• Graduated at age 26 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led)• Russell Group university• Moved to go to HEI• Regional effects of domicile less pronounced• Little change in 2002-2006
How big are these effects?
STEP 1: Create an hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “A”
STEP (2) Create another hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the following characteristics: •Male•Full-time•White ethnic background•Graduated at age 22 •Science•1st Class degree•Russell Group university
and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”
STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities
Predicted Probability of Migrating :Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates
Graduate A Graduate B
Scotland 3.9% 21.5%
Predicted Probability of Migrating :Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates
Graduate A Graduate B
Scotland 3.9% 21.5%
England 0.8% 2.0%
Northern Ireland 8.1% 26.7%
Wales 3.1% 11.4%
Conclusions?